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re: Vegas Insider Predictions For LSU Football
Posted on 5/8/18 at 2:13 pm to PinevilleTiger
Posted on 5/8/18 at 2:13 pm to PinevilleTiger
quote:
Why, year end and year out, is our schedule murderers row, while Bama, Georgia, Auburn, ect have cupcake schedules? This has to change!!
Real winners welcome adversity and kick it right in the dick. If we get destroyed we have noone to blame but ourselves. If we play 4 quarters and play with grit and heart, we can beat any team on our schedule. Head up baws! We got this!
0
Posted on 5/8/18 at 2:24 pm to LSUInTheBR
quote:
Nov. 3 vs. Alabama
so both will be well prepared for this one.
Or at least one of the teams will be.
Posted on 5/8/18 at 2:26 pm to atltiger6487
quote:
Vegas actually doesn't care which side you bet, as long as they get another guy to bet the opposite side. Vegas isn't in the business of picking winners - they just set, and then adjust, the lines/odds to get equal money on both sides and they pocket the vig.
No offense but you don’t know what you are talking about. This is a myth that really needs to die
This post was edited on 5/8/18 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 5/8/18 at 3:02 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
quote:
Vegas actually doesn't care which side you bet, as long as they get another guy to bet the opposite side. Vegas isn't in the business of picking winners - they just set, and then adjust, the lines/odds to get equal money on both sides and they pocket the vig.
quote:nope - Vegas doesn't make their money by picking winners. It's all math.
No offense but you don’t know what you are talking about. This is a myth that really needs to die
Posted on 5/8/18 at 3:02 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
No offense but you don’t know what you are talking about. This is a myth that really needs to die
Love these responses. Refute with a hint of condescension, yet without providing further information.
Edit: Thanks for adding insight. I certainly don't know how it works.
This post was edited on 5/8/18 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 5/8/18 at 3:16 pm to atltiger6487
quote:
nope - Vegas doesn't make their money by picking winners. It's all math
Sorry that’s not the way it works. Book managers will tell you they could not stay open if all they got was 10%. Basic business logic should tell you no business could survive on that, you’re talking about 10% on just bets, that’s before they pay a light bill or employee salary. But don’t take my word for it, just look at the site referenced in the thread Vegas Insider for tonight’s NBA games 75% of the bet are on Houston -12 and 79% over 208.5 76% on Golden State -11.5 and 60% on over 229.
Here is an article about how they lost on the Super Bowl this year
LINK if you google Vegas losing on football you will find articles over the years of weekends or even entire seasons the books have lost. If you also stopped to think about it, the vast majority of bets are placed less than an hour before the start of the game, again logic should dictate that it’s simply not possible to adjust the line that fast
Posted on 5/8/18 at 3:27 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:old data (from 2009), but a good perspective. Casino book survive on about a 5% win rate.
Sorry that’s not the way it works. Book managers will tell you they could not stay open if all they got was 10%. Basic business logic should tell you no business could survive on that, you’re talking about 10% on just bets, that’s before they pay a light bill or employee salary.
Below are the numbers that Las Vegas casinos made in revenue from sports betting in 2009:
Overall
Total Amount Bet – $2.4 Billion
Total Casino Win (revenue) – $136.3 Million
Win Percentage (percent of money played that casino kept) – 5.31%
This post was edited on 5/8/18 at 3:28 pm
Posted on 5/8/18 at 3:29 pm to SOL
quote:
Vegas Insider Predictions For LSU Football we will win 9
Miami (neutral - it will favor the Canes National Liberal Media including close officiating calls), Auburn (Jordan Hare Stadium), Florida (Ben Hill Griffin Stadium . Gainesville, Florida), Georgia (#1 ranking 2017), Ole Miss (always fun), Alabama (defending national champs),
Posted on 5/8/18 at 3:36 pm to atltiger6487
quote:
Below are the numbers that Las Vegas casinos made in revenue from sports betting in 2009:
Revenue doesn’t equal profits and I’d be willing to bet (pun intended) that they would not get to 5% of bets if literally every game was 50-50
LINK
quote:
It got so bad that on Nov. 4, when a "perfect storm" of losses cost one book over a million dollars, MGM Resorts "was forced to summon emergency stashes of cash to pay off its losses," Pugmire reports. So what happened? Basically, people like to bet on favorites, and a disproportionate number of favorites won this year
Posted on 5/8/18 at 3:43 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:If literally every game had equal money bet on each side, casinos would pocket exactly 10%. I don't understand your argument. ETA: actually, since the winner doesn't pay the vig, then the casino would net 5% on a bet, where bettor A bet $11 to win $10 on the favorite, and bettor B bet the same on the dog. So the casino nets $1 on $22 total bet - a little less than 5%.
