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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
111003 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
quote:

Congrats to those who picked Celgene!
Their feast will turn into famine as soon as CELG's buyout by BMY is completed, assuming that happens this calendar year.

As rule #6 says on page 1, the acquired company's symbol will disappear and be replaced by the acquiring company's symbol. The buyout premium will be lost when that happens.

That's true unless we can figure out a way to carry over the premium to the surviving company's symbol on MorningStar.com.

Below is each of our stocks YTD % performance as of close of trading, 1/4/2019, as reported by MorningStar.com, sorted from highest to lowest performance.

Stock Percent

CELG 32.47
DNR 28.07
NBR 19.5
BHC 15.05
CRON 13.38
CPE 12.79
ROKU 10.08
GILD 9.11
WYNN 8.75
GE 8.72
STNE 8.41
VKTX 7.84
ET 7.34
CHK 7.14
TUP 7.1
HAL 6.92
REV 6.91
AGN 6.67
AA 6.62
ZS 6.53
TELL 6.47
COMM 6.41
JD 6.4
OLN 6.36
TAP 6.32
T 6.31
EAF 6.03
C 5.9
KNX 5.86
LULU 5.71
F 5.62
KMI 5.59
BP 5.56
ACB 5.24
FB 5.23
VNOM 5.15
CGC 5.06
BUD 4.98
SMG 4.9
AMZN 4.89
GS 4.79
IP 4.71
VIAB 4.67
NBIX 4.62
XOM 4.34
LNG 4.33
LYB 4.26
TWTR 4.21
PM 4.18
MS 4.16
JPM 3.96
RDS.A 3.91
BAC 3.81
RDS.B 3.8
SQ 3.73
STZ 3.61
ORCL 3.46
GOOG 3.39
ALLY 3.35
NKTR 3.32
GOOGL 3.17
SPLK 3.04
CALM 3.03
LUV 2.97
AMD 2.93
VLO 2.72
COP 2.25
WTRH 2.24
SSRM 2.07
IR 2.05
NVDA 2.01
BABA 1.96
SNE 1.93
FDX 1.92
CVX 1.87
MO 1.84
SO 1.8
INFO 1.73
DE 1.68
TLK 1.6
TTD 1.6
CIM 1.52
BA 1.42
BX 1.41
LRCX 1.39
HMN 1.31
V 1.3
ATVI 1.29
IDCC 1.29
LMT 1.22
NOC 1.22
HD 1.05
PVH 0.99
VRSK 0.86
CAT 0.85
APPN 0.75
CRM 0.72
NKE 0.69
NOW 0.66
INTC 0.62
PG 0.62
MA 0.59
WDC 0.51
KO 0.46
MCD 0.4
ITW 0.39
EQIX 0.35
MSFT 0.35
MRVL 0.31
WMT 0.31
KDP 0.27
VZ 0.25
UN 0.24
NVS 0.09
ADBE -0.02
IAC -0.02
SCI -0.02
W -0.02
DIS -0.04
EL -0.14
CSCO -0.18
ADSK -0.26
TDOC -0.26
SHOP -0.28
TSS -0.37
BBY -0.4
RCII -0.49
FDC -0.53
NEE -0.74
HCA -0.85
ZTS -0.91
JNJ -0.95
CBLK -0.97
EXC -1.06
TTWO -1.2
FEYE -1.23
SBUX -1.29
ALK -1.4
PFE -1.49
CNC -1.54
TXN -1.69
VTR -1.69
DPZ -1.77
HEI -2.54
AUPH -2.64
DXCM -2.97
AMRN -3.01
UNH -3.81
ANET -3.91
ANTM -4.84
SMAR -4.99
AAPL -6.01
This post was edited on 1/5 at 2:19 pm


Hussss
Auburn Fan
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
3901 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
There is no doubt about it. VIX should average 20-25 throughout this year.

My picks won't do well on days like yesterday but will hang tough during drawdowns.

Thanks for hosting Russian.

Good luck everyone


arkiebrian
Arkansas Fan
Midtown
Member since Nov 2006
3715 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
quote:

I'm really sorry, brian.

No worries I’m the dummy for missing out.

But I do have my placeholder there on 1/5 for shits and giggles.


oklahogjr
Arizona State Fan
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
27572 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
quote:

That's true unless we can figure out a way to carry over the premium to the surviving company's symbol on MorningStar.com.

so Russian how would you calc this normally? the year of old stock till change over date plus change over date to year end of new stock?


jerryc436
LSU Fan
Franklin
Member since Jan 2014
187 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
I have no idea how it could be done using only Morningstar. From what I have read BMY is trading 1 share of its stock plus $50 for each share of CELG. I own some CELG so I think my BMY plus $50 is what my value of BMY is worth after the close of deal. But the rules of the contest did not allow for this as far as I can tell.


