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oklahogjr
Arizona State Fan
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
33320 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
quote:

QS if you have patience galore. Solid state battery development partnered with VW will take till 2024 or longer before you know if you have a golden egg or a turd

I'm in with mvst a little for my solid state play. But have thought about QS as well. I just find it hard to believe i wont get it cheaper at some point in the next year or two considering how almost pre revenue they seem to be
This post was edited on 8/27 at 11:24 am


bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
16070 posts
 Online 

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
quote:

How did you start your search and come up with those tickers like that?



BCRX is unavoidable if you've followed the AUPH StockTwits for any length of time.
It's constantly being compared for dumb reasons: Similar prices, similar market caps, similar drug launch dates, etc.

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I wanted to buy around $10 but waited too long. They are doing really well with their new drug just two quarters into its launch. Not as much peak sales potential as Lupkynis (300-400 million vs 1B+), but BCRX has a much larger pipeline.

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I posted some [link=(AKBA research)]https://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/money/akebia-therapeutics-akba--possibly-my-next-long-position/94902708/[/link] months ago, and it is very much in accumulation price range with no changes in data. It's a buy. I've accumulated 333 shares and this is one that I could see myself owning 2-3k shares of (much like AUPH). Possibly more if shares stay sub $5.

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CARA is one that I've followed off and on for as long as I've followed AUPH. For me, it's not as cut and dry as AUPH with numerous drugs, and it's a bit harder for me to understand the science behind their stuff. That's just me, maybe someone can shed light on them.

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I ran across CFMS just last night. I think I saw it on StockTwits. To me, this just seems like a good company with solid growth, but with room for much more.
Current market cap of 280 million and $1.50/share. From their website: "Conformis enables personalized knee and hip joint replacement procedures. We are the only company that designs and manufactures truly personalized joint replacements for your unique anatomy." They hope to take market share away from Stryker (103B dollar company).

The company is profitable:
quote:

ConforMIS (CFMS) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.21 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.08 per share. This compares to loss of $0.03 per share a year ago.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 162.50%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this medical technology company would post a loss of $0.08 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.09, delivering a surprise of -12.50%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.




I'd like to start a position in CFMS very soon.
This post was edited on 8/27 at 2:48 pm


Paul Allen
California Fan
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
69893 posts
 Online 

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
What’s up with your CARA thread? Seems like we’re the only two people that commented in it


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molsusports
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2004
32085 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
Have you been looking at HEPA? They might be in a similar place to AUPH in January 2017. With the advantage of a product aiming at a lot more people. NASH is a disease (or perhaps a syndrome) associated with obesity. That's an emerging worldwide problem. There are no drugs at present capable of stopping the scarring/fibrosis component of NASH and the preliminary results are promising


bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
16070 posts
 Online 

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
Actually, someone just recommended HEPA to me on StockTwits as well.

Could be a great one! Thanks.

As to Paul Allen people come and go…


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jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
4094 posts
 Online 

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
quote:

NASH is a disease (or perhaps a syndrome) associated with obesity. That's an emerging worldwide problem. There are no drugs at present capable of stopping the scarring/fibrosis component of NASH and the preliminary results are promising


Has ANYONE made it past phase 2 NASH trials? I've struck out at least twice on stocks that supposedly had NASH in the bag until they didn't


molsusports
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2004
32085 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
quote:

NASH is a disease (or perhaps a syndrome) associated with obesity. That's an emerging worldwide problem. There are no drugs at present capable of stopping the scarring/fibrosis component of NASH and the preliminary results are promising


Has ANYONE made it past phase 2 NASH trials? I've struck out at least twice on stocks that supposedly had NASH in the bag until they didn't



There is no treatment for NASH after it begins to accelerate. There's another bio play in LPCN which has preliminary results (liver enzymes and biopsy) which are also hopeful but far from phase 3 completion.

I think you are right to worry that NASH is a problem which has not been easy to treat. I believe HEPA to be a better bet than LPCN (because their mechanism of action is different and more directly addresses the fibrosis component of the disease whereas I think the mechanism of action for LPCN is a less direct metabolic push) but both are obviously gambling.

I think investing in a biomedical company before they have an approved drug is a little like investing in a mineral exploration company before they have good drilling data. The odds are much lower of success until after the drilling/approval. I put in really small bets on the companies at those stages because of my concern about the possibility of failure.


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bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
16070 posts
 Online 

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
RSI cooling off. We'll be ready for $18+ soon enough.

