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Started By
Message
re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?
Posted on 10/18/23 at 7:15 am to Ballstein32
Posted on 10/18/23 at 7:15 am to Ballstein32
quote:
might be the reason for the jump.
My own opinion, but I don't think that article has much to do with this action. There is something else driving this large surge in buys that is not out in front of us yet or we have missed it somehow. May never know.
2
Posted on 10/18/23 at 7:28 am to Dock Holiday
Shorts covering. 75% of my shares were returned yesterday (Fidelity).
Maybe something deeper as well.
Maybe something deeper as well.
Posted on 10/18/23 at 8:04 am to CecilShortsHisPants
Posted on 10/18/23 at 8:11 am to Dock Holiday
Shorts are gonna be hurting.
Timeline [met] not met
Timeline [met] not met
Posted on 10/18/23 at 8:45 am to SmackoverHawg
Sector getting hammered early today. Hopefully we can duck and dodge
Posted on 10/18/23 at 8:50 am to CecilShortsHisPants
Alrighty so that starts two clocks.
First, Lanxess decision. I'm going to shoot an email over to Standard to double check my timeline, I'm not as confident on this one. But I believe Lanxess now has 45 days to make a decision, so November 28th for that (ugh I hope it comes sooner).
This also starts the FID clock, officially due by Jan 19th. Recall, though, that they can request an extension on this decision so it is a soft deadline.
First, Lanxess decision. I'm going to shoot an email over to Standard to double check my timeline, I'm not as confident on this one. But I believe Lanxess now has 45 days to make a decision, so November 28th for that (ugh I hope it comes sooner).
This also starts the FID clock, officially due by Jan 19th. Recall, though, that they can request an extension on this decision so it is a soft deadline.
Posted on 10/18/23 at 9:02 am to Fe_Mike
Did someone here say that financing will be decided before the FID is announced? Asking to ask if grants are expected before FID
Posted on 10/18/23 at 9:06 am to CecilShortsHisPants
quote:
Sector getting hammered early today. Hopefully we can duck and dodge
Not worried short term. With us facing a global financial crisis, any move forward is a win in my book. Stock price doesn't really matter to me right now other than I don't want to moon before I can accumulate cash. I won't cry if it does though.
Posted on 10/18/23 at 9:07 am to ev247
quote:
Did someone here say that financing will be decided before the FID is announced? Asking to ask if grants are expected before FID
Dunno but they greatly improves their ESG score with their last few hires.
Posted on 10/18/23 at 9:23 am to Fe_Mike
quote:
This also starts the FID clock, officially due by Jan 19th. Recall, though, that they can request an extension on this decision so it is a soft deadline.
I have not been able to find a 90 day deadline for this. Not saying it doesn't exist, because SEC regs are not exactly my wheelhouse, but I'd be curious what SLI's understanding is. May want to send them the link to what you are seeing to be sure they have it in front of them... I'm reminded they are Canadian after all.... LOL
Posted on 10/18/23 at 9:27 am to ev247
quote:
Did someone here say that financing will be decided before the FID is announced?
Yes, that's typically how it works. Need Lanxess to officially decide if they are going to enter the race and to what extent, that goes into deciding how much outside capital is needed, then FID based on all of the above.
Posted on 10/18/23 at 9:35 am to ev247
quote:
Did someone here say that financing will be decided before the FID is announced? Asking to ask if grants are expected before FID
Yes, they told me that the financing would be settled prior to FID, everything would have to be in place.
That being said, I think a grant would be an exception here. I would assume that they are financing as though no grant exists, and getting one would just be lagniappe. I'm not sure how that would factor into a potential partnership or loan, if the grant came after FID. My guess is, either way, the grant will become more of an issue of accounting and will improve their cash flow at some point in the future. It will be a nice publicity boost in the near term but won't actually impact the Phase 1 economics all that much. Maybe it can help reduce equity sales/dilution if it comes early enough. (oh, eta, I don't remember if I mentioned this before but they did tell me that in the case of dilutive fundraising they are optimistic the valuation when they make an equity sale will be very different than where they currently sit....fwiw)
I don't expect grant news prior to FID, but don't have it totally off the table.
This post was edited on 10/18/23 at 9:41 am
Posted on 10/18/23 at 9:37 am to Dock Holiday
quote:
I have not been able to find a 90 day deadline for this. Not saying it doesn't exist, because SEC regs are not exactly my wheelhouse, but I'd be curious what SLI's understanding is
This is indeed Canadian regulations.
This is info that I got straight from Standard. They told me that the filing of the DFS starts a 90 day clock for them to make the FID. I do not have familiarity with the process outside of this.
Posted on 10/18/23 at 9:40 am to Fe_Mike
Breaking news and the stock drops 2.5%
Posted on 10/18/23 at 9:44 am to Drunken Crawfish
Making out gangbusters compared the rest of the sector.
REMX down 5%
Piedmont down 5%
Livent down 6%
Lithium Americas down 8%
ALB down 9%
(that actually hurts, I own a lot of Albemarle haha)
SLI down 1.8%? I'll take that.
Annnnnnnd we're green.
I can do this all day.
REMX down 5%
Piedmont down 5%
Livent down 6%
Lithium Americas down 8%
ALB down 9%
(that actually hurts, I own a lot of Albemarle haha) SLI down 1.8%? I'll take that.
Annnnnnnd we're green.
I can do this all day.
This post was edited on 10/18/23 at 10:32 am
Posted on 10/18/23 at 11:32 am to Fe_Mike
I was mainly wondering because I thought that it would take longer than 90 days (to FID) to get a grant. Based on nothing specific.
Looking through the DFS, this may be something of note. FeMike, after your last chat with the company you relayed that they were further along on the DoE grant than the IRA tax credits. On page 175 of the DFS (pic below) they assume IRA tax credits in their base case.
May be overly simplistic(?) but my logic says that 1+2=3
1. Standard IR says DoE grant is further along than IRA tax credits
2. DFS says IRA tax credits are far enough along to input them into base case
3. Therefore, the company would expect the DoE grant no less than they expect the IRA tax credits, which they built into their base economic model.
PS no clue what "10(45X)" means re IRA tax credits
Looking through the DFS, this may be something of note. FeMike, after your last chat with the company you relayed that they were further along on the DoE grant than the IRA tax credits. On page 175 of the DFS (pic below) they assume IRA tax credits in their base case.
May be overly simplistic(?) but my logic says that 1+2=3
1. Standard IR says DoE grant is further along than IRA tax credits
2. DFS says IRA tax credits are far enough along to input them into base case
3. Therefore, the company would expect the DoE grant no less than they expect the IRA tax credits, which they built into their base economic model.
PS no clue what "10(45X)" means re IRA tax credits
Posted on 10/18/23 at 11:57 am to ev247
45x is the section code for the credits.
I assume the 10 represents the credit amount which is 10% of the production costs associated to make the lithium.
I assume the 10 represents the credit amount which is 10% of the production costs associated to make the lithium.
Posted on 10/18/23 at 2:51 pm to CecilShortsHisPants
It is remarkable how they always manage to time their news/PR on days it's a bloodbath in the market
Posted on 10/18/23 at 2:51 pm to Fe_Mike
quote:
Making out gangbusters compared the rest of the sector.
Like a fart in the wind...poof!
Posted on 10/18/23 at 5:01 pm to AUHighPlainsDrifter
When they break ground in January, it'll start being real to more investors. Everything on track to start then.
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