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Message
What Canada’s offense could have been in 2017
Posted on 12/31/17 at 5:23 am
Posted on 12/31/17 at 5:23 am
I know, if my aunt had nuts . . .
But if you are interested, put aside your bias for/against Matt Canada and for/against Ed Orgeron & Les Miles. It is what it is.
Orgeron is the coach and Canada is the OC for at least one more game.
Did his offensive scheme underperform for the Tigers this year? At first glance the answer is an obvious YES.
But when looking at the NCAA Offensive stats you might reconsider if we can agree on a couple minor assumptions:
1)While DE16’s performance numbers are outstanding, he consistently missed open receivers (especially early in the year & Bama) and regularly failed to read 2nd & 3rd progressions. Most SEC QBs do this much better.
2)Due to DE16 accuracy issues, Canada cut the field down in the passing game (fact known inside the building) and seldom threw short/intermediate middle except to F backs due to fear of interceptions. This probably reduced passing game effectiveness/yardage.
3) Our WRs had greater than expected difficulty in getting separation from DBs(especially press man), thus making them only marginally effective in Canada’s scheme (really only Chark was targeted regularly). This greatly reduced WRs productivity.
If any/all of these points would lead you to believe that improvement in these areas should have led to even 2 more completions/gm, the following might be the offensive results for the 2017 Tigers:
Make the 8 FGs missed < 50 yds: pts/gm rank moves from 72 to 52
If score 1 more TD/gm: offensive rank (pts/gm)moves from 72 to 23.
Complete 2 more passes/gm(at current yd/play) – total offense/gm rank goes from 54 to 31 (Clemson is #30)
So if we finished 23rd in pts/game and 31st in total offense/game would you think that Canada’s offense worked and was successful in his first year at LSU? Would you like the pre-snap shifts better?
Was it the system that failed us or was it a failure of the players to produce that kept us from having more success?
But if you are interested, put aside your bias for/against Matt Canada and for/against Ed Orgeron & Les Miles. It is what it is.
Orgeron is the coach and Canada is the OC for at least one more game.
Did his offensive scheme underperform for the Tigers this year? At first glance the answer is an obvious YES.
But when looking at the NCAA Offensive stats you might reconsider if we can agree on a couple minor assumptions:
1)While DE16’s performance numbers are outstanding, he consistently missed open receivers (especially early in the year & Bama) and regularly failed to read 2nd & 3rd progressions. Most SEC QBs do this much better.
2)Due to DE16 accuracy issues, Canada cut the field down in the passing game (fact known inside the building) and seldom threw short/intermediate middle except to F backs due to fear of interceptions. This probably reduced passing game effectiveness/yardage.
3) Our WRs had greater than expected difficulty in getting separation from DBs(especially press man), thus making them only marginally effective in Canada’s scheme (really only Chark was targeted regularly). This greatly reduced WRs productivity.
If any/all of these points would lead you to believe that improvement in these areas should have led to even 2 more completions/gm, the following might be the offensive results for the 2017 Tigers:
Make the 8 FGs missed < 50 yds: pts/gm rank moves from 72 to 52
If score 1 more TD/gm: offensive rank (pts/gm)moves from 72 to 23.
Complete 2 more passes/gm(at current yd/play) – total offense/gm rank goes from 54 to 31 (Clemson is #30)
So if we finished 23rd in pts/game and 31st in total offense/game would you think that Canada’s offense worked and was successful in his first year at LSU? Would you like the pre-snap shifts better?
Was it the system that failed us or was it a failure of the players to produce that kept us from having more success?
This post was edited on 12/31/17 at 5:54 am
6
Posted on 12/31/17 at 5:37 am to LongTime Tiger
Good analysis
I feel many of the offensive issues were O line related. As the season progressed and the young guys got experience things came together. The Auburn game is were they found the confidence and started to gel as a unit.
LSU is close. The recruitment of all those big men will certainly shore up the lines and provide more depth. Lots of good skill guys already on campus but they are young and inexperienced. 2019 can be a very special year.
