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re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?
Posted on 8/8/24 at 11:57 am to GrizzlyAlloy
Posted on 8/8/24 at 11:57 am to GrizzlyAlloy
It really is hard to say because I don't know what a conservative sales price is at this moment. Product sales price is, by a mile, the most important variable so I'll be excited for the SWA DFS to show if they still think it'll average $30k/tonne. Here's what I come up with for the SWA project alone if they get the 1.82% royalty
$15k sales price: $1.78
$20k sales price: $4.28
$25k sales price: $6.79
$30k sales price: $9.29
Remember that this reflects Standard owning 55% and Equinor owning 45% of the project as it stands.
Also remember that they talk as though East Texas will be a multiple of SWA, although I don't include East Texas in these projections yet.
Also also remember that I'm an amateur and am not giving investment advice.
$15k sales price: $1.78
$20k sales price: $4.28
$25k sales price: $6.79
$30k sales price: $9.29
Remember that this reflects Standard owning 55% and Equinor owning 45% of the project as it stands.
Also remember that they talk as though East Texas will be a multiple of SWA, although I don't include East Texas in these projections yet.
Also also remember that I'm an amateur and am not giving investment advice.
This post was edited on 8/8/24 at 12:03 pm
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Posted on 8/8/24 at 12:01 pm to Wraytex
To be clear, I wasn't trying to accurately value their leases, or even all of their projects. I was just trying to point out a reasonable floor of "it would be insane to take less than this amount in a buyout based on this worst case scenario."
Posted on 8/13/24 at 3:36 pm to ev247
5 days? I'm looking forward to the O&G royalty decision. Although I"m hoping for a low end result, I think a higher royalty benefits SLI over the other companies. I'm basing that on my foggy memory of SLI having leases in E Tex and the other entities more or less solely having lithium brine access in their current locations.
Posted on 8/13/24 at 4:22 pm to Wraytex
Why I think Standard (and everyone else) is in a good position royalty-wise
1. Albemarle and Exxon (and AR law?) have insisted upon a statewide royalty.
2. The statewide royalty has to be low or all Lanxess projects die.
3. Standard's SWA project, Albemarle, Exxon, and Tetra all benefit from the Lanxess properties' low lithium concentrations.
I'm sure the commission doesn't want to be the bad guy who killed the Lanxess projects with a high royalty. Meanwhile, Standard might not even plan to go forward with Lanxess projects, but they have no reason to confirm or deny their Lanxess plans before the royalty is decided.
Profit.
1. Albemarle and Exxon (and AR law?) have insisted upon a statewide royalty.
2. The statewide royalty has to be low or all Lanxess projects die.
3. Standard's SWA project, Albemarle, Exxon, and Tetra all benefit from the Lanxess properties' low lithium concentrations.
I'm sure the commission doesn't want to be the bad guy who killed the Lanxess projects with a high royalty. Meanwhile, Standard might not even plan to go forward with Lanxess projects, but they have no reason to confirm or deny their Lanxess plans before the royalty is decided.
Profit.
This post was edited on 8/13/24 at 4:35 pm
Posted on 8/14/24 at 2:56 pm to ev247
Posted on 8/14/24 at 3:43 pm to Fe_Mike
Does the new CEO have an obligation to look out for the bagholders over just getting the thing in Koch's hands as cheaply as possible?
Posted on 8/14/24 at 4:04 pm to Wraytex
I was looking for background info on Park and came across this.
Lithium outlook.....
It was interesting reading, especially this one: "It is interesting to see some lithium ventures that were clearly set up with the purpose of being divested at premium values. Those projects have seen the window of opportunity come and go so now their developers are forced to operate the business. Some of those businesses are led by people with financial background who have no clue on how to operate a mining/processing business."
Lithium outlook.....
It was interesting reading, especially this one: "It is interesting to see some lithium ventures that were clearly set up with the purpose of being divested at premium values. Those projects have seen the window of opportunity come and go so now their developers are forced to operate the business. Some of those businesses are led by people with financial background who have no clue on how to operate a mining/processing business."
Posted on 8/15/24 at 3:20 pm to Wraytex
Seems like somebody buys a big chunk right at market close every day. Somebody maybe expecting PR to break any day???
Posted on 8/15/24 at 5:20 pm to Neauxla_Tiger
No idea, but if they do earnings at the end of September like last year that will be a couple of days after the joint royalty hearing. More importantly, it would be "end of summer" which is when Mintak said we should know about larger grant decisions. Not optimistic that they got those since he's on his way out but who knows
This post was edited on 8/15/24 at 5:25 pm
Posted on 8/17/24 at 5:34 pm to ev247
Some days at the office are just better than others… and that is a high bar considering how much I enjoy what I do.
