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re: Wait until a few road games before judging the mens Basketball team

Posted on 11/17/21 at 9:11 am to
Posted by Bert Macklin FBI
Quantico
Member since May 2013
11752 posts
Posted on 11/17/21 at 9:11 am to
quote:

Yeahright


I’ve gotta give my takes while they’re hot.
Posted by Tiger Ugly
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
17615 posts
Posted on 11/17/21 at 12:29 pm to
quote:

, LSU has gotten off to good starts before, particularly on defense, only for it to be proven as the season went along they were really just a bad defensive team


Not sure I agree with this, unless you are going back to the Trent era. I can't say I recall after 3 games in any season under WW or CJJ that was a good defensive start....maybe one good defensive game but I can never recall 3 in a row since maybe early Trent. And I'm a tPear fan so don't hate, it's just the truth.

I think it's safe to say with confidence given what we've seen of the length, athleticism and energy of this team that we won't discover in two months that this is a bad defensive team. I mean....just watch em.
Posted by BobBarker
Bompton
Member since Nov 2012
11865 posts
Posted on 11/17/21 at 12:37 pm to
quote:

in 19-20 they held their first 3 opponents to 32%, 41%, 39% shooting. They forced an average of 15 turnovers per game. And for a little bit of direct comparison, that team beat a Liberty team that went 30-4 that season. In that game LSU held Liberty to 57 points on 41% shooting. That LSU team also ended up being one of the worst defensive teams in the country among power conference programs.


This is all very true, but we gave up 79 to Bowling Green and 84 to VCU in those first three games. We even gave up 65 to lowly Nicholls State. But do you know what was really killing us in those games, why we gave up so many points despite holding our opponents to low FG%’s? Offensive rebounding and fouls. Against BGSU we have up 14 offensive and let them shoot 21 FTs, against VCU they grabbed 13 OREBS and shot 29 FTs, Nicholls came away with 11 OREBS but only shot 11 FTs. By comparison ULM had 6 OREBS and shot 17 FTs, TSU had 8 OREBS and shot 18 FTs, and Liberty had 8 OREBS and shot 17 FTs. As I’ve said before Wade’s teams don’t struggle with first shot defense or forcing turnovers. What we’ve been abysmal at is defending the glass, finishing possessions, and not fouling due to being late in rotation or other wise being lazy on D. So far through three games we appear to have a much better handle on these issues than we did in the past. Will that hold up as we play teams with better athletes? I don’t know. But I can’t help but be encouraged by what I’ve seen so far.
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
288154 posts
Posted on 11/17/21 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

I'll call them a 20 win team right now



I mean they should easily come out of OOC with 10 wins. Not exactly a murder’s row

They’d just have to roughly be a .500 team thru SEC & SECT play to hit 20 wins. Even if the SEC is a 7 or 8 bid league they should accomplish this
Posted by S
RIP Wayde
Member since Jan 2007
168606 posts
Posted on 11/17/21 at 12:51 pm to
Think we’re a typical Wade 8-9 seed team which isn’t bad when you consider the roster turnover, who returned and losing Miller

Gonna probably be a few frustrating nights but I’ll be happy to be back in the tournament and hopefully win a game or 2
Posted by SoloTiger
Member since Aug 2016
10658 posts
Posted on 11/17/21 at 12:55 pm to
Barring a major injury I think this is a Top 4 SEC team yet again for Wade. I think this team will post the 2nd best record of the Wade era and be higher than an 8/9 seed.

Just my opinion
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
288154 posts
Posted on 11/17/21 at 1:09 pm to
I think 7 seed is ceiling but I think 8/9 is the wheelhouse
Posted by GeorgeWest
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2013
14694 posts
Posted on 11/17/21 at 1:20 pm to
I enjoy reading these predictions, but, to me, it is way too early to think LSUMBB will finish top 4 or top 8 or a #8 seed or #6 seed in the NCAA. We do not have enough data to make a reliable pick.
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
288154 posts
Posted on 11/17/21 at 1:37 pm to
It’s hard to predict stuff with all the transfers & such. But you can kinda guess based on past years if you have a feeling of what LSU is after 3 games
Posted by oldcharlie8
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2012
7809 posts
Posted on 11/17/21 at 1:59 pm to
the first game looked really well. second one seemed a lot like last year in terms of rebounds.
Posted by Geaux Guy
Member since Dec 2018
6549 posts
Posted on 11/17/21 at 5:19 pm to
After that, you’re probably tell us to ‘wait for something else’, then ‘something else’…

