re: 2 year inverted yield curve

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Real estate prices are wayyyy overinflated.

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Yes and no. Prices in real estate are highly vulnerable to demand. Unlike something like potatoes or new shoes, you can't simply make new land to lower the price of existing land (housing is the real focus, but you need land upon which to build housing). This means demand has to be driven down by barriers to entry, normally that's going to be higher interest rates.

Here's the problem: rates were ridiculously low for such a long period that a massive amount of inventory is now in a scenario where if the seller sold, they would have trouble finding a replacement home to buy due to the increase in property values and the rise in interest rates. I speak on this from personal experience (we bought in 2014 with a 4% interest rate, our home is valued at nearly 2x what we paid for it, but selling then paying off the mortgage and using the rest to put down on even just a comparable sqft home would mean an increase in mortgage payments).

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I'll buy a house if/when it happens and give a big middle finger to all these greedy people and real estate agents letting them know that "No you're 1500 sq ft house isn't worth remotely $500k, more like $200k"

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In order for the real estate market to restructure to the price point you're talking about (a market where 1500sqft is going for $500k drops to $200k), we would need either a recession at least on the scale of 2008 or an outright depression.

Why? Because the issue, as SC has stated, isn't real estate so much as it is currency valuation. Too much currency floating around the economy devalues the currency. Inflation has become resistant to the Fed's current rates primarily because of continued excess consumer and federal debt creation (which is essentially money creation if you're never paying off/down your debt). You can't borrow your way out of debt like that and you can't create greater currency value by creating more currency.

Taking this all together means that in order for real estate prices to readjust, we're going to have to first go through a world of economic shite (read: Unemployment sustained above 10% for at least months, fricktons of bankruptcy filings, etc) in order to create deflation (which is where the liquidity level of the economy dries up because lots fewer have jobs at all, or jobs which enable them to buy only the bare minimum while being squeezed into the cheapest available living arrangements).

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I hope there is another recession.

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Be careful what you wish for.

I read something recently that Boomers own almost 40% of the homes nationwide. That’s a huge number that will naturally unwind over the next 10 or so years. Even if they leave them to siblings there will be a lot of selling of mom and dad’s place into a younger group of buyers that if he not have the resources to pay the perceived worth.

I wonder how this will impact prices in the long term?

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Usually recession follows the inversion. The Following recession usually comes within months.

We’re 2 years in now and no recession.

I’ve never seen anything like this.

How long can this go?

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We haven't been in fiscal dominance since the 40s.

LINK

Fantastic meme thread of the current situation.

Would y’all say now is a risky time to switch jobs to O&G where the risk is recession and layoff due to low seniority vs more security at current job due to higher seniority?

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For my 401k, this is The Year of the Money Markets. All of my new allocations have been going into VFVXX or SPRXX. That said, I'm still holding my dividend stocks (since almost all of them reinvest).

I'm risk-averse so while some here were making good bank on the bulls earlier in the year, I was getting ready for what I believe is coming. That said, I'm not entirely convinced we're into the early stages of the shite yet (waiting to see Unemployment moving upward above 4% with momentum).

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The shite is indeed coming, but when is the ?