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We could finish this week with a winning SEC record

Posted on 5/22/24 at 6:37 pm
Posted by Knuckle Checker
Member since Jan 2019
605 posts
Posted on 5/22/24 at 6:37 pm
If we pull it off we would be 18-17 in the SEC. Did anyone think that was possible half way through the season?

I think if by some miracle that happens we are looking at a regional in BR.

Crazier things have happened.
Posted by talmaniandevil_25
Member since Jan 2020
4275 posts
Posted on 5/22/24 at 6:39 pm to
No chance
Posted by IAM4LSU777
Sulphur
Member since Dec 2007
510 posts
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:23 pm to
Eat shite
Posted by MrWalkingMan
Republic of West Florida
Member since Aug 2010
7771 posts
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:41 pm to
quote:

I think if by some miracle that happens we are looking at a regional in BR.

No chance we host with a regular season 13-17 league record and finishing in 11th place in our conference. The conference tournaments matter but don’t matter that much.
We are probably a 3 seed at the moment but a borderline 2, and can become a solid 2 with another win or two in Hoover

In your hypothetical, we are a very high two probably getting sent to a weaker host

Posted by LSUGraduate2002
Kenner
Member since Nov 2008
247 posts
Posted on 5/22/24 at 10:03 pm to
We are NOT a 3 seed. We are a 2 seed.
Posted by jgriffith
Paradise Valley, Arizona
Member since Sep 2005
6552 posts
Posted on 5/22/24 at 10:36 pm to
I agree we’ve already earned a 2-seed.
Posted by Metaloctopus
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2018
6680 posts
Posted on 5/23/24 at 7:04 am to
quote:

I agree we’ve already earned a 2-seed.


I know we're all excited that the team is playing well, but they do not have the resume, by any metric, to be a 2 seed right now. I think they'd need to win the tournament, or at least get to the final. But we're in, and solidly now.
Posted by Zanzibaw
BR
Member since Jun 2016
2954 posts
Posted on 5/23/24 at 7:24 am to
quote:

they do not have the resume, by any metric, to be a 2 seed
.

They’ve won 16 of their last 20. 5 of the last 6 SEC series including one against the number 1 team in the country and another win against a number 1 in the tournament and an RPI of 17. They absolutely have the resume to be a 2.
Posted by Metaloctopus
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2018
6680 posts
Posted on 5/23/24 at 7:44 am to
quote:

They’ve won 16 of their last 20. 5 of the last 6 SEC series including one against the number 1 team in the country and another win against a number 1 in the tournament and an RPI of 17. They absolutely have the resume to be a 2.


I'm not the enemy here, friend. LSU's first half of the season is. And it was atrocious. You don't earn any particular seed based on a stretch of good play. That stretch is included in the totality of your overall body of work.

First, they've won 4 out of 5 series, not 5 of 6. Second, three of those series wins came against teams that are nowhere near making the NCAA tournament. And third, all of this comes on the heels of starting conference play at 3-12, and being run ruled numerous times. With all of these things being the case, they do not have the RPI, or KPI,or whatever "PI" you want to use, to bail them out. Those numbers have to be higher to overcome the 13-17 conference record. They don't just say "hey, you're in the top 20 RPI, so that means you're now a 2 seed". That isn't how that works.

All of this can change by winning this tournament, or at least making the final as I said before. But as it stands today, this is not the resume of a 2 seed. No one who crunches the numbers for these kinds of things would disagree with me, either. Nobody is saying we're a 2 seed right now. And nor should we be, yet.

I don't bring up the fact that some of the teams LSU beat were weak, to poo poo the team. They have clearly turned things around, and what we're seeing particularly in this tournament is a team that looks like it found it's identity and confidence. I'm only making observations from a practical standpoint, with my blinders off.
This post was edited on 5/23/24 at 8:00 am
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
24475 posts
Posted on 5/23/24 at 8:08 am to
quote:

I agree we’ve already earned a 2-seed.
I doubt that. The win against UGA kept us off the bubble. The win against UK solidified us as a tournament team.

Just because our RPI jumped a few points after a couple wins doesn’t mean our regular season is forgotten when the committee reviews resumes. Case studies: lsu won the SECt after finishing 14-16 in SEC in 2010. Sent to California regional. LSU missed the tournament entirely in 2011 after finishing 13-17 in season.