But any day that I have the opportunity to spend time at the Standard Lithium demonstration plant in El Dorado, Arkansas is always a great day.
This week Chad Martin and Will Smith gave Equinor colleagues Holly Hannold and Jason Muller their first tour of the demonstration plant and we also visited the site of our future commercial Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) plant.
And I am very proud to work with partners who care so deeply for their communities as Valarie Smith demonstrates regularly through her engagements in the area.
It’s a privilege to be a part of this joint venture where together we will bring energy to people and progress for society.
Watch this space. It is going to be exciting.
Oh and if you can’t spot me in the photo, I’m the one…
with the biggest smile!
But any day that I have the opportunity to spend time at the Standard Lithium demonstration plant in El Dorado, Arkansas is always a great day.
This week Chad Martin and Will Smith gave Equinor colleagues Holly Hannold and Jason Muller their first tour of the demonstration plant and we also visited the site of our future commercial Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) plant.
And I am very proud to work with partners who care so deeply for their communities as Valarie Smith demonstrates regularly through her engagements in the area.
It’s a privilege to be a part of this joint venture where together we will bring energy to people and progress for society.
Watch this space. It is going to be exciting.
Oh and if you can’t spot me in the photo, I’m the one…
with the biggest smile!
Posted on 8/17/24 at 5:35 pm to CarbonAce
Saw this on LinkedIn just shareing!
Posted on 8/17/24 at 9:02 pm to CarbonAce
quote:
Some days at the office are just better than others… and that is a high bar considering how much I enjoy what I do. But any day that I have the opportunity to spend time at the Standard Lithium demonstration plant in El Dorado, Arkansas is always a great day. This week Chad Martin and Will Smith gave Equinor colleagues Holly Hannold and Jason Muller their first tour of the demonstration plant and we also visited the site of our future commercial Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) plant. And I am very proud to work with partners who care so deeply for their communities as Valarie Smith demonstrates regularly through her engagements in the area. It’s a privilege to be a part of this joint venture where together we will bring energy to people and progress for society. Watch this space. It is going to be exciting. Oh and if you can’t spot me in the photo, I’m the one… with the biggest smile!
This sounds like a big fluff piece of bullshite
Posted on 8/19/24 at 1:12 pm to CarbonAce
Arkansas Commerce Secretary Hugh McDonald regarding the lithium royalty:
“I think we’ll get that right at the end of the day,” McDonald told Lithium Link. “It’s got to be fair. It’s got to be certain for the producers. It’s got to be competitive — we can’t kill the industry before it starts. We’ve got to have a royalty structure that actually incentivizes their investment in the state …”
“I think we’ll get that right at the end of the day,” McDonald told Lithium Link. “It’s got to be fair. It’s got to be certain for the producers. It’s got to be competitive — we can’t kill the industry before it starts. We’ve got to have a royalty structure that actually incentivizes their investment in the state …”
Posted on 8/19/24 at 1:23 pm to Beerinthepocket
The royalties can ramp up if the market supports it later, correct? McDonald's comments are encouraging.
Posted on 8/20/24 at 3:43 pm to ev247
I see Toyota is in late stage development of solid state batteries. They still use lithium however. Aluminum based batteries could be a threat, but they aren't so far along.
Posted on 8/21/24 at 3:00 pm to Auburn1968
Big day for the lithium sector and we’re lagging behind. Weird.
Posted on 8/21/24 at 4:08 pm to Fe_Mike
I look for the new CEO to remain silent until the royalty decision is settled. Then I look for him to announce plans. You can't tell me they don't have them pretty much all buttoned up at this point, and are just waiting on the final variable to drop so we can get the show on the road. If he fails that soon after the RD, then something's rotten in Denmark.
Posted on 8/21/24 at 5:42 pm to Wraytex
So … when should I buy?
Posted on 8/21/24 at 6:02 pm to Wraytex
I'll be happy to see SLI produce and sell some lithium even if it's not much.
Posted on 8/22/24 at 3:41 pm to ev247
quote:
Not optimistic that they got those since he's on his way out but who knows
The DOE is a shitshow at the moment. They are 2 months late on getting Critical Minerals award announcements released. They still have $450M in critical minerals funds to give out so hopeful they can take advantage if they arent funded.
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