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Started By
Message
re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?
Posted on 6/23/21 at 7:09 pm to Bit
Posted on 6/23/21 at 7:09 pm to Bit
quote:
Anyone have an idea what the incremental cost of their process is?
Is this something that would be published? Or is this something more of a proprietary number that would be an internal estimate?
Edit: Well, I guess you answered my question too.
This post was edited on 6/23/21 at 7:11 pm
0
Posted on 6/23/21 at 7:29 pm to Boomer Rick
quote:
his isn’t a high profile stock.
It will be. Every EV loving, granola eating, unshaved hippie stonk investor will be all over this "Green" lithium.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 7:33 pm to Bit
quote:
Annual production: 20,900 tonnes lithium carbonate
Total capital expenditures estimate of US$437M
Non-optimised reagent cost per tonne lithium carbonate of US$3,107
All-in operating costs, including all direct and indirect costs, reagent, sustaining capital, insurance and mine-closure costs of US$4,319 per tonne of lithium carbonate (4)
Average selling price $13,550 USD per tonne battery quality lithium carbonate (5)
Pre-tax US$1.3 Billion NPV at 8% discount rate and IRR of 42%
Post-tax US$ 989 Million NPV an 8% discount rate and IRR of 36%
at a P/E of 10 the post production share price based on after tax income of 193 M$/year [( 13550 - 4319) *20900] would be 13.8 ( 10 *193 earnings /140 shares)
Will be well over this on production and lower on costs. Not to mention lithium prices will be rising with many estimates tripling in the next five years. And they have tetra that they can extract all they want with no split.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 7:45 pm to SmackoverHawg
I think most of the recent cost overruns for materials like steel would be on Lanxess, right, given the JV structure where Lanxess pays to construct the plants?
Posted on 6/23/21 at 7:49 pm to GeneralLee
My biggest concern is we see a market correction right when this stock is ready to roll
If we can get things moving before bear market, we can get fomo effect and pps may not match fundamentals in our favor
If we can get things moving before bear market, we can get fomo effect and pps may not match fundamentals in our favor
Posted on 6/23/21 at 8:09 pm to GeneralLee
quote:
I think most of the recent cost overruns for materials like steel would be on Lanxess, right, given the JV structure where Lanxess pays to construct the plants?
That would be on Lanxess. Lanxess will pay for projects on their sites, STLHF would use initial profits to develop Tetra site.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 8:18 pm to SmackoverHawg
What I don't know about my calc is what % actually goes to Std Lithium's bottom line. I seem to remember the JV gave them 30% of the take. So, that would bring the 13.8 down to 4.1. You might argue that a PE of 10 is low. If 20, then 4.1 becomes 8.2...
Posted on 6/23/21 at 8:22 pm to SmackoverHawg
Also curious if the cost decrease per ton given their conversion rate as a matter of hours instead of several days as originally planned (I think I am correct in that)
Posted on 6/23/21 at 8:25 pm to Bit
I think the 20K tons is just from one plant, they are planning on three plants probably pushing north of 70K tons total if you start to account for Tetra.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 8:26 pm to Bit
First couple years is all STLHF profits right?
If they can develop tetra site out by the time profits are reduced to 40%, then profits shouldnt see a dip
If they can develop tetra site out by the time profits are reduced to 40%, then profits shouldnt see a dip
Posted on 6/23/21 at 8:29 pm to GeneralLee
quote:
I think the 20K tons is just from one plant, they are planning on three plants probably pushing north of 70K tons total if you start to account for Tetra.
I think it was 70k not counting Tetra. And doesn't mean it can't be ramped up as demand and prices rise.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 8:30 pm to SmackoverHawg
And Albermarle is right next to Tetra site.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 8:32 pm to jimjackandjose
Is there a realistic consensus PT on this? I know someone said 6, and ive seen 10. If Elon is actually taking a closer look.. what are your possible targets for 1-2 and 3-5 years
This post was edited on 6/23/21 at 8:37 pm
Posted on 6/23/21 at 8:41 pm to LChama
If Elon looks at it who knows. Throw reason out the window
Posted on 6/23/21 at 8:41 pm to LChama
$10-20 1-2 years, $30-40 3-5 years. Price increases on a percentage basis should slow down once the plants are built.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 9:13 pm to GeneralLee
quote:
$10-20 1-2 years, $30-40 3-5 years. Price increases on a percentage basis should slow down once the plants are built.
Pretty much my thoughts.
Posted on 6/23/21 at 10:23 pm to SmackoverHawg
I like General Lee's estimate. The tech if effective as it seems is worth billions - no question. Requires some tweaking depending on deposit but appears revolutionary and checks all the boxes, including cost and ESG.
The wildcard is this can meme or inspire which could create parabolic stock action well before the maturity of the process (ie build out, expansion to other deposits etc). Tesla could light that fuse. That happens, all bets are off
The wildcard is this can meme or inspire which could create parabolic stock action well before the maturity of the process (ie build out, expansion to other deposits etc). Tesla could light that fuse. That happens, all bets are off
Posted on 6/24/21 at 8:06 am to igoringa
Any guesses for today? Poised to blow past $4, but who dafuq knows. JV announcement has to be soon. I am expection within the next week or two, but didn't Mintak say JV by end of Q3 and uplist by end of Q4?
Posted on 6/24/21 at 8:10 am to SmackoverHawg
Germans have it up today, but they were sideways yesterday so may be a reaction to the US action from yesterday.
I think we’ll prob open $4.05ish and stay in that range. But who the hell knows. This thing ain’t following any rules.
I think we’ll prob open $4.05ish and stay in that range. But who the hell knows. This thing ain’t following any rules.
Posted on 6/24/21 at 8:15 am to SmackoverHawg
quote:
Any guesses for today?
Draw back to 3.30, I back the truck up and unload on it, JV announcement Monday, then...
Or more realistically we hover around the $4 mark most of the day and end around 4.05
This post was edited on 6/24/21 at 8:16 am
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