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re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets
Posted on 5/21/21 at 2:46 pm to RedStickBR
Posted on 5/21/21 at 2:46 pm to RedStickBR
stumbled upon this video of michael burry's recent moves, burry has been wrong before but obviously he's been more right than wrong
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81bM_ZUqpG4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81bM_ZUqpG4
1
Posted on 5/21/21 at 2:59 pm to wutangfinancial
Posted on 5/21/21 at 2:59 pm to DVinBR
He’s get massive short positions in Tesla and Treasuries, right?
Posted on 5/21/21 at 3:03 pm to RedStickBR
That's a juicy description I'm adding it to my list.
Posted on 5/21/21 at 3:23 pm to wutangfinancial
Reinhart’s official academic research is also required, but I’d read that first and if you want more nerd out on her papers.
Posted on 5/21/21 at 7:07 pm to wutangfinancial
That Rosenberg deck is so good .... tons of confirmation bias, yes, but the the bias is right! 
Posted on 5/21/21 at 9:14 pm to RedStickBR
It's a treasure chest. Let's see if the hYpErInFlAtIoNistas take a look. I know they're lurking
Posted on 5/22/21 at 9:29 am to wutangfinancial
Everyone talks about debt, demographics and technology being deflationary, but I love how he finds the underlying data to support that. He references some incredible sources that I’d never even seen before.
Posted on 5/26/21 at 9:29 pm to RedStickBR
We have reverse repo madness trying to figure it out
trying to figure it outPosted on 5/26/21 at 10:26 pm to wutangfinancial
This comment from Wolf caused me to have a light bulb moment. Basically, there have been a ton of people shorting Treasuries, and to close those positions, they have to have Treasuries to buy to cover. On top of that, banks are interested in swapping their mountain of reserves for Treasuries. One problem: the Fed has gobbled most of them up. So now that there is a shortage of Treasuries, the Fed is reverse repo’ing them back into the market to meet the demand from people who want to buy them (including short sellers).
The net effect could be further upward pressure on rates, as the influx of new securities causes prices to go down: it’s effectively the opposite of QE.
LINK
quote:
Banks are sitting on too much cash (reserves). Nearly $4 trillion. The repo market allows them change their reserves into Treasuries. There are other entities too clamoring for Treasuries, including Treasury short sellers that have to find Treasuries to close their positions. And the Fed is providing them.
The net effect could be further upward pressure on rates, as the influx of new securities causes prices to go down: it’s effectively the opposite of QE.
LINK
Posted on 5/27/21 at 7:12 am to RedStickBR
That's what I'm trying to figure out. The opposite of nothing is still nothing
These securities are leaving the Feds balance sheet though so like you're saying they're doing something with the collateral.
ZB reeeeeeekt
These securities are leaving the Feds balance sheet though so like you're saying they're doing something with the collateral.
ZB reeeeeeekt
This post was edited on 5/27/21 at 7:32 am
Posted on 6/3/21 at 9:10 am to wutangfinancial
SIFMA Insights - Who Owns Stocks?
My God, Boomers
Some good data in here. I have been following passive flows on Refinitiv as often as I can. I don't see valuations coming down until household income in the aggregate drops. The next time there is an explosion in the corporate world we already know the playbook. Some exogenous variable is the only thing that's going to take it down I think. I think valuations can stay elevated if we start importing highly skilled immigrants to fill the gaps of dying/retiring Boomers. Wall Street is going to have to expand their market to more households to keep it going, and so far they have despite contracting global trade in 2019 and our lockdown recession in 2020.
Meanwhile, AMC traded more volume than MSFT, TSLA, AMZN, and GOOG combined yesterday and exceeded an intraday volume in Amazon's history. Definitely all reddit posters
quote:
According to the 2020 ICI Fact Book, people in their 20s hold
around 80% of 401(k) assets in equities (includes equity funds, equity portion of balanced funds, target date funds
and company stock). Even people in their 60s, who have transitioned to the income distribution phase of their
investment lifecycle, still hold around 55% of assets in equities.
My God, Boomers
quote:
It is households that own equities, representing 37.7% of total equity holders in the U.S. The next largest holder
group is mutual funds, at 21.8%, and as shown above, households own mutual funds. ETFs come in at 6.4%,
followed by private pensions at 5.4%.
quote:
As of 2019, equities represent households’ largest liquid financial asset holdings at 41.6%, or $20.6 trillion of the
total $49.5 trillion in total liquid financial assets.
quote:
The Federal Reserve data shows a median value of $40 thousand for a household’s stock holdings, which
demonstrates a much wider universe of Americans own stocks. Extrapolating this $40 thousand median stock
holdings value to the U.S. Census Bureau data, it is in line with the median income listed for the third and fourth
quintile income levels. This applies to an income range of $77.2 thousand to $126.6 thousand and therefore shows
a wide universe of Americans own stocks, not just the 1%.
Some good data in here. I have been following passive flows on Refinitiv as often as I can. I don't see valuations coming down until household income in the aggregate drops. The next time there is an explosion in the corporate world we already know the playbook. Some exogenous variable is the only thing that's going to take it down I think. I think valuations can stay elevated if we start importing highly skilled immigrants to fill the gaps of dying/retiring Boomers. Wall Street is going to have to expand their market to more households to keep it going, and so far they have despite contracting global trade in 2019 and our lockdown recession in 2020.
Meanwhile, AMC traded more volume than MSFT, TSLA, AMZN, and GOOG combined yesterday and exceeded an intraday volume in Amazon's history. Definitely all reddit posters
This post was edited on 6/3/21 at 9:12 am
Posted on 6/8/21 at 1:39 pm to wutangfinancial
Bump, long bonds have caught a bid 
Posted on 6/8/21 at 1:51 pm to wutangfinancial
Been watching that. I was tempted to go long when we hit 1.69% on the 10y mid-May, but decided I wanted to see another CPI report first. Would have been a 4% return already 
Posted on 6/8/21 at 1:52 pm to RedStickBR
Ya I'm in calls right now but another crazy print will lead to giving all the gains back. We'll see. I bet it's high again.
Posted on 6/8/21 at 2:33 pm to wutangfinancial
I’m watching that m/m Core again. That was pretty wild to see it hit 0.9% last report.
Posted on 6/10/21 at 7:36 am to wutangfinancial
Core up another 0.7% m/m vs 0.4% expected and 0.9% the prior month. That’s still running pretty hot, especially considering that’s 0.7% on top of a 0.9% print the month before.
Posted on 6/19/21 at 10:49 am to RedStickBR
This guy Steve Keen has some interesting perspectives, many of which I disagree with, but that are nonetheless interesting if for no other reason than that they were unique to me. He seems to be an MMT sympathizer who also thinks we’re sitting on a corporate debt bomb that will blow up before we ever get around to fixing it.
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 6/20/21 at 6:43 am
Posted on 6/21/21 at 9:50 am to wutangfinancial
Posted on 6/21/21 at 3:13 pm to Hussss
Lacy Hunt - Inflation Today, Deflation Tomorrow
Lacy has good data that updated through April 2021 about loan creation, velocity, deposits etc...
Lacy has good data that updated through April 2021 about loan creation, velocity, deposits etc...
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