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re: Did I stumble into something interesting?? IDN options
Posted on 9/25/26 at 11:22 am to bayoubengals88
Posted on 9/25/26 at 11:22 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
Who are the competitors in this space?
With the possibility of the Save Act or states verifications becoming law for voting, this seems like an opportunity to play those regulations.
TLDR:
Intellicheck validates the cryptographic DNA of government IDs — not how they look, but what they encode. No direct public competitor does this the same way. They already process identity for nearly half of North American adults annually with 99.975% accuracy. The banking vertical is growing 19% ex-concentration headwind. And if the SAVE Act or state-level voting ID mandates scale, Intellicheck is the obvious infrastructure vendor for 8,000 election jurisdictions — using the exact same product they already sell.
This post was edited on 9/25/26 at 11:24 am
Posted on 9/28/26 at 9:31 pm to bayoubengals88
I’m essentially running six asymmetric bets right now.
Long NBIS commons
Long OUST leaps
Long ABVX commons
Long GRAB leaps
KOD Puts
IDN calls
Out of all of them, I may look to average down on May $2 IDN calls first.
I just can’t see this as anything other than a ridiculous opportunity.
Long NBIS commons
Long OUST leaps
Long ABVX commons
Long GRAB leaps
KOD Puts
IDN calls
Out of all of them, I may look to average down on May $2 IDN calls first.
I just can’t see this as anything other than a ridiculous opportunity.
Posted on 9/29/26 at 1:59 pm to bayoubengals88
I meant to buy May but bought February $2 calls instead. I see there was 20 bought today and that was all me. Hope the next earnings has positive news.
Posted on 10/1/26 at 4:36 pm to jerryc436
No action just yet. Just drifting lower.
Posted on 10/1/26 at 6:18 pm to TDFreak
Yup.
Doesn’t even matter.
Went in knowing there’s no way out.
Just following the $52k premium.
Doesn’t even matter.
Went in knowing there’s no way out.
Just following the $52k premium.
Posted on 10/1/26 at 7:43 pm to bayoubengals88
I only post that because as soon as I give up, the stock moons.
Posted on 10/3/26 at 7:56 am to TDFreak
If you listen to the call you may walk away with confidence that the ceo will replace any lost revenue with the fast growing banking segment.
I really have no idea why this company is so small and unknown.
Intellicheck (IDN) — $2.28, $46M market cap, Oct 2026
Intellicheck is a SaaS identity verification company that checks barcodes on government IDs against proprietary U.S. DMV data. The DMV relationship is the moat: it validates encoded data, not images, which is harder to fake and harder to replicate.
Q2 revenue grew 16% YoY to $5.9M. Gross margin is 91%. Turned profitable in 2025 after years of losses. Five straight quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA. $11.8M cash, zero debt. The base ex the largest customer grew 19% in H1.
The problem: one customer (widely reported as a major social media company) is 29% of H1 revenue and moving to a multi-vendor approach. Management guided 2026 revenue slightly below 2025's $22.7M. Stock dropped 66% YTD on this. Full exit would erase ~$7M of annual revenue and push the company back below breakeven.
Bull case: banking/lending is 48% of revenue, growing 39% YoY via the Desktop product and Alloy fintech channel. 500 customers across 14 verticals, up from 200 two years ago. 1.5x EV/revenue for a 91%-margin SaaS business is absurdly cheap if revenue holds. Comparable private companies trade at 5-15x. Synthetic identity fraud up 300%, deepfake fraud up 1,000%+, making barcode validation more valuable.
Bear case: 5% insider ownership, no CEO open-market buying. One active analyst. 200K daily volume. $134M accumulated deficit. If banking decelerates and the customer leaves, revenue falls to $16-17M with no path to profitability.
Watch: Q3 results (November) show the customer's actual volume impact. Banking growth above 30% is the replacement engine. Any insider buying would be the strongest signal, and its absence is notable.
This is a binary bet on whether the diversification that took retail from 55% to 26% can absorb the loss of a 29% customer. The moat is real, the math works if revenue holds, and the price assumes the worst.
Maybe the ceo can’t buy due to an upcoming acquisition, or maybe he’s a degenerate gambler and has no money.
It’s just crazy that management isn’t buying this at 2.28
I really have no idea why this company is so small and unknown.
Intellicheck (IDN) — $2.28, $46M market cap, Oct 2026
Intellicheck is a SaaS identity verification company that checks barcodes on government IDs against proprietary U.S. DMV data. The DMV relationship is the moat: it validates encoded data, not images, which is harder to fake and harder to replicate.
Q2 revenue grew 16% YoY to $5.9M. Gross margin is 91%. Turned profitable in 2025 after years of losses. Five straight quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA. $11.8M cash, zero debt. The base ex the largest customer grew 19% in H1.
The problem: one customer (widely reported as a major social media company) is 29% of H1 revenue and moving to a multi-vendor approach. Management guided 2026 revenue slightly below 2025's $22.7M. Stock dropped 66% YTD on this. Full exit would erase ~$7M of annual revenue and push the company back below breakeven.
Bull case: banking/lending is 48% of revenue, growing 39% YoY via the Desktop product and Alloy fintech channel. 500 customers across 14 verticals, up from 200 two years ago. 1.5x EV/revenue for a 91%-margin SaaS business is absurdly cheap if revenue holds. Comparable private companies trade at 5-15x. Synthetic identity fraud up 300%, deepfake fraud up 1,000%+, making barcode validation more valuable.
Bear case: 5% insider ownership, no CEO open-market buying. One active analyst. 200K daily volume. $134M accumulated deficit. If banking decelerates and the customer leaves, revenue falls to $16-17M with no path to profitability.
Watch: Q3 results (November) show the customer's actual volume impact. Banking growth above 30% is the replacement engine. Any insider buying would be the strongest signal, and its absence is notable.
This is a binary bet on whether the diversification that took retail from 55% to 26% can absorb the loss of a 29% customer. The moat is real, the math works if revenue holds, and the price assumes the worst.
Maybe the ceo can’t buy due to an upcoming acquisition, or maybe he’s a degenerate gambler and has no money.
It’s just crazy that management isn’t buying this at 2.28
This post was edited on 10/3/26 at 7:59 am
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:42 pm to bayoubengals88
I bought a few May $3 options.
really glad I did not buy it back around Y2K!!! At $145
really glad I did not buy it back around Y2K!!! At $145
Posted on 10/6/26 at 3:12 pm to kjacksonp
Added Feb $3 calls today
Posted on 10/13/26 at 7:57 am to damnlambert
Posted on 10/23/26 at 9:05 am to bayoubengals88
Hey people...
Open interest jumped by 1,000 yesterday as the stock is seriously moving...
OI is now 2,775
Open interest jumped by 1,000 yesterday as the stock is seriously moving...
OI is now 2,775
Posted on 10/23/26 at 9:51 am to bayoubengals88
ANOTHER THOUSAND BOUGHT TODAY at .30 
Posted on 10/23/26 at 9:53 am to bayoubengals88
I was coming here to say this! someone knows something..
This post was edited on 10/23/26 at 9:54 am
Posted on 10/23/26 at 9:57 am to damnlambert
I finally saw where several Directors bought on the open market earlier this month.
This post was edited on 10/23/26 at 9:57 am
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