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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
111003 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
I don’t know.

MorningStar doesn’t have an option of “from date” to “to date” performance.

It’s strictly “YTD.”

For example, if CELG is +30% YTD on the effective date of the merger and BMY is +5% YTD on that date and the next day CELG disappears from the MorningStar watch list and BMY is +5.1% on that day, then what??

Not to sound selfish but I wouldn’t be thrilled doing a lot of manual computations making adjustments to BMY’s YTD performance every time I post an update.


leoj
Texas A&M Fan
Member since Nov 2010
2850 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
I don’t think there is an easy way to do it. I think the rules as they are now are fine. Without the buyout you wouldn’t have that kind of actual gain, so why should you benefit from it?


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
111003 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
I like the way you think.

We ran into this twice in our contest in 2018 and trying to make an allowance for a gain on a buyout while keeping it simple was well above my pay grade.

It’s why I included a rule regarding acquisitions.

It sucks for someone who gets lucky and one of his companies gets acquired at a big premium and then goes away without him getting a benefit in our contest from the buyout.


leoj
Texas A&M Fan
Member since Nov 2010
2850 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
Not to mention the CELG buyout is not that simple anyway. $50, a share of BMY, and then a conditional $9/share?

Even a normal buyout is hard with your system and that’s understandable. We all know the rules, this is for fun, I don’t think anyone expects you to break your back over one crazy situation.


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10
oklahogjr
Arizona State Fan
Gold Membership
Member since Jan 2010
27572 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
quote:

Not to sound selfish but I wouldn’t be thrilled doing a lot of manual computations making adjustments to BMY’s YTD performance every time I post an update

yeah it's difficult because there are multiple conversions potentially happening and deal can be in both equity and cash or either one only


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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
111003 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
quote:

There is no doubt about it. VIX should average 20-25 throughout this year.
I have doubts about that.


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
111003 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
quote:

I'm really sorry, brian.


No worries I’m the dummy for missing out.

But I do have my placeholder there on 1/5 for shits and giggles.


Aw, hell!! You're being too damn nice about it.

I added you to our contest this morning.

You had two things going for you:

1) 4 of your 5 stocks were already in my database for the 'vlookup' table I use on Excel, with only FCX needing to be added and that made it easy for me to add you, and,

2) one of your stocks is AAPL which has the worst YTD performance since January 1 of any of our 150 stocks in our database. That told me you're not trying to just pick stocks that give you an advantage over the rest of us who picked our stocks before the deadline.

So, welcome to the 2019 Pick 'em Contest!

Your results will be included the next time I post an updated ranking.
This post was edited on 1/6 at 2:26 pm


Hussss
Auburn Fan
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
3901 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
Long term VIX average is close to 20. Don't see much volatility this year with everything going on globally?


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
111003 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
quote:

Long term VIX average is close to 20.
The 5 year average for VIX is 14.9.

The 15 year average is 18.4.

LINK

So, no, I don't agree that "there is no doubt about it" that "VIX should average 20-25 throughout this year."


PlanoPrivateer
LSU Fan
Frisco, TX
Member since Jan 2004
2135 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
quote:

I added you to our contest this morning.

Good move on your part. I don't think that anyone would be upset. Except those that are depending on winning the contest and getting free "Premium Access" to Tiger Droppings.


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20
Hussss
Auburn Fan
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
3901 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
quote:

The 5 year average for VIX is 14.9


So do you think QE is coming back? QE has a LOT to do with low vol levels the past 5 years.


Historical VIX level is close to 20 even with all the QE factored in on your 5 year timeframe.

LINK


Not trying to argue here (we are all here to become better investors and traders) but instead just want to see the other side of my convictions on why exactly you have doubts about volatility being elevated this year with everything going on globally.


ynlvr
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2009
2287 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
The VIX seems to have settled down over recent history possibly due to the prevalence of auto-pilot (target date) funds assuming a larger percentage of total invested funds. Turnover is reduced when retail investors are not knee jerking around the markets thereby bringing the VIX average as well as variances down.
This post was edited on 1/6 at 12:30 pm


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00
LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
111003 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
quote:

So do you think QE is coming back?
Nope.
quote:

QE has a LOT to do with low vol levels the past 5 years.

Nope.


Hussss
Auburn Fan
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
3901 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
Insightfulness noted. Great job. Thanks


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
111003 posts

re: 2019 Top 5 Stock Pick 'em Contest. Rankings updated through Friday, 1/18/19 on page 17.
quote:

Insightfulness noted. Great job.
There is no doubt about it.


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