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re: Buy and hold
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:38 pm to dutchdanish
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:38 pm to dutchdanish
Excellent post dutch. TA, at its core, is a study in collective psychology. All things from wheat to cotton to equities to retail products have price floors and ceilings at which points buyers and sellers react. If one cannot understand this very basic economic principle then he's free to call TA voodoo and I'm free to call him an idiot who needs to engage in further education as to price and its many influences, some of which are fundamental, and others of which are completely psychological in nature.
0
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:39 pm to kfizzle85
Ah, the old echo chamber that is the Money Talk. Forgot how much fun this can be...
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:40 pm to amsterdam
quote:
amsterdam
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:41 pm to amsterdam
quote:
Ah, the old echo chamber that is the Money Talk. Forgot how much fun this can be...
I don't think fizz is echoing anything I've said. To my understanding, he's not much of a TA guy (yet). I think he and I just have common ground in concluding that you are an idiot who has serious problems with forming a coherent thought.
This post was edited on 4/8/10 at 1:43 pm
Posted on 4/8/10 at 1:43 pm to amsterdam
quote:quote:
Understood, to which my reply was that within the slides (not specifically your argument) the conclusion that "Buy and Hold" is dead or really bad advice is invalid.
That's fine. I think it clearly states that buying and holding in a volatile environment is a sub-par strategy. Terrible advice? Maybe not. Bad advice? Yes. And if you're supposed to be a financial professional who manages money for other people, then it is simply a way to disguise your lack of ability, and you should be freely advising people to just put everything in QQQQ or SPY and ride the [volatile wave].
I never thought thru your slides that you were implicitly favoring "day trading". I understand the point you were making and merely commented on it
Again, my sidenote about Business Week, was intended as nothing more than an illustration. It (once again) shows that this is not a new spin on the viability of equity investing.
If you understood the point, then why are you opining about the viability of equity investing? There is literally no argument from any one in this thread about that, my link included.
Posted on 4/8/10 at 2:01 pm to amsterdam
quote:
Congrats! I would note that most all stock strategies over the past 13 months have been profitable as well.
Good thing I've been trading for a bit longer than that...
amsterdam, I would guess that you did try a little TA. You probably lost your arse (like everyone does at first) and have taken up a personal crusade against it. However, if you cannot understand that risk management is the key to making money in all markets then this "argument" is pointless.
See the chart below.
See the circled volume on big green days. It is simple common sense that such a sudden long interest on such huge volume shows us that bigger money is showing interest in this stock. It's not magic or voodoo, it's simple common sense. Signals like these with latter pullbacks on small volume are good signs that this stock is bullish and is a good long candidate. I have traded this stock twice since Februrary...can you guess where?
Posted on 4/8/10 at 2:05 pm to dutchdanish
You're giving him way too much credit there brah.
Posted on 4/8/10 at 5:29 pm to dutchdanish
Wait, you mean to tell me a Low-Volume Pullback is a bullish signal???? You mean whenever demand is increasing in a greater proportion than supply is increasing, price should therefore increase.? No way! Nonsense! Voodoo I say!
/sarcasm
Let's see, first big increase in volume was around the time of the filing of their quarterly report. Second big increase was an update on their drilling program. Amazing that I could have done ZERO FA, but by strictly playing the chart I'd have known to buy. DISCLAIMER: As a responsible chartist, I'd have known to check the increase in volume against company fundamentals/news. But this is just one clear example of how FA is incorporated into TA. Now show me where your FA can point out positive technical events (amsterdam?).
Therein lies the problem ... FA is ingrained into TA. TA is not ingrained into FA. Thus adhering to only FA is not reasonable.
/sarcasm
Let's see, first big increase in volume was around the time of the filing of their quarterly report. Second big increase was an update on their drilling program. Amazing that I could have done ZERO FA, but by strictly playing the chart I'd have known to buy. DISCLAIMER: As a responsible chartist, I'd have known to check the increase in volume against company fundamentals/news. But this is just one clear example of how FA is incorporated into TA. Now show me where your FA can point out positive technical events (amsterdam?).
Therein lies the problem ... FA is ingrained into TA. TA is not ingrained into FA. Thus adhering to only FA is not reasonable.
This post was edited on 4/8/10 at 5:31 pm
Posted on 4/8/10 at 5:48 pm to RedStickBR
I look at it like this: You need FA to determine the investment (not a trade, an investment). Once you've found your investment, you need TA to determine if can optimize adding to the position at any given time (absent fundamental developments). Any exit from an investment will be presaged by FA, with TA helping determine, again, the optimal exit price within a given time frame. At least, that's how I intend to approach things.
Posted on 4/8/10 at 6:30 pm to kfizzle85
FA tells you what to buy.
TA tells you when to buy those stocks.
To use one and not the other is a huge disservice to yourself.
TA tells you when to buy those stocks.
To use one and not the other is a huge disservice to yourself.
This post was edited on 4/8/10 at 6:32 pm
Posted on 4/8/10 at 6:38 pm to RedStickBR
Yes, that's essentially exactly what I meant, you just said it more succintly. 
Posted on 4/8/10 at 6:41 pm to kfizzle85
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