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Started By
Message
Bearish Dollar VS What Currency?
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:43 am
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:43 am
With a 2 Trillion dollar stimulus, the dollar should drop in value about 15%. Which currency should I buy now to bet against the dollar? I’m not too familiar with other currencies and their values.
Why do I think the dollar will be diminished 15%? We currently have 10.5 trillion dollars in the world today, and we’re about to add another 2 trillion dollars more within a few weeks.
Why do I think the dollar will be diminished 15%? We currently have 10.5 trillion dollars in the world today, and we’re about to add another 2 trillion dollars more within a few weeks.
10
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:44 am to Levatikyn
quote:
Which currency should I buy now to bet against the dollar? I’m not too familiar with other currencies and their values.
A fool and his money......
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:47 am to Levatikyn
Iraqi dinars.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:56 am to Levatikyn
Alright, let me be more specific:
UDN has been steadily going up the past few weeks, and it’s a bear against the US dollar. It tracks world currencies against the dollar, and retuned about 3.5% last week.
There are inverse etfs 4x leveraged against the dollar, but are specific to the Euro, Yen, Canadian/ Australia dollar, etc.
When the dollar drops in value, which currency would you buy to hedge that?
UDN has been steadily going up the past few weeks, and it’s a bear against the US dollar. It tracks world currencies against the dollar, and retuned about 3.5% last week.
There are inverse etfs 4x leveraged against the dollar, but are specific to the Euro, Yen, Canadian/ Australia dollar, etc.
When the dollar drops in value, which currency would you buy to hedge that?
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:02 am to Levatikyn
Do what you want. You’ve obviously already made up your mind, no matter how much evidence to the contrary you are presented with.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:03 am to iAmBatman
Can you pin point evidence I’ve been presented with, or just the 2-3 word replies? ¯\_(?)_/¯
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:30 am to Levatikyn
Your type comes around every few weeks and posts some stupid shite, thinking that they are the smartest person in the room. People are tired of the ignorance. Good luck...hopefully you won’t lose too much money and learn from your experience 
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:30 am to Levatikyn
quote:
With a 2 Trillion dollar stimulus, the dollar should drop in value about 15%
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:30 am to Levatikyn
Quick Google would show that other countries are also passing massive stimulus plans all over the globe. So probably going to be very difficult to know the movement of other currencies which tend to be much more volatile to begin with
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:42 am to UltimaParadox
Yeah, Japan put forward a 100 trillion Yen ($1 trillion) stimulus, Australia a A$130 billion, and Canada $75 bil. I looked through the 27 euro countries and found mixed results. Netherlands is not having it! ??
Thank you for your response Ultima, and you’ve brought up a great point.
Batman, all I know is that I don’t know much. I’m sorry if I’ve given you the impression of some “know-it-all”. You seem to know very much, and can know a persons intentions instantly. Truly a remarkable skill.
Thank you for your response Ultima, and you’ve brought up a great point.
Batman, all I know is that I don’t know much. I’m sorry if I’ve given you the impression of some “know-it-all”. You seem to know very much, and can know a persons intentions instantly. Truly a remarkable skill.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:26 am to iAmBatman
quote:
Do what you want. You’ve obviously already made up your mind, no matter how much evidence to the contrary you are presented with.
Happening a lot since COVID-19. And a lot of rear view mirror blaming. Glad more people are getting into the market, but this place has become more contentious as a result.
To the OP
quote:
There are inverse etfs 4x leveraged against the dollar
Good luck. I feel like every new investor has to learn the inverse leveraged lesson for themselves with real money.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 11:37 am to Levatikyn
quote:
Why do I think the dollar will be diminished 15%? We currently have 10.5 trillion dollars in the world today, and we’re about to add another 2 trillion dollars more within a few weeks.
I wouldn’t be so quick to assume this is a 1:1 relationship. As was stated earlier, several other countries are also passing stimulus bills to devalue their currency.
I’m no expert on FOREX or government monetary policy, but if I were to base my predictions as to who will come out on top in this I’d be looking at one thing: imports/exports as a percent of GDP.
