- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets
Posted on 7/23/20 at 9:12 am to RedStickBR
Posted on 7/23/20 at 9:12 am to RedStickBR
quote:
European carbon ETN
quote:
And it’s nice to invest in something the government is literally cheerleading to go higher
The ECB is using climate change as an excuse to dump a bunch of debt onto their balance sheet
I have no doubt that within 10 years combatting climate change will be included in the Fed mandate. I am definitely going to play this game. The inflows to ESG will be epic this decade. It's Wall Streets new toy to sell to idiots, and it feels like the billionaire class is all in on it.
1
Posted on 7/23/20 at 11:15 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
The ECB is using climate change as an excuse to dump a bunch of debt onto their balance sheet
I have no doubt that within 10 years combatting climate change will be included in the Fed mandate. I am definitely going to play this game. The inflows to ESG will be epic this decade. It's Wall Streets new toy to sell to idiots, and it feels like the billionaire class is all in on it.
I'm all in on the green revolution. Even though the true believers can't even begin to tell you how to manage a grid without dispatch-able resources, pure ideology will cause them to try anyway. We are one President, potentially even one Republican President, away from broader renewable mandates and potentially even a federal carbon tax here in the U.S. This will only increase flows into infra funds and cause even more traditional P/E funds to expand into that space.
Posted on 7/23/20 at 11:33 am to RedStickBR
Ideology trumps everything for the greentards. This is one of the easiest trades and investment themes on the planet for the next 10 years. I hope those activists enjoy their currency getting debased while simaltaneously increasing their energy costs
The real problem is that the Federal Reserve needs an excuse to monetize debt directly from the Treasury to depreciate the dollar at a faster relative rate than the rest of the worlds currencies. This is how MMT theory trickles into the banking system. It's not about helicopter money, but more of an excuse for massive fiscal stimulus due to the rest of the world easing. The problem is politicians catch on and always screw it up.
The real problem is that the Federal Reserve needs an excuse to monetize debt directly from the Treasury to depreciate the dollar at a faster relative rate than the rest of the worlds currencies. This is how MMT theory trickles into the banking system. It's not about helicopter money, but more of an excuse for massive fiscal stimulus due to the rest of the world easing. The problem is politicians catch on and always screw it up.
Posted on 7/23/20 at 12:14 pm to RedStickBR
my friend check the us m2 money supply chart today. money printer goes brrr $$
Posted on 7/23/20 at 12:27 pm to Mr Perfect
I don't see an update since July 6th on the FRED website, even though it's supposed to be updated weekly.
I have been tracking the weekly Fed Balance Sheet reports, though. We had three weeks of downticks and then a uptick last week. Curious to see what today's report reveals.
I have been tracking the weekly Fed Balance Sheet reports, though. We had three weeks of downticks and then a uptick last week. Curious to see what today's report reveals.
This post was edited on 7/23/20 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 7/23/20 at 12:34 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
The real problem is that the Federal Reserve needs an excuse to monetize debt directly from the Treasury to depreciate the dollar at a faster relative rate than the rest of the worlds currencies. This is how MMT theory trickles into the banking system. It's not about helicopter money, but more of an excuse for massive fiscal stimulus due to the rest of the world easing. The problem is politicians catch on and always screw it up.
This in conjunction with your previous comment re: the Fed using climate change as an excuse to further involve itself in the economy provides a lot to think about. I hope to God you're wrong, but even God, apparently, can't fight the Fed. I wouldn't be surprised if the mission creep continues. After all, how can they achieve prong 1 of their mandate - maximize employment - if the "world burns up?"
Posted on 7/23/20 at 3:36 pm to RedStickBR
Posted on 7/23/20 at 3:59 pm to Mr Perfect
quote:There is no update today.
check the us m2 money supply chart today.
Post the link to what you're looking at for "today's" M2.
Posted on 7/24/20 at 12:15 pm to RedStickBR
Soverign Wealth Funds Piling Into Illiquid Renewables
Less than a day later
Sounds promising for the pension beneficiaries
All at the same time crude and natural gas are setting up to explode this decade.
Less than a day later
quote:
The economic disruption caused by the pandemic has created more distressed assets in the sectors the state funds have gravitated toward such as infrastructure and real estate, according to the sovereign-wealth funds surveyed by Invesco. Projects involving electricity generation and distribution, and featuring a shift away from the use of fossil fuels, are particularly drawing attention.
quote:
Risk appetite will be linked to “the extent to which governments need capital, that’s going to be really key for sovereign-wealth funds for the next year or so,” said Victoria Barbary, a director at the International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds. “It depends on what the recovery looks like.”
Sounds promising for the pension beneficiaries
All at the same time crude and natural gas are setting up to explode this decade.Posted on 7/24/20 at 12:44 pm to wutangfinancial
Haha, that’s some incredible timing right there. That trend will only continue 
Posted on 7/29/20 at 11:37 am to RedStickBR
quote:
And I found it fascinating that Mike thinks if and when the "end" comes, it will be when the 10-year strikes zero.
