re: AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals

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What price point are you selling at? Think this will run up today or tomorrow?

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I've never sold a stock I've bought.

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If this gets bought out should I sell?

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If it jumps to $30 you suggested selling. Should we not wait for a year of the drug sales and see if the stock goes even higher?

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haha good for you. 

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Why I’m bullish on AUPH
I. Nothing about the drug (Voclosporin) or its efficacy has changed

• Phase II results (48 wk. data) from March were the best results that have ever been recorded for Lupus Nephritis. Did I say ever? This is not my opinion or even from Aurinia’s team.

• Here’s a quote from the Department of Medicine at Ohio State University:
o “The AURA trial’s long-term results convincingly demonstrate that the addition of voclosporin to standard of care treatment is superior to standard of care alone. These data are not only statistically significant, but clinically important. Twice as many patients given 23.7mg voclosporin twice daily achieved a complete renal response compared to those treated with placebo. This is an impressive renal response rate and these results may shift the treatment paradigm of LN. Based on these encouraging data, I am looking forward to the Phase III trial of voclosporin in LN.” - Brad Rovin, MD, FASN, Director of Nephrology and Vice Chairman of Research for the Department of Internal Medicine at the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center

• Stock movement at 24 and 48 weeks:

o during October of 2016 share price moved from low $2s to $4.70 on 24 week data release. For fear that Aurinia was running out of cash for the future development of Voclosporin, and some uncertainty concerning management, AUPH fell to $2 again in December of 2016.

o Share price then climbed to the mid $3s with the announcement of Richard Glickman as CEO in February of 2017, and with anticipation of the completion (48 week data) of Phase II trials. This is the data that is highlighted above.

o Complete remission was achieved in 49% of patients at 48 weeks, and partial remission achieved in 68% of patients. Most significant is the P value of less than .001 simply meaning that the odds of Voclosporin’s success are far far greater than they need to be for fda approval (p<.05)

• Stock movement after 48 wk data:

o Shares of Aurinia soared from $3.71 on March 1 to $10.54 by March 13…yeah you could argue that it was overbought, but what drove the stock down to $7 where it stayed for two months was the public offering.

o Aurinia needed cash (this was no secret), so instead of partnering with a larger pharmaceutical Glickman offered around 20 million shares of stock at $6.75 to raise 170 million dollars for the funding of Phase III.

o Why $6.75? well considering the stock was at $3.50 three weeks prior it probably didn’t seem like a bad idea. Who knew AUPH would peak above $10? But the rest is history.
o Now, why did price drop below $7 and even $6 since then? This is a long play that requires patience, and not many people are willing to wait for 3 years until Voc is able to create revenue.

• None of this really matters. Long retail investors along with over 70 institutions are in AUPH for what we think can potentially be a $30/share company in two years.

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