Revenue doesn’t equal profits and I’d be willing to bet (pun intended) that they would not get to 5% of bets if literally every game was 50-50
The numbers from my post (copied below) are quite clear. Bettors bet $2.4B. Casinos kept $136M of that, which is 5.31% of the total amount bet. About half of the 10% vig.
Total Amount Bet – $2.4 Billion
Total Casino Win (revenue) – $136.3 Million
Win Percentage (percent of money played that casino kept) – 5.31%
This post was edited on 5/8/18 at 3:51 pm
Posted on 5/8/18 at 3:52 pm to LSUInTheBR
That’s about right for this clown show driving the ship.
Posted on 5/8/18 at 3:55 pm to atltiger6487
Right that’s just the bets, what about the other costs of running the book? Also that in no way shows they get 50-50 bets on all or even most games. Just that over the season they won 5%. There are other bets like parlays, teasers and futures that can pay substantially more than the amount bet, so if all they were getting on every game was 10% they’d be losing their arse.
I gave you the link to Vegas Insider and it clearly shows you that games are almost never 50-50 and in fact usually heavily titled to one side, typically the favorite and the over. Check it during football season when there are 40+ college games and up to 16 NFL games and you will see the same thing. Look at the articles I linked that say Vegas lost money on a game, weekend and even entire season
they don’t get 50-50 so yes they have to root.
I gave you the link to Vegas Insider and it clearly shows you that games are almost never 50-50 and in fact usually heavily titled to one side, typically the favorite and the over. Check it during football season when there are 40+ college games and up to 16 NFL games and you will see the same thing. Look at the articles I linked that say Vegas lost money on a game, weekend and even entire season
they don’t get 50-50 so yes they have to root. This post was edited on 5/8/18 at 4:18 pm
Posted on 5/8/18 at 4:02 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:I get that, but they TRY to get to 50-50, that was my overall point. They don't try to get to 75-25 and win the short side - that's a recipe for disaster.
Look at the articles I linked that say Vegas lost money on a game, weekend and even entire season they don’t get 50-50 so yes they have to root.
Now of course sometimes it happens. But over a long enough time period, it probably mostly balances out. Sometimes the heavy side wins and the casino loses, sometimes the heavy loses and the casino wins big. But it balances out over time.
But my point was they don't TRY for that. They try for 50-50.
And they clearly don't profit more than the vig - again, over the long haul. On a certain day, week, or month - maybe so. But not over the long term.
My numbers prove that. I'm done arguing, I'll give you the last word.
Posted on 5/8/18 at 4:13 pm to GusMcRae
Awesome job Gus..... glad you woke up and decided to be the grammar police.
Posted on 5/8/18 at 4:17 pm to atltiger6487
And my point is that’s a myth that they try for 50-50. multiple sports book managers and bookies have said 50-50 is not possible and according to them wouldn’t be profitable anyway.
75-25 seems like a lot (I’ve seen 90-10) but it depends on how much action they have on the game, IIRC the NFL is around 75% of sports betting those won’t usually be so those games probably won’t be son extreme as 75-25 still aren’t 50-50. 55–45 - 60-40 is probably closer to it
75-25 seems like a lot (I’ve seen 90-10) but it depends on how much action they have on the game, IIRC the NFL is around 75% of sports betting those won’t usually be so those games probably won’t be son extreme as 75-25 still aren’t 50-50. 55–45 - 60-40 is probably closer to it
This post was edited on 5/8/18 at 4:24 pm
Posted on 5/8/18 at 7:44 pm to LSUInTheBR
Defense rules and Aranda has big contract incentives.......
Defense alone will win more than 4 games for us......100%
Defense alone will win more than 4 games for us......100%
Posted on 5/8/18 at 8:58 pm to theSaltwaterGuide
I will stay woke.
I’m also available to help on then (marks time) and than (compares 2 things), as well as they’re (they are), their (belongs to), and there (a place).
...not so good on lay/lie;
I’m also available to help on then (marks time) and than (compares 2 things), as well as they’re (they are), their (belongs to), and there (a place).
...not so good on lay/lie;
Posted on 5/8/18 at 9:10 pm to GusMcRae
quote:Its/It's always/allwayz good/gute (Deutschland) to have a smartass in the room. Especially a room who/dat can't win games in any sport.
Vegas Insider Predictions For LSU FootballI will stay woke. I’m also available to help on then (marks time) and than (compares 2 things), as well as they’re (they are), their (belongs to), and there (a place). ...not so good on lay/lie;
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