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re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets
Posted on 5/12/21 at 11:44 am to wutangfinancial
Posted on 5/12/21 at 11:44 am to wutangfinancial
I expected the Y/Y numbers to be through the roof. But the M/M is a surprise. We are now well above the pre-COVID trendline.
1
Posted on 5/12/21 at 12:13 pm to RedStickBR
Look at the rate of change, it's increasing.
Apparently supplementing income does work after all
Edit: Oops my bad your picture didn't load for me at first
Apparently supplementing income does work after all
Edit: Oops my bad your picture didn't load for me at first
This post was edited on 5/12/21 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 5/12/21 at 12:29 pm to wutangfinancial
Can you imagine if we get a taper, a rate hike, and the “infrastructure” bill gets pulled?
In that scenario, now is not the time to add debt due to a reduction in its real value, but to aggressively pay down debt due to an increase in its real value.
In that scenario, now is not the time to add debt due to a reduction in its real value, but to aggressively pay down debt due to an increase in its real value.
Posted on 5/12/21 at 12:31 pm to wutangfinancial
Now up to 1.69% on the 10Y ...
Posted on 5/12/21 at 12:48 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
Can you imagine if we get a taper, a rate hike, and the “infrastructure” bill gets pulled?
Only thing is that process took several years to complete the cycle last go around. It will happen a little quicker this time though if we keep getting prints like this in a sustained manner. Also, you left out tax increases
Posted on 5/13/21 at 7:31 pm to CorkRockingham
So Harley Bassman and Mike Green created a structured product that gives you exposure to 7 year OTC swaptions on the 20 year @ 425 bps hypothetically if you had an ISDA that's how you'd hedge for massive rate spikes. The theta on that must be insanely low.
He's on Macrovoices so I'm sure you'll get around to it.
hypothetically if you had an ISDA that's how you'd hedge for massive rate spikes. The theta on that must be insanely low. He's on Macrovoices so I'm sure you'll get around to it.
Posted on 5/14/21 at 9:35 am to wutangfinancial
Lol I read the paper and I’m half way through the podcast. I bought a little of both PFIX and SVOL.
I get the general idea of PFIX is SVOL similiar, his paper didn’t discuss that one as much.
I kind of bought them so I would be forced to learn more about their inner workings and the assumptions behind them.
I get the general idea of PFIX is SVOL similiar, his paper didn’t discuss that one as much.
I kind of bought them so I would be forced to learn more about their inner workings and the assumptions behind them.
Posted on 5/14/21 at 9:38 am to CorkRockingham
Nm lol, SVOL isn’t his. Someone wanna explain to me if SVOL is long term like PFIX?
Posted on 5/14/21 at 10:46 am to CorkRockingham
I wouldn't touch SVOL. Look at the holdings it's like 40 VXX calls lol But the strategy is supposed to create excess returns when SPX does well and mitigate losses when it draws down by buying and selling Vix futures and Vix futures options I think.
Update on prints:
Retail Sales MoM: 0.0% miss
Industrial Production: (0.7%) miss
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 82.8 vs 90.4 miss
Update on prints:
Retail Sales MoM: 0.0% miss
Industrial Production: (0.7%) miss
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 82.8 vs 90.4 miss
Posted on 5/14/21 at 12:31 pm to wutangfinancial
Sold that one lol at a slight profit ha.
Only holding 25 shares of PFIX.
Only holding 25 shares of PFIX.
Posted on 5/17/21 at 12:05 pm to CorkRockingham
S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends Report - Yardeni
So looks like the buyback desks got fired up again. I'd imagine we get back to normalized levels for most of these large caps. Maybe a crack up boom incoming for the short term?
So looks like the buyback desks got fired up again. I'd imagine we get back to normalized levels for most of these large caps. Maybe a crack up boom incoming for the short term?
Posted on 5/17/21 at 12:06 pm to wutangfinancial
The Jim Stack end game episode from a few months ago is phenomenal
Posted on 5/17/21 at 12:16 pm to RedStickBR
I might have to get a sub so I can catch up. Who is Jim Stack?
Posted on 5/17/21 at 12:28 pm to wutangfinancial
Runs a research service and also an asset management firm. Has developed a bunch of proprietary macro algos. I had never heard of him, but was impressed. Another guy with tremendous command over financial history.
Grant’s been pumping out more content ever since he went premium. And that’s just on the podcast side. I haven’t even really dug into their written research yet.
Grant’s been pumping out more content ever since he went premium. And that’s just on the podcast side. I haven’t even really dug into their written research yet.
Posted on 5/17/21 at 1:35 pm to RedStickBR
I really like the podcast with that women he does called Super Terrific Happy Hour. She's brilliant.
Posted on 5/18/21 at 10:27 am to wutangfinancial
Yeah, she’s great.
Also, this is a nice little monetary policy presentation from an economics professor in Arizona. Nothing earth shattering here, but a good review of key concepts and also a few things that helped refine my thinking a bit on some of the topics we’ve discussed in this thread:
LINK
Also, this is a nice little monetary policy presentation from an economics professor in Arizona. Nothing earth shattering here, but a good review of key concepts and also a few things that helped refine my thinking a bit on some of the topics we’ve discussed in this thread:
LINK
Posted on 5/18/21 at 3:51 pm to RedStickBR
Posted on 5/21/21 at 10:47 am to RedStickBR
Another good one: David Rosenberg with Townsend. Especially if you want confirmation bias
Posted on 5/21/21 at 10:57 am to wutangfinancial
Awesome. Yeah, Rosenberg has been giving me a lot of that!
Posted on 5/21/21 at 11:06 am to RedStickBR
I'm sitting here staring at the TLT options chain and it's giving me courage. Sitting on a lot of cash I think some call calendars pretty stretched out into Q3/Q4 is a nice looking trade right now.
No New Eras - David Rosenburg
Check this out:
That chart deck is paper gold. So much good data in there.
No New Eras - David Rosenburg
Check this out:
That chart deck is paper gold. So much good data in there.
This post was edited on 5/21/21 at 12:21 pm
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