Motley Fool 16 August: Ready to buy!

If Motley Fool investors are going to start small with any company, I would recommend growth stock Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (TSX:AUP)(NASDAQ:AUPH). This pharmaceutical company basically shut down during the pandemic. Revenue plummeted as the company saw its funds taken away to help fund the pandemic.

This sounds like a bad situation, and it was. But that’s behind the company now. Aurinia is now a top stock for those seeking to retire early. That’s because of its recent oral therapy drug, LUPKYNIS. This is the first FDA-approved oral therapy drug for lupus nephritis. Analysts are incredibly excited, especially after the company recently reported its future outlook. The drug is set to go global, with management expecting top-line results.

On the outside, it can look bad. The company continues to increase losses, which management chalks up to the launch of LUPKYNSIS. So that means it’s at least short-term losses. The company, however, expects annual revenue to reach close to $50 million in 2021, with enough to fund through 2023. By 2022, sales should increase by an incredible 352%!

Foolish takeaway
Yet today, shares continue to trade at just under $17 per share, down 9.7% in the last year. Meanwhile, analysts believe the company will see an average potential upside in shares of 119% in the next year! This is the perfect growth stock for those looking to retire early.

Aurinia is a company that should explode, creating even more opportunities after two years of hardship. And with shares up 16.7% in the last month alone, it’s a great time to ride the wave.


MSTiger33
LSU Fan
New York City
Member since Oct 2007
17255 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
I am starting to stress a little. I have $15 Jan calls that I bought for $5.69. I have been fighting to get back to green on them. Trying to decide to sell as soon as I am green or do I hold to squeeze a little more out of them.


bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
16070 posts
 Online 

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
Does that mean that you need to see $20.69 to break even?

Oh I see, you probably just need a couple of nice days to sell your contracts for more than what you paid for them. Is that the play?
This post was edited on 9/1 at 7:39 pm


MSTiger33
LSU Fan
New York City
Member since Oct 2007
17255 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
quote:

Does that mean that you need to see $20.69 to break even?

Oh I see, you probably just need a couple of nice days to sell your contracts for more than what you paid for them. Is that the play?



Correct on both. I was hoping for a BO but I don't want to get caught at the end of the year if we are still trading around $15-17. I bought these last year.


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oklahogjr
Arizona State Fan
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
33320 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
quote:

am starting to stress a little. I have $15 Jan calls that I bought for $5.69. I have been fighting to get back to green on them. Trying to decide to sell as soon as I am green or do I hold to squeeze a little more out of them.

After seeing you bought calls and working on my literacy. Those maybe ok. It seems like 20 is as likely as 40 to me at this point. If there is any kind of volatility you might consider rolling up and even potentially out.
This post was edited on 9/1 at 8:34 pm


MSTiger33
LSU Fan
New York City
Member since Oct 2007
17255 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
quote:

Out till January id get the hell out. I've been shopping like 30 or 40 calls that far out.


That is what I am thinking. I will roll it into shares and say F it. I had my chance the other day but I got greedy.


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Aug1
Member since Nov 2013
66 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
I’m in the same boat. $15 Jan 2022 calls. What’s your play here? My basis is a little lower but still trying to figure out if I should hold for Q3 numbers or BO.


MSTiger33
LSU Fan
New York City
Member since Oct 2007
17255 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
I want to hold the options until end of q3 but I am getting nervous.


CorkRockingham
Member since Jun 2017
347 posts
 Online 

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
Getting nervous because you are thinking the recent price action is not indicative of a future buyout?


MSTiger33
LSU Fan
New York City
Member since Oct 2007
17255 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
Basically yes. I am worried that the recent buying will stop and we float back to around the $14-15 range.


bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
16070 posts
 Online 

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
quote:

Basically yes. I am worried that the recent buying will stop and we float back to around the $14-15 range.

I know why you'd think that, but it really seems like this time is different after great earnings and encouraging Q3 scripts.

Many think we can report 18 million for Q3.
Sales are sales. They will drive price from here on, and they're working their arse off to get the word out.


MSTiger33
LSU Fan
New York City
Member since Oct 2007
17255 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
I hope you are right. I bought these things last year thinking that it was plenty of time foe the BO.


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bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
16070 posts
 Online 

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) surges 30% on talk of BMY takeover!
quote:

I have $15 Jan calls that I bought for $5.69. I have been fighting to get back to green on them.
When you say "fighting" did you ever average down? There were some great opportunities!


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