I feel many of the offensive issues were O line related. As the season progressed and the young guys got experience things came together. The Auburn game is were they found the confidence and started to gel as a unit.
LSU is close. The recruitment of all those big men will certainly shore up the lines and provide more depth. Lots of good skill guys already on campus but they are young and inexperienced. 2019 can be a very special year.
Posted on 12/31/17 at 6:24 am to LongTime Tiger
imo, total season stats are indeed misleading as the first few games were pretty bad. I think the new system and the OL issues were the main causes of that.
if even a small amount of what we hear is true, Canada blew it. perhaps he just is lacking tact and challenges authority but he may have burned his bridges. i'm sorry about that because I wanted to see LSU in the second year of his system.
just to add: if we don't start throwing over the middle successfully we are not going to challenge for titles. Wisconsin, very much a running team, could not have won their game against Miami last night w/o their passing game. they even completed TD passes over the middle.
if even a small amount of what we hear is true, Canada blew it. perhaps he just is lacking tact and challenges authority but he may have burned his bridges. i'm sorry about that because I wanted to see LSU in the second year of his system.
just to add: if we don't start throwing over the middle successfully we are not going to challenge for titles. Wisconsin, very much a running team, could not have won their game against Miami last night w/o their passing game. they even completed TD passes over the middle.
Posted on 12/31/17 at 7:04 am to LSU GrandDad
I agree about Wisky. And their QB did not look good earlier in the year but evidently progressed nicely as he looked very sharp today from what I saw.
There are lots of big egos in that football ops building, as in any staff, and for this to be the only conflict that we are hearing about leads me to believe that the majority of the fault is on Canada. Especially in light of his short tenure at so many places.
I agree. I really wanted to see year 2, especially with Brennan or Narcisse at the control. I am so tired of underperforming offensive teams at LSU when I turn on the tv and see other schools with lesser talent at every position except QB lighting up the scoreboard like its New Years! I want us to be one of those teams.
There are lots of big egos in that football ops building, as in any staff, and for this to be the only conflict that we are hearing about leads me to believe that the majority of the fault is on Canada. Especially in light of his short tenure at so many places.
I agree. I really wanted to see year 2, especially with Brennan or Narcisse at the control. I am so tired of underperforming offensive teams at LSU when I turn on the tv and see other schools with lesser talent at every position except QB lighting up the scoreboard like its New Years! I want us to be one of those teams.
Posted on 12/31/17 at 7:09 am to LongTime Tiger
quote:
for this to be the only conflict that we are hearing about leads me to believe that the majority of the fault is on Canada. Especially in light of his short tenure at so many places.
I believe the majority of the fault is on O. He’s the HC. Especially in light of his horrible results at running a program in the past.
Posted on 12/31/17 at 8:29 am to Mo Jeaux
quote:
I believe the majority of the fault is on O. He’s the HC. Especially in light of his horrible results at running a program in the past.
May be but I don't believe you can blame the poor performance by OM during O's tenure on his interpersonal skills. I don't know him, and he may be a real horses arse to be around. But lots of people seem to like him. And he admitted that he tried to run that program incorrectly by having a DL coaches mentality instead of becoming a HC in his thinking. Don't know if he has fully changed or not.
But I know he can recruit. He took over a 4 win team at OM and never got them to be better than that. But when Houston Nutt came in the cupboard was stocked and Nutt won 9 games for 2 years in a row until all of Ed's boys were gone and none of the brothers wanted to play for Houston's redneck schtick. Then OM went back into hibernation until Freeze turned it around.
Maybe its all Ed's fault. But Canada's track record would indicate otherwise. You think Ed would have stayed on Pete Carroll's staff is he would have acted like an arse?
Posted on 12/31/17 at 8:35 am to LongTime Tiger
You could do the same thing for every team in the nation. After 12 games, you are who the stats say you are.
Posted on 12/31/17 at 8:39 am to LongTime Tiger
quote:
If any/all of these points would lead you to believe that improvement in these areas should have led to even 2 more completions/gm,
If every team around the nation added the same 2 more big completions per game it's still a wash.