We’ll see when D1baseball and baseball America projections come out today. I say LSU can become a 2 seed by making it to Sunday. They are still a 3 seed as of now. The conference tournaments don’t hold that much weight, the purpose is to get your champion auto bids and for bubble teams for national seeds and last 4 in/last 4 out to sort themselves out. Not to jump from possibly missing the tournament altogether to hosting a regional. Just doesn’t work like that. I’d be happy to be proven wrong and attend another regional at the box, just not going to happen
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
24475 posts
Posted on 5/23/24 at 8:27 am to
quote:

We’ll see when D1baseball and baseball America projections come out today. I say LSU can become a 2 seed by making it to Sunday. They are still a 3 seed as of now.
Baseball America 5/23 Forecast has LSU as a 3 seed in the UCSB regional. Everyone’s always wanting to send us to Cali.

LINK
Posted by WaterLink
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2015
20404 posts
Posted on 5/23/24 at 1:31 pm to
quote:

Everyone’s always wanting to send us to Cali.


And pitting us against Oregon St.

I'd honestly feel bad for UCSB is that ends up being the regional. Good news, you get to host a regional! Bad news, you get LSU and Oregon St in your regional.
This post was edited on 5/23/24 at 1:32 pm
Posted by GeauxtigersMs36
The coast
Member since Jan 2018
12310 posts
Posted on 5/23/24 at 1:38 pm to
If uC Santa Barbra is a 16 seed, their SOS is 83 and 40 out of conference, RPI 10, record 39-12 23-4
Looking at all metrics, and the eye test they are….. more deserving?
I just used them as a reference because of talk we travel there. They also don’t play a conference tournament. 3 game series with UC riverside.
Warren Nolan.com
This post was edited on 5/23/24 at 1:41 pm
Posted by paulb52
Member since Dec 2019
7021 posts
Posted on 5/23/24 at 2:38 pm to
Regional in Ruston or Lafayette or Stillwater
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
24475 posts
Posted on 5/23/24 at 2:49 pm to
quote:

If uC Santa Barbra is a 16 seed, their SOS is 83 and 40 out of conference, RPI 10, record 39-12 23-4
Looking at all metrics, and the eye test they are….. more deserving?
are they a better team than LSU? No. Are they more deserving? Yes. Which is why they’re currently considered a borderline 1 seed and LSU is currently considered a borderline 2 seed. Same argument everyone wants to make in the FBS season. The regular season results COUNT.

They could play themselves out of a regional host this weekend if they were to lose their series but it won’t be LSU that takes their place. It’d be an Arizona or OSU out west that is a borderline 1 seed right now. Even UCI would get a regional host bid before LSU if they ended up winning the Big West. Not likely to happen though since UCSB would have to get swept this weekend.
Posted by Sissidog02
Member since Jan 2020
6651 posts
Posted on 5/23/24 at 2:52 pm to
And can guarantee you the whatever host we’re sent to, does not want us there at this very moment.
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
24475 posts
Posted on 5/23/24 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

And can guarantee you the whatever host we’re sent to, does not want us there at this very moment.
absolutely. If they don’t have cameras in their faces when the fields announced whoever the 1 seed is that lands us in their regional is going to have this reaction

Posted by Basura Blanco
Member since Dec 2011
11195 posts
Posted on 5/23/24 at 3:09 pm to
quote:

are they a better team than LSU? No. Are they more deserving? Yes. Which is why they’re currently considered a borderline 1 seed and LSU is currently considered a borderline 2 seed.


I would like to avoid a regional at their place. Undefeated at home and they have yet to lose in May overall.
Posted by Knuckle Checker
Member since Jan 2019
605 posts
Posted on 5/23/24 at 3:27 pm to
quote:

Those numbers have to be higher to overcome the 13-17 conference record. They don't just say "hey, you're in the top 20 RPI, so that means you're now a 2 seed". That isn't how that works.


The topic of this thread is that we could have a winning sec record at the end of the week. So what do you mean overcome the 13-17 record. Do these SEC games not count?
Posted by BigBinBR
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2023
8961 posts
Posted on 5/23/24 at 3:29 pm to
quote:

We could finish this week with a winning SEC record
That’s not how conference records work.
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