Heavily dependent on food imports with a consumption-lead economy? They’re not about to devalue. Major exporter of value-added products/commodities with a small consumer-base? Definitely going to devalue.
With that in mind I would not even begin to consider the euro, won, yuan, ruble, or Canadian dollar.
The pound sterling is harder to nail down. They’ve been sliding ever since Brexit, however that wasn’t due to government policy until recently. I would have expected them to attempt to hold firm, but who knows now.
Honestly, the only currencies that SHOULD hold their value are those in places I’d be scared to hold currency from for other reasons (generally distrust of the political system). Argentina, India, Turkey, Indonesia. Maybe these places? I cringe at the thought but in a certain sense they work.
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 11:42 am
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:27 pm to Levatikyn
quote:
You seem to know very much, and can know a persons intentions instantly. Truly a remarkable skill.
Thanks...it's one of my many, many specialties
Posted on 3/30/20 at 2:09 pm to Levatikyn
AUD
fiscally responsible country with lots of exports to Asia so currency is in demand.
fiscally responsible country with lots of exports to Asia so currency is in demand.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 5:11 pm to Levatikyn
This seems interesting, but also quite risky
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:56 pm to Levatikyn
The only answer to this is bitcoin (and gold to an extent but that isn’t a currency). The USD will likely remain the best fiat currency in the world against the others.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:17 pm to Levatikyn
quote:
With a 2 Trillion dollar stimulus, the dollar should drop in value about 15%.
How did you come up with this number?
Posted on 4/1/20 at 11:35 am to Decisions
@Decisions :: Thank you for the response. I had considered the pound, but I wasn’t sure. Very convincing to not consider popular currencies, because they’ll be issuing bailouts as well.
@iAmBatman :: Your “specialty” is something everyone can do, state opinion as a fact. I’m coming here to learn, and try to contribute. I’m concerned how you immediately treat someone new to the board.
I B Freeman :: DAUD is 4x leveraged against the dollar vs AUD. It’s gone up 2% the past week, so maybe ??
LSU2a :: Ignorance ???? To put it bluntly. I didn’t consider other countries bailouts, and what a 15% drop would truly signify. But, I got that number from the 10.5 trillion dollars available physically/ electronically today. You put in another 2 trillion, and the dollar drop approximately 15% in value. It was a hunch, and I wanted to see what I was missing. @Decisions and @UltimaParadox were quite helpful and put me back on track. Thank you!
UPDATE: I sold UDN for 3% profit, and bought SDOW yesterday $45.36/ share at 11:08 am, because the market was going to tank. I’m thinking the DOW will hit close to 16-15k. Up 14% so far.
@iAmBatman :: Your “specialty” is something everyone can do, state opinion as a fact. I’m coming here to learn, and try to contribute. I’m concerned how you immediately treat someone new to the board.
I B Freeman :: DAUD is 4x leveraged against the dollar vs AUD. It’s gone up 2% the past week, so maybe ??
LSU2a :: Ignorance ???? To put it bluntly. I didn’t consider other countries bailouts, and what a 15% drop would truly signify. But, I got that number from the 10.5 trillion dollars available physically/ electronically today. You put in another 2 trillion, and the dollar drop approximately 15% in value. It was a hunch, and I wanted to see what I was missing. @Decisions and @UltimaParadox were quite helpful and put me back on track. Thank you!
UPDATE: I sold UDN for 3% profit, and bought SDOW yesterday $45.36/ share at 11:08 am, because the market was going to tank. I’m thinking the DOW will hit close to 16-15k. Up 14% so far.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 11:41 am to Levatikyn
quote:
There are inverse etfs 4x leveraged against the dollar, but are specific to the Euro, Yen, Canadian/ Australia dollar, etc.
When the dollar drops in value, which currency would you buy to hedge that?
1. Don't do it.
2. If you're determined to do it...
3. Pull some FX charts with a 5 year range and see what they look like...
LINK
Pound, HK, Ru, SG. Things like that.
This post was edited on 4/1/20 at 11:43 am
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