The 10-year bottomed at 0.569% on March 9 before recovering above 1% later that month. By April 1, it was close to testing that level again (0.582%) before a minor recovery and eventual drop to 0.570% mid-late April. Today marks the third lowest print on record, as the 10-year is currently trading at 0.581%.
LINK
Posted on 7/29/20 at 12:04 pm to RedStickBR
I think it's all related to fiscal stimulus. Congress is essentially supplementing income for every unemployed person which has increased aggregate demand due to how many people received a pay raise combined with the low savings rates of those people and that money. No stimulus -> deflation
Posted on 7/29/20 at 12:48 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
I think it's all related to fiscal stimulus. Congress is essentially supplementing income for every unemployed person which has increased aggregate demand due to how many people received a pay raise combined with the low savings rates of those people and that money. No stimulus -> deflation
It's crazy to think that a huge chunk of people have actually been receiving more in the form of unemployment benefits than they were in wages. I've seen this pegged at 2/3 - 4/5 of all laborers. That's hugely stimulative, as you mentioned.
It will be interesting to see what happens if unemployment benefits switch to replacing only 70% of lost income. We could have monetary policy being less stimulative at the same time.
This post was edited on 7/29/20 at 12:49 pm
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:43 pm to RedStickBR
Also, this should be fitting for this thread, given the topic covered is likely explored in these books. Has anyone read any of the below? Looking for a new read as I've exhausted most of the economics / economic history books on my bookshelf:
This post was edited on 8/10/20 at 7:36 am
Posted on 7/29/20 at 1:51 pm to RedStickBR
No but those first two look like something I'd buy
Posted on 7/29/20 at 3:51 pm to wutangfinancial
This thread has become a really good repository of book, article and podcast recommendations concerning the topics of liquidity and flows. Here's another good article, entitled When Fundamentals Don't Matter, that also references what looks to be an interesting podcast.
LINK
quote:
If there is one lesson all of us can learn from what has occurred this year, it is to never underestimate the power of the Federal Reserve, and governments in general. We have shut down our economy and are at the very least in a severe recession, and yet as I write this, the market is at all time highs. I remember a podcast interview I listened to with Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory a while before all of this happened where he made the point that it is essentially impossible for a deflationary crisis to derail the market because the Fed will do whatever it takes to save it. You probably couldn’t come up with a stronger test of his theory than what has happened here, and it turns out he was 100% correct.
quote:
The Fed’s interventions haven’t just had an impact on the market as a whole, though. They also have likely impacted the relative returns of different asset classes, and groups within them. For example, many think the low interest rates are to blame for the underperformance of value relative to growth in the past decade. But whether you believe that or not, it is certainly clear the Fed has impacted markets, and the result has likely been a situation where fundamentals matter less than they traditionally have.
LINK
This post was edited on 7/29/20 at 3:55 pm
Posted on 7/30/20 at 11:45 am to wutangfinancial
Posted on 7/30/20 at 11:51 am to wutangfinancial
wutang, you probably already saw this about the Naz gamma vortex due to dealer positioning, but if not here it is:
LINK
LINK
Posted on 7/30/20 at 5:14 pm to RedStickBR
LMAO I don't know definitively but I would guess systematic traders have already reduced the risk premium on options for a strategy like that. But I trade with a guy who showed our group that phenomina. It happens at the Euro close as well at 11AM. Then on top of the fund flows, you have active dealers hedging their options books and you also have funds trading variance swaps and just gets ridiculous into the close. So in other words, when people say "the market turned because of X headline" it's mostly B.S. because there's too many moving parts. People do trade headlines but it's mostly irrelevant over longer timeframes.
Edit: that article reads like I wrote it
That's probably the spookiest thing you could have shown. They get to decide when the selling starts. However, is this a product of more institutional hedging? The issue is with the timing. I have been pointing to December when you have actives taking profits, tax loss harvesting, funds are moving positions around, retirees are withdrawing from passive funds etc...It wouldn't be a bad time to start looking at 0 delta puts on the tech giants I bet they have never been cheaper with a higher r/r. Of course I say that and the Fed would step in if it starts selling again.
Edit: that article reads like I wrote it
quote:
wutang, you probably already saw this about the Naz gamma vortex due to dealer positioning, but if not here it is:
That's probably the spookiest thing you could have shown. They get to decide when the selling starts. However, is this a product of more institutional hedging? The issue is with the timing. I have been pointing to December when you have actives taking profits, tax loss harvesting, funds are moving positions around, retirees are withdrawing from passive funds etc...It wouldn't be a bad time to start looking at 0 delta puts on the tech giants I bet they have never been cheaper with a higher r/r. Of course I say that and the Fed would step in if it starts selling again.
This post was edited on 7/30/20 at 5:30 pm
Posted on 7/30/20 at 6:36 pm to Hussss
quote:
www.zerohedge.com
quote:
the Naz gamma vortex
Page 5 of 23
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News