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Anyone want to spitball how the pipeline interruption will affect the markets?
Posted on 5/8/21 at 9:34 pm
Posted on 5/8/21 at 9:34 pm
Particularly energy, transportation, etc?
If the pipeline outage is significant, would refiners ship their gasoline by rail or tank truck longer distances?
If the pipeline outage is significant, would refiners ship their gasoline by rail or tank truck longer distances?
4
Posted on 5/8/21 at 9:35 pm to TDFreak
And will refiners need to curtail rates if they run out of storage waiting for the pipeline to come back online?
Posted on 5/8/21 at 9:54 pm to TDFreak
Colonial will be back online pretty quickly.
Posted on 5/8/21 at 10:10 pm to castorinho
Posted on 5/9/21 at 8:14 am to TDFreak
Colonial Pipeline Still out today as of 7 a.m. per Reuters.
Also looks like sophisticated hack.
"Bloomberg News, citing people familiar with the matter, reported late on Saturday that the hackers are part of DarkSide and took nearly 100 gigabytes of data out of Colonial's network on Thursday ahead of the pipeline shutdown."
Reuters article on Colonial
Two things so far that it may impact:
1) Congress already ramping up calls for a hearing on pipeline safety, so possibly more red tape for entire midstream industry.
2) Not in the Reuters article but gleaned from elsewhere, supposedly the airlines will be first to feel the effect if the outage stretches into days. Aviation fuel is not stored in large quantities onsite so East Coast terminals will have to scramble for alternate sources to keep East Coast commercial aviation on schedule.
Disclaimer, above based solely on late night initial research inspired by holding small amount of other midstream companies in my portfolio.
Hoping more folks with knowledge of pipeline mechanics chime in.
Also looks like sophisticated hack.
"Bloomberg News, citing people familiar with the matter, reported late on Saturday that the hackers are part of DarkSide and took nearly 100 gigabytes of data out of Colonial's network on Thursday ahead of the pipeline shutdown."
Reuters article on Colonial
Two things so far that it may impact:
1) Congress already ramping up calls for a hearing on pipeline safety, so possibly more red tape for entire midstream industry.
2) Not in the Reuters article but gleaned from elsewhere, supposedly the airlines will be first to feel the effect if the outage stretches into days. Aviation fuel is not stored in large quantities onsite so East Coast terminals will have to scramble for alternate sources to keep East Coast commercial aviation on schedule.
Disclaimer, above based solely on late night initial research inspired by holding small amount of other midstream companies in my portfolio.
Hoping more folks with knowledge of pipeline mechanics chime in.
Posted on 5/9/21 at 8:19 am to TDFreak
Probably going to reroute some Jones act product tankers up to the north east. Or apply for a jones act waiver so they can get non US-flagged product tankers
Posted on 5/9/21 at 7:51 pm to DeCat ODahouse
OK I am back. And here is what I have figured out to-date.
Yes. The airlines could be in for a hit if this pipeline outage remains somewhat prolonged.. This could result in a dip in airline stocks, which might be a pretty good buying opportunity in my opinion.
Also if the pipeline remains down and they (Colonial) cannot offer guarantees it will will be back online, the refiners will need to figure out alternate modes of shipping else they’ll need to cut feed rates. I think this bodes well for Kirby Marine (KEX) which has gasoline barges and for any fuel trucking companies. So far I’ve found PBFX and DKL which might see more orders which will also bode well for PBF and DK. There are others, I haven’t unearthed them all. Rail cars might be used too, but I think trucks and barges seem the more likely play.
Also, if gasoline prices spike, I’d suggest don’t go FOMO buying gasoline futures. It will probably drop back down quickly as soon as Colonial issues a press release saying they’re back online again.
Free advice. TIFWIW
Yes. The airlines could be in for a hit if this pipeline outage remains somewhat prolonged.. This could result in a dip in airline stocks, which might be a pretty good buying opportunity in my opinion.
Also if the pipeline remains down and they (Colonial) cannot offer guarantees it will will be back online, the refiners will need to figure out alternate modes of shipping else they’ll need to cut feed rates. I think this bodes well for Kirby Marine (KEX) which has gasoline barges and for any fuel trucking companies. So far I’ve found PBFX and DKL which might see more orders which will also bode well for PBF and DK. There are others, I haven’t unearthed them all. Rail cars might be used too, but I think trucks and barges seem the more likely play.
Also, if gasoline prices spike, I’d suggest don’t go FOMO buying gasoline futures. It will probably drop back down quickly as soon as Colonial issues a press release saying they’re back online again.
Free advice. TIFWIW
This post was edited on 5/9/21 at 7:55 pm
Posted on 5/9/21 at 8:01 pm to TDFreak
Considering the ramifications in oil makes sense. They could do well as long as Colonial is down. But may go back down when Colonial gets back online. You’re making a guess on how the market reacts with oil though
But the real investment piece here is cybersecurity companies. This event proves the value of cyber security contractors both for prevention and for cleaning up issues. Look for price increases on cybersecurity names like CRWD, PANW, or BB. And there’s no guess work here, this is a high profile cybersecurity issue, and proves that companies can’t manage their own cybersecurity effectively
But the real investment piece here is cybersecurity companies. This event proves the value of cyber security contractors both for prevention and for cleaning up issues. Look for price increases on cybersecurity names like CRWD, PANW, or BB. And there’s no guess work here, this is a high profile cybersecurity issue, and proves that companies can’t manage their own cybersecurity effectively
This post was edited on 5/9/21 at 8:03 pm
Posted on 5/9/21 at 8:06 pm to Upperdecker
True. These might be more day trade plays. Any airline dip might be a good buying opp. Especially airlines that aren’t based in the southeast or northeast. Think SKYW or other names.
Yes cyber security will profit. Might be too late as it will probably gap up at the open.
Colonial is partnering with FEYE btw.
Yes cyber security will profit. Might be too late as it will probably gap up at the open.
Colonial is partnering with FEYE btw.
This post was edited on 5/9/21 at 8:22 pm
Posted on 5/12/21 at 5:05 pm to castorinho
quote:
Colonial will be back online pretty quickly.
Narrator: they did not get back online pretty quickly.
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