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Posted on 9/22/17 at 3:31 pm to jyoung1
I don't think many posting in this thread understand how sports betting works and why spreads are what they are.
Posted on 9/22/17 at 3:33 pm to jyoung1
1) It is very, very wrong to say "Vegas has us favored in every game, they think we'll go 12-0!" You can gauge implied win probabilities from moneylines. LSU being a 7 point favorite against Moo U doesn't count as a full implied win, the same as being a 13 point dog against Bammer doesn't count as a full implied loss.
2) A much better gauge is a team's season win total, which was 9/9.5 this year for LSU, 9.5/10 the last.
3) Saying "Vegas isn't a projection, they simply try to predict what the public will bet" is a MYTH. They may shade a line a bit one way or the other due to public sentiment, but they absolutely start with a power ranking/projection and adjust only if they have to. Taking even money on both sides at one number is easy to talk about, but very hard to do in practice.
2) A much better gauge is a team's season win total, which was 9/9.5 this year for LSU, 9.5/10 the last.
3) Saying "Vegas isn't a projection, they simply try to predict what the public will bet" is a MYTH. They may shade a line a bit one way or the other due to public sentiment, but they absolutely start with a power ranking/projection and adjust only if they have to. Taking even money on both sides at one number is easy to talk about, but very hard to do in practice.
Posted on 9/22/17 at 3:35 pm to DallasTiger45
quote:Not really
Saying "Vegas isn't a projection, they simply try to predict what the public will bet" is a MYTH.
Posted on 9/22/17 at 3:39 pm to jyoung1
quote:
Guess Vegas hasn't read the rant.
Lines out for:
@Florida (LSU -3.5)
Auburn (LSU -5)
@BAMA (Bama -13.5)
@Tenn (LSU -6.5)
A&M (LSU -12.5
I don't see lines for Ole Miss & Ark, but I assume LSU would be favored in those as well.
That's not how spreads work.
For example, LSU being the favorite by 3.5 over Florida means that the book thinks LSU has a 60.63% chance of winning that game.
Percent chance of winning the other games based on the spreads:
Auburn - 64.14%
Alabama - 16.5%
Tennessee - 67.71%
A&M - 82.56%
Add those % together and you'll see that the current spreads indicate Vegas thinks we will win 2.92 out of those 5 games--they think we'll go 3-2.
Convert spread to %
This post was edited on 9/22/17 at 3:41 pm
Posted on 9/22/17 at 3:44 pm to tigercross
Why not have a TD poll where posters can pick what they think the record will be at the end of the season.
Posted on 9/22/17 at 3:46 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Individual game lines had us at 12-0 last year.
No. The link you provided shows LSU as a favorite in 8 games, but converting the spread to % shows that Vegas was predicting 5.7 wins in those 8 games. So, even if LSU went 4-0 in the 4 games where they didn't provide a line, they were still predicting a 9-3 or 10-2 regular season.
Posted on 9/22/17 at 3:47 pm to tigercross
quote:Follow the thread please
No. The link you provided shows LSU as a favorite in 8 games, but converting the spread to % shows that Vegas was predicting 5.7 wins in those 8 games. So, even if LSU went 4-0 in the 4 games where they didn't provide a line, they were still predicting a 9-3 or 10-2 regular season.
I understand this, the OP said we are going 10-2 based on individual game lines. Indivual game lines had us at 12-0 last year(jack state, USA, Mizzou, and Southern were the games not listed at the time, but were all heavy favorites once listed )
This post was edited on 9/22/17 at 3:50 pm
Posted on 9/22/17 at 3:56 pm to jyoung1
I'll take that right now
Posted on 9/22/17 at 4:20 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Not really
Repeating an ignorant take does not make it true.
Posted on 9/22/17 at 4:33 pm to Dawgfan128
The two most secure jobs in the world are a Vegas Odds Maker and a weatherman. It doesn't matter if you're wrong or not, it's just basically a calculated guess.
Posted on 9/22/17 at 4:57 pm to jyoung1
Vegas is drunk
Posted on 9/22/17 at 5:13 pm to jyoung1
Lol, this team isn't going 10-2
Posted on 9/22/17 at 6:05 pm to lsupride87
They are generally wrong over half the time. But they have a ballpark and basis for their predictions.
Posted on 9/22/17 at 7:11 pm to jyoung1
Ok hotshot
Posted on 9/22/17 at 10:21 pm to jyoung1
Those lines are fluid. It'll be LSU (+14) @ Florida the week of the Gainesville trip.
Posted on 9/22/17 at 10:53 pm to jyoung1
That's not what they are saying at all.
Posted on 9/22/17 at 10:54 pm to Dawgfan128
quote:
They are generally wrong over half the time. But they have a ballpark and basis for their predictions.
They post a number that will generate money on both sides so they collect the juice. They hate being exposed.
Posted on 9/22/17 at 10:55 pm to tigerborderjumper
quote:
The two most secure jobs in the world are a Vegas Odds Maker and a weatherman. It doesn't matter if you're wrong or not, it's just basically a calculated guess.
So far from truth. It's actually a job you have to be right on or you are fired. Being right means not allowing your book to be exposed.
Posted on 9/22/17 at 10:57 pm to tigercross
They aren't posting lines to say who wins.
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