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re: Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)- Vadadustat FDA Approved AT LAST!!

Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:05 pm to
Posted by YungBuck
Mandeville
Member since Dec 2017
3250 posts
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:05 pm to
Bought in today at $1.70, love what I’ve read in here and excited to see where this goes
Posted by bulldog95
North Louisiana
Member since Jan 2011
21221 posts
Posted on 11/4/24 at 12:23 pm to
$1.80 right now
This post was edited on 11/4/24 at 12:24 pm
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24746 posts
Posted on 11/4/24 at 12:26 pm to
Great day. All of this due to realization that that contract news was HUGE.

1.30 --> 1.80
Or, + 38%
This post was edited on 11/4/24 at 12:28 pm
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
8952 posts
Posted on 11/6/24 at 9:18 am to


My lots at $0.88 looking great
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24746 posts
Posted on 11/6/24 at 9:58 am to
quote:

My lots at $0.88 looking great



Will you see this one through with a high price target?
$5, $10, or $20?
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
8952 posts
Posted on 11/6/24 at 10:42 am to
Just depends on results.

2022 revenues at 292M. Projected to be around 172M for this year.

Need to see continued strength in the business and ignore stock price.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24746 posts
Posted on 11/6/24 at 10:57 am to
quote:

2022 revenues at 292M
Is this accurate? Looks too high.
(Looked it up: Achieved Auryxia revenue of $177.1 million representing 24.5% growth versus 2021;

Nevermind, I see what you're saying now:
quote:

License, collaboration, and other revenue was $5.5 million for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $17.5 million for the fourth quarter of 2021, and $115.5 million for the full-year 2022 compared with $71.4 million for the full-year 2021. The increase for the full-year 2022 reflects a nonrefundable and non-creditable payment of $55.0 million that Otsuka paid to Akebia in July 2022 under the terms of a termination and settlement agreement between the companies. In addition, Akebia recognized $15.5 million related to previously deferred revenue as of the date of termination and $9.6 million of non-cash consideration related to Otsuka's obligations to complete certain agreed upon clinical activities. Additionally, Akebia recognized $19.1 million in collaboration revenue in 2022 from the cost sharing arrangement with Otsuka prior to the termination, compared to $53.0 million for the full-year 2021.


quote:

Projected to be around 172M for this year.
Yes, on Auryxia alone.

Do you have access to any Vafseo estimates for 2025 and beyond?
This post was edited on 11/6/24 at 11:10 am
Posted by reds on reds on reds
Member since Sep 2013
4957 posts
Posted on 11/7/24 at 6:48 am to
Big hit PM this morning. Looks like earnings are below projected. Anyone listen to the call?
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24746 posts
Posted on 11/7/24 at 6:53 am to
I’m pretty sure that this year’s earnings is meaningless compared to what is to come. Auryxia is their only commercial product, has been for years, and revenue is declining because it lost exclusivity recently. There’s a generic.

It’s all about what Vafseo can do starting next year. Peak sales for Auryxia were 200 million annually. Vafseo could be 10x that.

CFO just said that sales are almost exclusively focused on Vafseo.
This post was edited on 11/7/24 at 7:09 am
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
61447 posts
Posted on 11/7/24 at 8:38 am to
quote:

I’m pretty sure that this year’s earnings is meaningless compared to what is to come. Auryxia is their only commercial product, has been for years, and revenue is declining because it lost exclusivity recently. There’s a generic.
I am hoping it gets beat up a little more over the next few days, if stable mid next week I will add to my position. Just watching to see how this dip shakes out.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24746 posts
Posted on 11/7/24 at 8:51 am to
I trimmed my AUPH position on the pop this morning and bought AKBA at 1.68

I’m comfortable with anything under my cost basis, which is around 1.70 now.

I think it’s a no brainer with the percentage of patients they have on contract.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24746 posts
Posted on 11/7/24 at 10:33 am to
quote:

Big hit PM this morning.
We call that "dumb money"
Posted by ynlvr
Rocket City
Member since Feb 2009
5551 posts
Posted on 11/7/24 at 11:58 am to
Envious on that $1.68 pick up. I missed it. I did catch it at the $1.31 dip weeks ago for a clean haul. Holding into 2025 given all the upcoming Q1 optimism.
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
61447 posts
Posted on 11/7/24 at 1:06 pm to
My cost basis is like 1.88. So if I grab 1200 or so more shares next week it won’t mess me up too bad.

That would give be 3500 or so shares.
Posted by ynlvr
Rocket City
Member since Feb 2009
5551 posts
Posted on 11/7/24 at 1:33 pm to
I have Plenty. Willing to take more below $1.70
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24746 posts
Posted on 11/7/24 at 1:39 pm to
I'm pretty satisfied with my 3,594 now. Now we wait for $10!
Posted by K9
wayx....BOBO IN '19 &lt-- oops
Member since Sep 2012
26844 posts
Posted on 11/27/24 at 6:25 am to
What are your thoughts on GSK pulling their competitor pharm (daprodustat) off the market?

Stock twits folks seem to be mostly bullish but some are saying could mean a generic is on the way.
Posted by jangalang
Member since Dec 2014
52922 posts
Posted on 11/27/24 at 7:23 am to
How do yall invest into biotech and medical stocks without having a doctorate degree? Every invester needs a niche and a frame of reference. All bio tech addresses issues and complications. It's a hailmary to even get an approval and then the company performs flawlessly in an uncrowded field.

I got lucky with TMDX only because it was straightforward to the layman. The world doesn't want to transfer live organs in coolers.
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
8952 posts
Posted on 11/27/24 at 8:38 am to
quote:

How do yall invest into biotech and medical stocks


I usually buy it, sell at a loss, watch it skyrocket after sale.
Posted by jangalang
Member since Dec 2014
52922 posts
Posted on 11/27/24 at 9:02 am to
quote:

I usually buy it, sell at a loss, watch it skyrocket after sale.

That was me with several biotechs. SAVA is a horror story
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