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Posted on 7/12/24 at 9:16 am to LSURussian
quote:
EDIT: I think I found the data. Is this what you're referring to?
Close. Consumer Loans: Credit Cards and Other Revolving Plans, All Commercial Banks
I prefer that one as it's updated weekly. It's not total debt, but I think it gives a better view of what's going on with consumer discretionary spending (especially when looked at in conjunction with other debt, real wages and delinquencies).
quote:
EDIT2: The % increase in household debt was only 1.05%. Was that really seeing consumers "exploded their debt"??
I was speaking more about the cumulative effect of the debt explosion since 2021 which now has incredibly high interest rates. I think the growth in how much it takes to service that debt is a story many have overlooked when discussing consumer spending (which then becomes more important as Unemployment rises).
This post was edited on 7/12/24 at 9:26 am
Posted on 7/12/24 at 9:24 am to roadkill
quote:
I don't have a source to quote but have heard several talking heads claim the US is borrowing $1T every hundred days this year.
It's a bit of very generous rounding or else they are talking about total spending. If we hit $1.8T in deficit spending, for 365 days a year that comes to $4.9B per day or $986B every 200 days. Total outlays for 2024 are estimated to be $6.1T, which comes out to $1.6T every 100 days.
OMB budget historicals
This post was edited on 7/12/24 at 9:25 am
Posted on 7/12/24 at 10:04 am to evil cockroach
quote:
awesome, just one more percentage to go! Keep raising rates.
Inflation is a significantly lagging indicator. As long as it trends downward, there's no reason to raise rates simply because we haven't yet hit the target rate.
Now, I'm someone who thinks any inflation whatsoever is a silent tax that should be avoided, but I don't run the Fed
Posted on 7/12/24 at 10:07 am to jmcwhrter
quote:
just paid $27 for olive oil at Costco
cooling my arse
A reduction in the rate of inflation != deflation.
Which I feel like everyone on this board should know by this point
Posted on 7/12/24 at 11:13 am to Joshjrn
quote:
quote:
just paid $27 for olive oil at Costco
cooling my arse
A reduction in the rate of inflation != deflation.
Correct but CPI is a political metric that is massaged by the BLS to hit whatever target is politically expedient (while still being somewhat believable to the masses). Yesterday a slight surprise to the downside was needed to set up a cut in September. Nevermind ppi hitting above estimates today, lol.
The spread between US rates and Japanese rates has to close and soon or the Japanese will be forced to start dumping a significant portion of their 1.2T stack of treasuries. It is no surprise that Janet's 30yr auction sh!t the bed yesterday on the heels of the previous night's yen intervention.
Jerome and Janet have so many plates spinning that it's hard to keep track of them all.
Posted on 7/12/24 at 11:25 am to Bard
Okay, thanks. 
Posted on 7/12/24 at 11:34 am to Bard
I'm going to throw another aspect into the mix: PPI (released today).
While Core went down .2%, total went up by .2%. While total has gone up every month this year, June marks the first drop in Core since November. PPI isn't a perfect predictor of CPI, but it can give enough of a general idea of what may likely be coming for CPI over the next month or two.
Currently, while PPI has gone up each month this year, CPI has been roughly flat. That said, it wouldn't surprise me to see CPI for July remain at or above 3% (which then leaves a September cut at about the same odds).
While Core went down .2%, total went up by .2%. While total has gone up every month this year, June marks the first drop in Core since November. PPI isn't a perfect predictor of CPI, but it can give enough of a general idea of what may likely be coming for CPI over the next month or two.
Currently, while PPI has gone up each month this year, CPI has been roughly flat. That said, it wouldn't surprise me to see CPI for July remain at or above 3% (which then leaves a September cut at about the same odds).
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