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re: Diving Deeper on Origin Materials?
Posted on 8/14/24 at 3:23 pm to ev247
Posted on 8/14/24 at 3:23 pm to ev247
Somethin!
"Today we are announcing our first signed customer for Origin’s PET caps and closures,” said Rich Riley, Co-Chief Executive Officer of Origin. “We anticipate delivering multiple billions of caps to this customer over the next several years, which we expect will generate over $100 million in revenue in the initial two-year term, with revenue expected to begin in early 2025, ramping significantly in 2026. Therefore, to fulfill demand for this MOU as well as anticipated demand from other customers, we expect to build capacity well beyond our initial system purchases, which we previously announced as having expected capacity to generate between $45 million and $65 million in annual revenue. Concurrently, we are negotiating potential licensing agreements. We anticipate that licensing our technology, in addition to selling caps that we produce with our world-class manufacturing partners, will drive explosive growth for our PET caps business."
Eta nothing on the biomass tech front today
"Today we are announcing our first signed customer for Origin’s PET caps and closures,” said Rich Riley, Co-Chief Executive Officer of Origin. “We anticipate delivering multiple billions of caps to this customer over the next several years, which we expect will generate over $100 million in revenue in the initial two-year term, with revenue expected to begin in early 2025, ramping significantly in 2026. Therefore, to fulfill demand for this MOU as well as anticipated demand from other customers, we expect to build capacity well beyond our initial system purchases, which we previously announced as having expected capacity to generate between $45 million and $65 million in annual revenue. Concurrently, we are negotiating potential licensing agreements. We anticipate that licensing our technology, in addition to selling caps that we produce with our world-class manufacturing partners, will drive explosive growth for our PET caps business."
Eta nothing on the biomass tech front today
This post was edited on 8/14/24 at 5:13 pm
1
Posted on 8/14/24 at 8:17 pm to ev247
If it gets me above break even, I’m all for it. Had pretty much written this off late last year.
Posted on 8/15/24 at 7:09 am to RoyalWe
Are these people in Louisiana? Yep I don’t think Origin 2 is ever getting built in Geismar. I know they have one executive assistant and one techno economic modeling guy in the BR area.
Posted on 8/16/24 at 7:18 am to GeneralLee
Nice move yesterday. BofA gave a PT of $3
Posted on 8/16/24 at 8:49 am to DawgCountry
off and running today too
Posted on 9/12/24 at 9:20 am to DawgCountry
nice video in the PR that came out today showing the caps plant running at commercial scale. Hoping that there is good news coming out by year end on a potential carbon black initiative with Cabot as well, along with potential catalysts from Rich Riley (co-CEO) buying more shares (his 10b5-1 plan was modified to allow him to buy up to 300K shares recently). Maybe, just maybe, this management team is putting things together to where I could trust them again.
This post was edited on 9/12/24 at 9:22 am
Posted on 9/19/24 at 9:51 am to GeneralLee
new 52 week high today, won't be a bagholder for long if this keeps up! 
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:29 am to GeneralLee
So you're out if you break even? Or just selling some off?
Posted on 9/19/24 at 11:37 am to DoomGuy504
We'll see... i'm thinking it could go to $3-5 once they announce who the caps customer is and if there's news on the carbon black front. IF the core biomass platform is viable, it's worth way more than $3-5/share, but that's a huge if. I think there's more upside here, at a minimum hoping for the gap at $4 (pre August 2023 debacle) to be filled.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 8:28 am to GeneralLee
And now they're laying off 28% of their workforce, yikes. These guys... Moral of the story is always position size accordingly with these pre-revenue companies.
Posted on 9/23/24 at 9:07 am to GeneralLee
just when we finally had some momentum
Posted on 9/23/24 at 9:42 am to DawgCountry
Glad I dumped mine and rolled it all over into SLI. Had big hopes for them. Will continue to follow.
Posted on 2/20/25 at 6:10 pm to SmackoverHawg
25% up today
This new PET Cap deal going to turn this ship around?
This new PET Cap deal going to turn this ship around?
Posted on 2/20/25 at 7:17 pm to Salamander_Wilson
Posted on 2/25/25 at 9:51 am to Salamander_Wilson
88 cents a share. Any bulls left?
Posted on 3/10/25 at 11:35 am to jangalang
I've tripled my position in the past month. I think they'll hit $150M-$200M revenue in 2026 from the 8 capformer systems that are coming online by 12/31/25 and from the 8-10+ they will probably be bringing online during 2026. Being in a boring company making recession resistant products (bottle caps) might be a good spot to hide out in this terrible macro over the next 1-2 years. I am hoping for $3-5 per share by 12/31/26. I think it'll get there by then based on the revenue ramp (not to be really seen until Q1 '26 or Q2 '26) or based on a customer reveal like Pepsi or Coke that could send it up 200-300% in one day. Stock is trading near long term solid support in the $0.80ish range currently. Could still go to zero, but I like the risk/reward asymmetry here.
Here is a video link they put out this morning for the first capformer system:
LINK
Here is a video link they put out this morning for the first capformer system:
LINK
This post was edited on 3/10/25 at 11:51 am
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