Career question: do I apply for this job?

Been with current company for 3 years and a few months, have been promoted twice in that time frame.

New job posted in another total branch of the company that matches my background, though I'm about 1-2 years shy of what their requirements are I hit on everything they're really looking for.

I met with the hiring manager today, again total different branch of the org, so first time meeting her, and she said there were 20 internal and external applicants, but after speaking with me she said she highly recommends I formally apply to get in the mix and she would like to get my formal first round scheduled for Thursday or Friday .

Now the messy part.

My company is currently undergoing a merger that will close within the next 6 months. Covid hit our branch really hard and we haven't really bounced back. Furthermore, we were told that more cuts were coming this year, especially to our branch, before the merger closes.

I was told I was "safe", but lets be honest, they will cut me with the swiftness if someone decides it should happen.

I'm a bit hesitant to apply simply to not rock the boat. What if I apply, word gets out (it will get out), I don't get the job, then I get cut because I rocked the boat? Not ideal. Also, the head of my current org is big on favorites, even admitting it to us, so if I rock the boat and she get word I got a bullseye on my back.

I don't dislike my job at all, but this is a really good opportunity in the branch of the org that is printing money and very safe to be in.

So, with all that said, do I apply for it and take a chance?