AUPH, SRNE .... CVM?

CVM released this report yesterday

LINK

quote:

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CEL-SCI Corporation (NYSE American: CVM) reported financial results for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2019. The Company also reported key clinical and corporate developments achieved during fiscal 2019.

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Overall, not much to note other than an operating loss.

I'm expecting a runnup prior to YE as some are expecting results from the trial. I can see it dropping back afterwards if the completion date is pushed again. Also, they have a cash issue and will need to do an offering soon. I might bite on it afterwards depending on how AUPH plays out. Going to hold this winner until BO. Earnings mean nothing for a Bio stock other than to gauge cash burn. Of course it will be negative, they aren't selling anything.

I admit i was wrong. If you had bought the day the OP posted this stock, you could've made 20% easy.

But now the share price will drop due to the secondary offering. Unless they have a breakthrough.

So I previously had disliked SRNE. And still think they should have taken the buyout for best outcomes for shareholders overall.


Here is some info i've gathered:

They tied up with some other investors in law suits. This appears to be trying to force companies hand to burn cash.

Management appears to be ok and come from strong connected backgrounds with lots of good experience this was good in my mind from a credentital standpoinnt.

Valuation:
So holy shite could their pipeline potential be huge. What an opportunity from that standpoint. When you look at the 3 drugs they have out there 1 is already on market and other 2 are phase 2 phase 1 studies. If things go well they could have blockbuster potential in there. for reference you're looking at markets with over 10milion patients a year, around 500-1200 per treatment potentially. My estimates put them currently at 148% undervalued approximately(i'm no math expert so take that for what it's worth).

Future catalysts:

since non-opiod pain treatments are a hot topic they could also potentially ride that wave to gain some popularity as they start getting closer to big milestones.

Seems like they have a trial completing and anothers data due end of this year first of next year.

Cash Position:
My biggest critique now is they burn cash left and right. Now after looking into the drugs they're researching the CAR-T stuff seems expensive to research and they're going to need a cash raise here pretty soon to continue trials which results in more debt or dilution. They'll most likely need to start diluting as they have been acquiring debt previously and their current drug on the market isn't paying the bills yet at least.


This one has potential but i'm waiting to see what they do to get cash in the short run before jumping in.

Congrats. I ended up picking up a few hundred shares at a cost average of $8.30. I'm up about 48% at this point. Hoping for more tomorrow.

quote:

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So, SRNE declined the offer. Stocks will fall. Do you use this opportunity to buy more??

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I believe they also posted positive results in one of the Phase 1b/2 trials they had going.. that could be old news, however

either way, they have to be basically out of cash by now..

yo be clear ive never owned this and wouldnt recommend it unless you can get in for super cheap. it never got near whatIid consider a buy after intial buyout offer which was what prompted BB88 to notice and then me to check it out

now SRNE has announced that they're working on some kind of treatment for Coronavirus.... the market is reacting as it probably should -- that Henry Ji and this company are completely full of shite

AUPH is recession proof!