No thanks, I’m going to go ahead and have some fun.
Posted by Metaloctopus
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2018
6691 posts
Posted on 11/18/21 at 6:22 am to
quote:

Maybe. Past history says LSU will win at least 20. But while the first three games have been very good, LSU has gotten off to good starts before, particularly on defense, only for it to be proven as the season went along they were really just a bad defensive team

in 19-20 they held their first 3 opponents to 32%, 41%, 39% shooting. They forced an average of 15 turnovers per game. And for a little bit of direct comparison, that team beat a Liberty team that went 30-4 that season. In that game LSU held Liberty to 57 points on 41% shooting. That LSU team also ended up being one of the worst defensive teams in the country among power conference programs.


There's some context missing in showing those shooting percentages. LSU got beat inside, routinely, in recent years, and as someone pointed out already, that led to a lot of free throws for the other team. And I know we live in an age where the eye test is poo pooed in favor of zero-context analytics, but if you just watch the way this team gets after the ball, you can see that what they are doing isn't fluky. Past LSU teams would have a "good" defensive game, once in a while, and myself and others would be on here talking about how the opponent was simply missing open shots, and that the score wasn't indicative of how they actually played. And, sure enough, the next game would prove that they hadn't improved, defensively.

But when I watch this team play defense, there is an effort that I haven't seen in a long time, and everything around the rim is challenged. You can't just walk in and score or get fouled, nearly every time down the court.

quote:

This year they've held their first 3 opponents to 28%, 40%, 38%, shooting, while forcing (almost) 18 turnovers per game. Better? Yes. But, IMO, not enough to definitively say right now they are a good defensive team. The early season vs. overmatched opponents can be misleading....and often times it has been.



Everything is relative. I'm not saying we're going to give up under 60 points per game on average, all year. But the fact is that we've seen this team against "over-matched" opponents many times before, and we were often giving up anywhere from 75 to 90 points. There is no such thing as over-matching anyone on defense, if you aren't engaged on that end. Your talent cannot cover up your lack of effort on that end.

quote:

I 100% hope you are right. But that was the best team (from a regular season perspective) LSU had in almost 40 years. Not only did they go 16-2 in SEC play, but a remarkable 9-0 on the ROAD in conf. play. It would be a VERY tough task to repeat that level of success.


I recognize all of this, and considering it was only 3 years ago, trust me, I remember how good that team was. I also remember that the conference was very top heavy, and didn't have much balance. So even if we don't go 16-2 in league, that doesn't mean it's not a better team, if they are as good as I believe they are, and will be by mid-season, especially. Think back to '09 when LSU went 14-2, but was an 8 seed. Comparing teams just on record is not how I judge this. It's about how well I think they can compete against the elite teams, and I put this team right up there with '18-'19, and yes, I think will end up being even better. I like our depth inside much more than that team, and I believe the improved defense will take a lot of pressure off guys from having to play out of their minds on the offensive end.
This post was edited on 11/18/21 at 6:28 am
Posted by ELLSSUU
Member since Jan 2005
7955 posts
Posted on 11/18/21 at 8:12 am to
Wait we’re not supposed to ride tidal waves of emotions before and during this stretch:

quote:

Wed, 12/29 @ AUB 21 AUB
Tue, 1/4 vs UK 13 UK
Sat, 1/8 vs TENN 17 TENN
Wed, 1/12 @ FLA 24 FLA
Sat, 1/15 vs ARK 16 ARK
Wed, 1/19 @ ALA 14 ALA
Sat, 1/22 @ TENN 17 TENN



Absolutely brutal stretch of SEC games for a month. Who in the SEC scheduling office did the General piss off.
This post was edited on 11/18/21 at 8:13 am
Posted by Bert Macklin FBI
Quantico
Member since May 2013
11752 posts
Posted on 11/18/21 at 9:00 am to
quote:

Who in the SEC scheduling office did the General piss off.



Probably all of them?
Posted by hookfin
Member since Sep 2021
109 posts
Posted on 11/18/21 at 9:05 am to
Might be the dumbest post on the Rant. Congrats
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