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re: AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
Posted on 12/5/19 at 1:14 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
Posted on 12/5/19 at 1:14 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
I don't invest, but I enjoy following people that do.I've been seeing yall talk up AUPH for about 2 years and now it paid off. Congrats to all. Now hold or sell?
0
Posted on 12/5/19 at 2:30 pm to bayoubengals88
Stock slowly leaked some of the gains today. Think it's more manipulation to try to buy in lower?
Posted on 12/5/19 at 2:45 pm to Tigahs2007
quote:
Stock slowly leaked some of the gains today. Think it's more manipulation to try to buy in lower?
Probably just profit taking.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 4:55 pm to KamaCausey_LSU
quote:
Probably just profit taking.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 6:22 pm to bayoubengals88
So, are you going to find us another one???
Posted on 12/5/19 at 6:33 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
Do you have options on this one? I'm considering going kind of far out with this one.
i've considered it but no I don't trust myself with biotechs and options. good way to lose a lot of money real fast in my experience.
I'm currently waiting on this thing to settle a bit. I plan on cashing out some profits. this run made it way too big a part of my portfolio and in my experience take the wins when you can in biotechs.
but like Peter Lynch says you can't pull off a 10 bagger if you sell when a stock doubles or triples. so my plan may not be the most profitable of them either.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 7:32 pm to beauxgus
SRNE tempts me.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 7:46 pm to bayoubengals88
I sold a portion of mine today to free up some cash.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 8:14 pm to MSTiger33
Congrats longs! Been holding a couple thousand shares of AUPH for a few years now so it is good to see everyone getting paid off who stuck with it. I considered selling some to free up cash, but I believe a buyout is inevitable next year for at least $30+.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:04 pm to bayoubengals88
Thanks for your tips. Nice five figure profit. Time to hit up Dillard's and get some new Spode wares.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:38 pm to TulaneLSU
All gains remain unrealized my Anglican poor boy loving friend 
This post was edited on 12/6/19 at 8:20 am
Posted on 12/5/19 at 9:44 pm to bayoubengals88
Why SRNE was right to reject an offer with a 245% premium
Sorrento has a second investigational product in the non-opioid space. Resiniferatoxin, a single injection treatment for terminal cancer pain, works by blocking pain signals from tumor tissue to the spine. That candidate is in Phase 1 studies.
The two analysts covering Sorrento are bullish on the stock and the average price target is $24.50. The idea of a buyer paying a premium of more than 500% over the current price seems a bit too optimistic in light of the company's losses and the string of missed forecasts. Considering the opportunity in pain management, though, Sorrento might have been right when it said last month's takeover offer undervalued its assets. Currently, with aspirin and ibuprofen too weak to handle severe pain, there aren't a lot of options for non-opioid pain management. Therefore, companies like Sorrento that have developed treatments and have gathered positive clinical trial data from products in the pipeline hold a valuable asset. It would seem reasonable to say that between the 245% premium Sorrento rejected and the 500% premium analysts predict, there might be a middle ground.
Sorrento has a second investigational product in the non-opioid space. Resiniferatoxin, a single injection treatment for terminal cancer pain, works by blocking pain signals from tumor tissue to the spine. That candidate is in Phase 1 studies.
The two analysts covering Sorrento are bullish on the stock and the average price target is $24.50. The idea of a buyer paying a premium of more than 500% over the current price seems a bit too optimistic in light of the company's losses and the string of missed forecasts. Considering the opportunity in pain management, though, Sorrento might have been right when it said last month's takeover offer undervalued its assets. Currently, with aspirin and ibuprofen too weak to handle severe pain, there aren't a lot of options for non-opioid pain management. Therefore, companies like Sorrento that have developed treatments and have gathered positive clinical trial data from products in the pipeline hold a valuable asset. It would seem reasonable to say that between the 245% premium Sorrento rejected and the 500% premium analysts predict, there might be a middle ground.
Posted on 12/5/19 at 10:42 pm to bayoubengals88
We ridin! Time for a SRNE thread.
Posted on 12/6/19 at 8:11 am to bayoubengals88
what pumped it from $1.60? (SRNE)
Posted on 12/6/19 at 8:21 am to jmcwhrter
quote:They rejected a buyout offer for up to $5/share.
what pumped it from $1.60? (SRNE)
It took off quite a bit after that.
Posted on 12/6/19 at 8:30 am to bayoubengals88
Interesting.. Seems scary to back a horse that's staring down most of the big boys in the industry, and threatening to cut into their cash cow
is my understanding correct that they already have a product on the market?
is my understanding correct that they already have a product on the market?
This post was edited on 12/6/19 at 8:44 am
Posted on 12/6/19 at 8:53 am to bayoubengals88
Are you reinvesting in AUPH, in anticipation of a higher yield, or are you already moving to SRNE?
Posted on 12/6/19 at 9:27 am to pkloa
quote:I haven't touched a share. I'm long AUPH.
Are you reinvesting in AUPH, in anticipation of a higher yield
They'll either continue to develop and commercialize much needed drugs, or they will get bought out.
I can't see myself selling for 15-20 when valuations of 30-40 or higher are likely in the future. These valuations are based on simple math:
The price of the drug and the demand for the drug. Not to mention Voclosporin now has 4 different indications, only one of which is currently priced in.
I'll move into SRNE if it goes back below 3, and I'll do it slowly. I'm not overly concerned with the next big thing yet.
Edit: If AUPH does another public offering and the price drops significantly because of it then I'll do what I can to buy more.
This post was edited on 12/6/19 at 9:30 am
Posted on 12/6/19 at 9:46 am to bayoubengals88
Two routes:
1. By continuing to commercialize Voclosporin alone they might need more capital. It'll be a close call. The company has no debt, and cash reserves north of 100 million.
1b. Another large indication to consider is Dry Eye Syndrom (DES). They've already challenged Restasis for market share and VOS (Voclosporin Ophthalmic Solution) and came out ahead on topline data. VOS was more effective than Restasis (the current standard of care).
Restasis currently brings in 1.5 billion for Allergan, which shows the market potential for VOS.
Developing these two drugs without partnership will take time and money, but would also provide the greatest reward for shareholders. If successful, then Aurinia becomes a 6-8 billion dollar company, which translates to $56 to $75 per share.
2. Buyout. With the company knowing that they can climb to a 6-8 billion valuation would they take 4 billion or $37.60/share in 3 months? That's something we just can't know!
These are the reasons why I continue to hold.
1. By continuing to commercialize Voclosporin alone they might need more capital. It'll be a close call. The company has no debt, and cash reserves north of 100 million.
1b. Another large indication to consider is Dry Eye Syndrom (DES). They've already challenged Restasis for market share and VOS (Voclosporin Ophthalmic Solution) and came out ahead on topline data. VOS was more effective than Restasis (the current standard of care).
Restasis currently brings in 1.5 billion for Allergan, which shows the market potential for VOS.
Developing these two drugs without partnership will take time and money, but would also provide the greatest reward for shareholders. If successful, then Aurinia becomes a 6-8 billion dollar company, which translates to $56 to $75 per share.
2. Buyout. With the company knowing that they can climb to a 6-8 billion valuation would they take 4 billion or $37.60/share in 3 months? That's something we just can't know!
These are the reasons why I continue to hold.
Posted on 12/6/19 at 9:55 am to bayoubengals88
Ditto. A buyout next year is imminent in my opinion. The new CEO was brought it just for that. $30+ is possible. I imagine it will come in Q3 after the P3 dry eye trial is completed. Biggest bang for the buck if it is successful. Readout is expected in Q2 then another quarter for BO
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