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Started By
Message
Chances U.S. Economy Will Go into Recession in '08 = 22.0%
Posted on 7/15/08 at 3:42 pm
Posted on 7/15/08 at 3:42 pm
From InTrade.com ( LINK):
US Economy in Recession Contracts
Recession during 2008, Vol = 49930, Bid = 28.0, Ask = 31.9, Last = 31.9
Recession during 2009, Vol = 55, Bid = 60.0, Ask = 64.9, Last = 64.0
NOTE -- Contract Specific Rules:
US Economy in Recession Contracts
Recession during 2008, Vol = 49930, Bid = 28.0, Ask = 31.9, Last = 31.9
Recession during 2009, Vol = 55, Bid = 60.0, Ask = 64.9, Last = 64.0
NOTE -- Contract Specific Rules:
quote:
This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the United States economy goes into recession during the year specified in the contract.
The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the United States economy DOES NOT go into recession during the year specified in the contract.
For expiry purposes, a recession is defined as two successive quarters of negative real GDP growth.
Expiry will be based soley on the data reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce (Bureauof Economic Analysis, Table 1.1.1, "Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product") as reported by the BEA.
If the table as reported at that time indicates that any two consecutive quarters between (and including) Q4 of the previous year and Q4 of the year specified in the contract are negative, then the contract will expire at 100. Otherwise, the contract will expire at 0. For example, if Q4 of 2007 and Q1 of 2008 both experience negative growth then the contract for 2008 will expire at 100.
Clarification: (added 26 Sept 2007) The final figures will be used for expiry - not the advance or preliminary numbers.
Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.
The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.
Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4
Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.
This post was edited on 7/16/08 at 3:17 pm
3
Posted on 7/15/08 at 3:48 pm to Doc Fenton
Just curious, have they released any preliminary info on Q2? I think growth will be stagnant, and Q3 might be a negative, but we'll see...
Posted on 7/15/08 at 3:50 pm to Golfer
Yeah, I think it was about 1.5% annualized real GDP growth for 2Q of 2008.
ETA: Here ya go ( LINK) ...
ETA: Here ya go ( LINK) ...
quote:
Expected GDP Growth
2008, 1Q -- 1.0% (based on latest upward revision)
2008, 2Q -- 1.4% (based on initial data)
2008, 3Q -- 1.5%
2008, 4Q -- 0.6%
2009, 1Q -- 1.3%
2009, 2Q -- 2.0%
This post was edited on 7/15/08 at 3:54 pm
Posted on 7/15/08 at 4:01 pm to Doc Fenton
We just have to be patient and wait for the rebate checks to kick in.
Posted on 7/15/08 at 4:08 pm to Sluggo
quote:
We just have to be patient and wait for the rebate checks to kick in.
Posted on 7/15/08 at 4:13 pm to Doc Fenton
Perhaps the economy isn't in recession, but I and most folks I know certainly are.
My 401K is down 8% or so over the last year.
My Home is worth 10K or so less (almost 10%), over the last year (based on recent sales in neighborhood).
My costs for food, gas, electricity and damn near everything are up.
Raise at work, while better than 95% of co-workers, wasn't enough to match inflation.
Frankly, these things are much more important to me than the US economy. I've never seen people lined up trying to get their money out of banks or this many foreclosure signs...maybe I just lack perspective at age 35, but things look pretty shitty to me.
What about you?
My 401K is down 8% or so over the last year.
My Home is worth 10K or so less (almost 10%), over the last year (based on recent sales in neighborhood).
My costs for food, gas, electricity and damn near everything are up.
Raise at work, while better than 95% of co-workers, wasn't enough to match inflation.
Frankly, these things are much more important to me than the US economy. I've never seen people lined up trying to get their money out of banks or this many foreclosure signs...maybe I just lack perspective at age 35, but things look pretty shitty to me.
What about you?
This post was edited on 7/15/08 at 4:19 pm
Posted on 7/15/08 at 4:23 pm to dawgorama
You are in recession?
So? Deal with it. It's the government's job to make sure that market mechanisms are in place to keep people efficiently productive.
quote:
My costs for food, gas, electricity and damn near everything are up.
Raise at work, while better than 95% of co-workers, wasn't enough to match inflation.
So? Deal with it. It's the government's job to make sure that market mechanisms are in place to keep people efficiently productive.
Posted on 7/15/08 at 4:24 pm to Doc Fenton
So with those numbers...we wouldn't go into a recession...
Posted on 7/15/08 at 4:30 pm to Golfer
Well, it depends on who's making up the definitions. If the population growth rate exceeds the economic growth rate, then you could argue that you had a per capita GDP recession. Some people would argue for a "manufacturing recession," etc.
But basically, no.
But basically, no.
Posted on 7/15/08 at 4:37 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
You are in recession?
Yes. As are many others...
quote:
So? Deal with it. It's the government's job to make sure that market mechanisms are in place to keep people efficiently productive
So? So? You start a thread mocking people with the "onoz" emoticon...and I'm just relaying my experiences (and I'm not alone). Wasn't saying the Gov't should fix my issues (not that they need fixing or that I'm not dealing with them)...I was just pointing out that the GDP numbers don't mean as much to people as the day to day "numbers"...and those clearly suck for many.
Posted on 7/15/08 at 4:40 pm to Doc Fenton
(no message)
This post was edited on 7/15/08 at 4:45 pm
Posted on 7/15/08 at 4:42 pm to MileHigh
im rich beeatch
Posted on 7/15/08 at 4:46 pm to MileHigh
quote:
For the record, I am in a boom. Total household income for the milehigh family will be over 75% higher in 2008 than 2007
My "recession" is proving that my planning was well thought out. Despite higher expenses, loss of wealth from 401K and house value, and stagnant/receding wages...I'm not suffering at all and could withstand bigger hits, but I'm not "normal".
Posted on 7/15/08 at 4:52 pm to dawgorama
quote:
My "recession" is proving that my planning was well thought out. Despite higher expenses, loss of wealth from 401K and house value, and stagnant/receding wages...I'm not suffering at all and could withstand bigger hits, but I'm not "normal".
I edited it out b.c I thought I was being a jerk. I had a personal recession from 01-03 with my income drying up about 20% over that time period.
And I am not surprised you are not suffering, you seem to keep pretty conservative finances (as I do, I am saving 100% of net increase in pay).
Posted on 7/15/08 at 4:57 pm to dawgorama
quote:
My "recession" is proving that my planning was well thought out.
Ding ding ding...only the fiscally irresponsible don't plan...
Posted on 7/15/08 at 4:58 pm to MileHigh
quote:
I edited it out b.c I thought I was being a jerk.
Never stopped you before!
Posted on 7/15/08 at 5:07 pm to dawgorama
People don't go into recession, you dumbass, and the thread was about the state of the U.S. economy, not anecdotal bullshite. Go emote somewhere else.
Posted on 7/15/08 at 5:43 pm to TigerDeacon
quote:
Never stopped you before!
its call striving for improvement. I know being from North La, you are content to be white trash your entire life but some of us try to improve ourselves.
quote:
People don't go into recession
You must not have seen Col's hairline.
Posted on 7/15/08 at 6:55 pm to MileHigh
BOOM!
Posted on 7/15/08 at 8:20 pm to TigerRanter
I'm the only person on this site who milehigh knows is better and better looking than he is, so he likes to throw out stuff like that.
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