- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals [CEO FIRED!]
Posted on 10/22/21 at 5:21 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 10/22/21 at 5:21 pm to bayoubengals88
My only rationale is big money knew that buyout was imminent and was not bidding their shares.
1
Posted on 10/22/21 at 5:29 pm to Crescent Connection
Well I jumped back on AH. Maybe fomo but interested to see if I can make a buck on BO
Posted on 10/22/21 at 6:15 pm to jimjackandjose
My only regret is that all of my shares are in retirement accounts or my kids utmas
Posted on 10/22/21 at 6:27 pm to MSTiger33
A 10% penalty on 100-400% gains is worth a little immediate withdrawal gratification.
Posted on 10/22/21 at 6:55 pm to Crescent Connection
I have 10 whole shares. Someone text me when it’s the best time to sell.
Posted on 10/22/21 at 8:06 pm to supadave3
Did anyone catch the projected sales numbers from the last week? That, or additional study data might have been a trigger for today's buyout bid.
Posted on 10/22/21 at 8:23 pm to molsusports
2021 guidance has remained unchanged since 5 AUG. Greenleaf said 40-50 million.
Q3 earnings has been pegged at 14.7 million for at least 3 weeks. In all actuality I think it exceeds 18 million.
The kicker could very well be GSK’s shite data on Benlysta, which is a poor, but more established competitor to Lupkynis.
Benlysta’s two year data rendered the drug essentially useless whereas Aurinia’s Voc/Lupkynis demonstrated stellar 33 month data over the summer.
The full 3 year A2 data is due Q4. I’m sure Bristol has had a look…
All that to say, Lupkynis should soon be designated the Standard of Care for a market of 100k patients in the US alone. SOC designation should yield at least 50k patients.
50,000 x $65k annually is upwards of 3b/year with a 16 year patent life.
This has been a no brainer since phase 3 was successful in December of 2019, which is why I’ve never showed concern for the stock price when down. I’m all in.
A buyout below 7 billion would be criminal.
Q3 earnings has been pegged at 14.7 million for at least 3 weeks. In all actuality I think it exceeds 18 million.
The kicker could very well be GSK’s shite data on Benlysta, which is a poor, but more established competitor to Lupkynis.
Benlysta’s two year data rendered the drug essentially useless whereas Aurinia’s Voc/Lupkynis demonstrated stellar 33 month data over the summer.
The full 3 year A2 data is due Q4. I’m sure Bristol has had a look…
All that to say, Lupkynis should soon be designated the Standard of Care for a market of 100k patients in the US alone. SOC designation should yield at least 50k patients.
50,000 x $65k annually is upwards of 3b/year with a 16 year patent life.
This has been a no brainer since phase 3 was successful in December of 2019, which is why I’ve never showed concern for the stock price when down. I’m all in.
A buyout below 7 billion would be criminal.
This post was edited on 10/22/21 at 8:25 pm
Posted on 10/22/21 at 8:29 pm to bayoubengals88
How did you get so interested in this stock on the front end? Do you work in this industry?
Posted on 10/22/21 at 8:38 pm to GeneralLee
I’m a history teacher. I don’t know. I’m an obsessive reader when I get interested in something, and the more I read about AUPH the more I liked it.
I started buying just before phase 2 data readout.
I didn’t even know what a public offering was back then. I soon found out when we jumped from $3 to $10 then fell off a cliff haha.
I’ve enjoyed the process and I’ve learned a lot.
I can’t explain why it just clicked with AUPH.
I like the rare disease space now. It’s so much simpler than oncology.
Have a huge need for a small patient population with little to no competition and a successful trial drug?
Check.
Would love for it to happen again.
Posted on 10/22/21 at 9:00 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
Benlysta’s two year data rendered the drug essentially useless whereas Aurinia’s Voc/Lupkynis demonstrated stellar 33 month data over the summer.
I think you're right. And given the lack of a competing alternative I would guess the buyout is also going to be increased by a monopoly extending through 2037 (barring a new drug sometime in the next decade).
You should feel proud of your patience
Posted on 10/22/21 at 9:44 pm to molsusports
quote:Many smarter than me and knew what to invest in and when, but this potential home run will have me beating the hell out of the S&P over the past four years.
You should feel proud of your patience
Motley Fool guessing the deal will be 7-8 bn.
Came out an hour ago.
Fool Article
Posted on 10/22/21 at 9:49 pm to bayoubengals88
So double the current share price.
If not out there monday PM, I might throw another 10K at it
If not out there monday PM, I might throw another 10K at it
Posted on 10/22/21 at 9:52 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
Motley Fool guessing the deal will be 7-8 bn.
Came out an hour ago.
Fool Article
Which would imply $56 or $62 a share. And might be cheap as hell in terms of the long term value for the buyer.
Posted on 10/22/21 at 9:58 pm to molsusports
I think you’ve got 144 million total float with employee option and such.
$48.61 at 7 billion if my math is correct.
$48.61 at 7 billion if my math is correct.
Posted on 10/22/21 at 10:14 pm to bayoubengals88
So, was the play ever to cash out after a buyout, or do your shares roll over and you just stay on board?
Posted on 10/23/21 at 6:39 am to beauxgus
Definitely cash out to better utilize that money.
Likely it’ll be a cash deal and not not a share to share swap.
So investors will lose their shares anyway.
Likely it’ll be a cash deal and not not a share to share swap.
So investors will lose their shares anyway.
Posted on 10/23/21 at 1:34 pm to bayoubengals88
BB88, can I be lazy and ask for your estimated share price for buyout between 6 and 11 B (at each 1 Billion increment)? TIA
Posted on 10/23/21 at 1:41 pm to Wade Phillips
quote:I'd love to.
can I be lazy and ask for your estimated share price for buyout between 6 and 11 B (at each 1 Billion increment)? TIA
5B - $34.72
6B - $41.66
7B - $48.61
8B - $55.55
9B - $62.49
10B- $69.43
11B- $76.37
12B- $83.31
That should be fully dilluted with 144m shares outstanding (indludes employee packages).
The good news is I think we have a fairly hungry buyer who is feeling pressure to close a deal. BMY just got snubbed by losing 11.5% ownership in Acceleron Pharma due to Merck's 11.5 bn dollar takeover.
This post was edited on 10/23/21 at 1:49 pm
Posted on 10/23/21 at 2:30 pm to bayoubengals88
Thank you! Praying for at least a 5-handle on the price. In the money big time regardless, and have you to thank.
Posted on 10/23/21 at 4:32 pm to Wade Phillips
Crazy, dumb question. Is it too late to buy a few shares and try to swing a moderate profit?
Not trying to make a killing here. Just new to the party and never read this thread till glazing over it now.
Not trying to make a killing here. Just new to the party and never read this thread till glazing over it now.
Page 94 of 167
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News