2017 LSU O was the worst it's been in over 5 years statistically in every category except offensive turnovers.
Posted on 12/31/17 at 8:39 am to Mo Jeaux
quote:
I believe the majority of the fault is on O. He’s the HC. Especially in light of his horrible results at running a program in the past.
Of course you do and yet you’re incapable at looking at Canada’s past
Why aren’t other coaches leaving? It’s just the guy who changes jobs regularly
Posted on 12/31/17 at 8:57 am to Topwater Trout
I get a little more aggitated every day that passes with how this all played out. I just feel like LSU won't be coming out of this better on the other side.
Posted on 12/31/17 at 9:00 am to CP3forMVP
I just wish the truth would come out but I doubt it ever will
Posted on 12/31/17 at 9:13 am to LongTime Tiger
Are you honestly saying replace all our bad plays with good plays on offense and our ranking increases and think you have figured something out???.....have you applied this same logic to the rest of the teams in D1 and seen where we rank at that point
Posted on 12/31/17 at 9:36 am to LongTime Tiger
So FGs under 50 yards are automatic, and all the QBs on teams ranked ahead of us never throw a bad pass or their WRs never drop passes. Only ours do????
Posted on 12/31/17 at 8:52 pm to SamuelClemens
Not talking just about adding more completions. We had an obvious deficiency at QB and WR that Canada was given without any choice. He didn't recruit these guys and he didn't get to play the QB he desired to play.
I am only trying to analyze whether Canada's offensive scheme was a good one. To simply look at the rankings and say "he sucks and his motions and jet sweep doesn't work" is the short sighted approach taken by those who don't think about the other variables in the game. You cant throw the ball to WRs who cant get open regardless of how well the play is drawn up.
EX: Sullivan get called for Off PI against Miss St and gets DJC7's TD called back. There is no way that call should have been made. Alabama runs that same play 10 times every game and most other teams do also. So looking at the stats, we sucked against MooState yet we actually got off to a hot start that could have changed the tone of the game. We wouldn't have won because we didn't have enough DL but we might have kept it closer.
yes there are plays that change every teams games and seasons but this year was subject to more of those that any year I can remember in my many years of following LSU football. And the fact that Canada had to take so many routes out of the scheme because DE16 couldn't throw them accurately made the opponents job that much easier. If Canada had a slightly more accurate passer those two extra competitions/game would have been a given.
Several teams did hit 100% of their FGs inside of 50 yards. We only made 62% of all FGs and 69% of those <40 yds. Those really should be automatic at LSU. Auburn was 81% < 50 yds and FLA Gators were 94% accurate in all FGs including 2/2 on 50 yarders. We shouldn't expect to be as good?
I am only trying to analyze whether Canada's offensive scheme was a good one. To simply look at the rankings and say "he sucks and his motions and jet sweep doesn't work" is the short sighted approach taken by those who don't think about the other variables in the game. You cant throw the ball to WRs who cant get open regardless of how well the play is drawn up.
EX: Sullivan get called for Off PI against Miss St and gets DJC7's TD called back. There is no way that call should have been made. Alabama runs that same play 10 times every game and most other teams do also. So looking at the stats, we sucked against MooState yet we actually got off to a hot start that could have changed the tone of the game. We wouldn't have won because we didn't have enough DL but we might have kept it closer.
yes there are plays that change every teams games and seasons but this year was subject to more of those that any year I can remember in my many years of following LSU football. And the fact that Canada had to take so many routes out of the scheme because DE16 couldn't throw them accurately made the opponents job that much easier. If Canada had a slightly more accurate passer those two extra competitions/game would have been a given.
Several teams did hit 100% of their FGs inside of 50 yards. We only made 62% of all FGs and 69% of those <40 yds. Those really should be automatic at LSU. Auburn was 81% < 50 yds and FLA Gators were 94% accurate in all FGs including 2/2 on 50 yarders. We shouldn't expect to be as good?
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