re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

Seems like SLI is just being dragged around by the general market these days.

True enough. The zero number reminds me of a true story. Years ago a comment make by newsman Ray Valdetero of KPLC TV in response to a fish kill in the Lake Charles area said that "all of the industries in the area need to focus their efforts in getting the pH down in the area waterways down to zero."

Ray should of continued to be a sportscaster.

Okay they just got done with the discussion. It was a panel of a Citi rep, Mintak, and Piedmont's CEO.

Not alot of new or useful information but I'll brush on some of the highlights with regards to money and schedule. Alot of this was already known.

So, firstly the Lanx economics were restated at an all in Capex of $440 MM (that's for all phases of development). Estimated OPEX of $4300/ton LiCO. 2021 LiCO pricing was ~$17k/ton. At estimated 20,900 tpa that equates to a little over $350MM/year revenue. Phase I is first, obviously, and I think that is the smallest resource. Capex of ~$170MM. What I don't know is whether throughput is limited by equipment or feed. I.e. can they produce at 20,900 TPA once Phase I is complete, and the additional Phases are to access more feed stock? My guess is no, and they'll be producing at ~33% that rate after Phase I, and so you can expect a little over $100M/year from that.

SW Arkansas project is better in every way, but further from production because it is grassroots. 30,000 TPA LiOH at current pricing of $80,000/ton equates to an eye popping and, quite frankly, ridiculous annual revenue of $2.4 billion. $850MM CAPEX for that project.

Some schedule comments were given as well.

Mintak stated that the results of the pre-FEED are expected "imminently", which is in alignment with previous estimates of Q2 '22. Stated that they expect the full front end assessment to kick off this quarter, which indeed means the pre-FEED should be done very very soon. Hoping we get a nice PR on those results.

Pending the full front end assessment results, Mintak expects FID in 'early 2023' with commercial construction on Phase I starting at this time next year.

Expect the pre-FEED on the SW Ark project to be done in early '23. They have to tap into the moth balled brine wells and transport the resource to the pilot plant to run it through to finalize those numbers.

Some other minor things - something I'm sure was public info but not sure I knew or processed is that Lanxess intends to have a 100% offtake agreement for the LiCO produced at the Lanxess project - so assuming that starts up well, that material is already sold.

70% of their OPEX is reagents. This was known but that number is still shocking to me.

PLL still sounds like they are on very shaky grounds WRT permitting. This is something that really doesn't impact SLI - Mintak stated they don't even have to do a full environmental impact study.

So, again, not terribly interesting. I think the hot take from this is they are still on schedule with the pre-FEED and, if they publish those results, I think we can expect them in the next three weeks. I submitted a question about hats but the moderator did not ask it; dude clearly shied away from the hard hitting questions.

Somebody mustve liked the news. Up 5% so far today.

Hard Body? Be sure to add the Hot window sticker

quote:

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70% of their OPEX is reagents. This was known but that number is still shocking to me

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Do we know what their reagents are and if they’re in danger of supply issues or significantly increasing in price with lithium?

SLI trailing the rest of lithium significantly on a big green day in the sector - that's never fun.

We really need that pre-FEED to get things rolling the right direction again.

I contacted IR with a list of questions yesterday. Gonna give them til Tuesday to respond, then will try contacting Mintak directly. Will update if I get feedback; really hoping for a phone call. My questions were:

- Is it correct to assume these are three independent facilities to be operated as stand alone assets?
- If so, are all plants similar in scope with regards to anticipated throughput? Or will there be a scale? (i.e. will the South unit produce at a rate ~40% less than the 'larger' West unit?)
- Can you divulge what percentage of the Phase I CAPEX is NRE applicable to all 3 phases? I ask this with interest as to why the South unit was selected for initial development rather than the similarly priced but much larger West plant. I would imagine the NRE in Phase I would significantly increase the cost of Phase II thus making it less attractive as the first build but would like clarity there. Or is this perhaps a matter of Lanxess preference and guidance?
- Unrelated to the phased expansion plan, can you confirm that the results of the pre-FEED will be made public upon completion, prior to or congruent with commencement of the FEED?

If I actually get a discussion going I'll try to also ask them about the hydraulic balance, permitting, and strategic sourcing/supply agreements.

Mintak was supposed to call me a few months ago and ghosted me so I'm not sure if I'll get anything this time.

Not based on much data, but, I'm guessing Koch will be supply the reagent and take the spent reagent.

LINK /

Lithium being hit hard by Goldman Sachs releasing a market report predicting lithium prices to fall over 70% by the end of 2023.

While I do think it is overpriced and expect some correction, I don’t think there is any chance it gets under $20k like GS is predicting and likely not under $30k.