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re: "Tough to beat a team twice"
Posted on 12/21/11 at 11:17 am to bama1989
Posted on 12/21/11 at 11:17 am to bama1989
quote:
Then why all the talk about not wanting to play Bama
From coaches and players? Feel free to link any quotes you can find from an LSU coach or player saying they don't want to play Alabama again.
What fans say/think doesn't matter they aren't playing.
quote:
That just fuels my theory. You don't want to play us again. Admit it. Oh shite. Guess what? You have to whether you want to or not.
Your "theory" is fueled by your own delusion and is summed up by this classical strawman argument.
This post was edited on 12/21/11 at 11:25 am
0
Posted on 12/21/11 at 11:18 am to bama1989
quote:
My thesis is that the winner of a close match is at a psychological disadvantage to the loser. A big winner is different. I think a big winner owns the loser but you won in OT so that's out. But the loser of a close match realizes if he worked just a little harder he would have won. The winner realizes how damn close it was to them losing and will be playing the next game not to lose.
Bama delusion at its finest. So what you're saying, doctor, is that LSU is at a psychological disadvantage because we WON the first game?
My new sig quote..
This post was edited on 12/21/11 at 11:25 am
Posted on 12/21/11 at 11:24 am to Chimlim
quote:
Bama delusion at its finest. So what you're saying, doctor, is that LSU is at a psychological disadvantage because we WON the first game?
But we really didn't win, remember.
Gosh I'm so confused now.
Posted on 12/21/11 at 11:27 am to EZE Tiger Fan
That's right. Well since Bama really won the first game, that would mean LSU has the psychological advantage since we lost a close game.
Posted on 12/21/11 at 11:35 am to bama1989
quote:what position do you play again??
You don't want to play us again.
Posted on 12/21/11 at 11:36 am to Chimlim
quote:
"My thesis is that the winner of a close match is at a psychological disadvantage to the loser" bama1989
Posted on 12/21/11 at 11:38 am to bama1989
quote:
Then why all the talk about not wanting to play Bama? That just fuels my theory. You don't want to play us again. Admit it. Oh shite. Guess what? You have to whether you want to or not.
What talk? I haven't heard a single Tiger fan say that. It's going to be a real pleasure to beat Bama twice. We're looking forward to that!
Posted on 12/21/11 at 11:39 am to Roux-Roux
If you assume the results of the first game in a rematch scenario provide some evidence of who's the better team (yes, I acknowledge in Bamaland, no losses by Alabama are EVER evidence that the other team was better), it would stand to reason statistically that the rematch game would, on-balance, provide the same results more often than not.
You simply can't look at the results of the first game like you look at the results of a coin toss - at least, statistically speaking.
You simply can't look at the results of the first game like you look at the results of a coin toss - at least, statistically speaking.
This post was edited on 12/21/11 at 11:41 am
Posted on 12/21/11 at 11:39 am to EZE Tiger Fan
quote:
But we really didn't win, remember.
Gosh I'm so confused now.
You must be an old fart like me. I'm also easily confused. It wasn't that long ago where the rules didn't allow OT. If 9/5/11 had been played in 1975, there wouldn't have been a winner.
I'm on record as of 11/6 I didn't think there should be a rematch, but that's what happened and no bellyaching or handwringing will change that. Unless Bama magnanimously forfeits the BCSNCG, we'll be playing again.
I'm so looking forward to this game. I think if I have a heart attack in the 1st qtr, I can probably wait until the game's over before I'd call an ambulance.
Posted on 12/21/11 at 11:43 am to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
(yes, I acknowledge in Bamaland, no losses by Alabama are EVER evidence that the other team was better)
That's totally understandable. When Bama whupped UF 31-3, Brandon Spikes said UF was still the better team. Isn't that human nature?
Posted on 12/21/11 at 11:54 am to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
it would stand to reason statistically that the rematch game would, on-balance, provide the same results more often than not
It would depend on the teams.
Would you expect 2007 Kentucky to beat LSU more often on balance?
Posted on 12/21/11 at 11:58 am to H-Town Tiger
quote:
It would depend on the teams.
Would you expect 2007 Kentucky to beat LSU more often on balance?
No, which is why I'm talking generally in a statistical manner. That's an outlier, which you will expect to see. I don't think you can assume, though, that the Nov 5 Bama game was an outlier, at least at this point, no matter how much Bama fans want to assume it is.
Posted on 12/21/11 at 12:00 pm to Roux-Roux
quote:
ESPN interviewed Saban yesterday and mentioned that its tough for a team to beat a team twice in a season.
Gonna be even tougher for Lil' Nicky when he loses to the same team twice in a season.
Posted on 12/21/11 at 12:00 pm to Roux-Roux
quote:
"Tough to beat a team twice"
Then why does the winner of the first game win the rematch approximately 62% of the time?
Posted on 12/21/11 at 12:06 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
You simply can't look at the results of the first game like you look at the results of a coin toss - at least, statistically speaking.
Correct, unless you factor in that Les Miles is going to lay the coin down on heads and ask Chavis to step on Sabans fingers everytime he reaches to flip it over.
Posted on 12/21/11 at 12:15 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
I don't think you can assume, though, that the Nov 5 Bama game was an outlier, at least at this point
Its not an outlier, but the only thing it proves is that LSU can beat Alabama. Ironically the Bamatard thinks that gives them a pyscological advantage
Posted on 12/21/11 at 12:18 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
but the only thing it proves is that LSU can beat Alabama.
Which, whether Bama fans want to admit it or not, is statistically relevant with regard to a rematch.
I can admit it may not be as relevant as some LSU fans want to think it is, but it's still relevant, nevertheless.
If you're going to say the first game was nothing but a coin toss, you can't say the results of the second game would be any more meaningful.
Posted on 12/21/11 at 12:27 pm to The312
quote:
Then why does the winner of the first game win the rematch approximately 62% of the time?
Because the better team usually wins regardless of how many times the teams play each other. Some of the Bama fans and an LSU fan or two are making two common mistakes in thinking that the loser has an advantage in a rematch.
1) It first assumes that the teams are even. This is generally a false assumption. As stated above, the better team usually wins. Therefore, the team that won the first game is generally the better team. Sorry, you just have to deal with that, Gumps.
2) This is the real kicker. Don't fall for the gambler's fallacy. Even if the teams are exactly even the odds would be the same every time they faced off. No matter how many times you flop a coin, the odds are always 50/50 that it will be heads or tails. Now, if you record the results, over time the percentages of heads to tail will fall towards the median. However, that does not mean that the odds somehow change each coin flip. That is the gamblers fallacy ("I'm due to hit the next time, because I missed the last 3, 4, 5, etc. times"), a mind game that keeps the casinos hands in your wallets.
So, even if you assume that LSU and Bama are exacly even in talent, skill, etc., the odds are still no better or worse than 50/50 for either team. Now, if you figure that the best team usually wins and you throw in change of venue (BDS to the Superdome), then it would seem that LSU still has an advantage.
This post was edited on 12/21/11 at 12:29 pm
Posted on 12/21/11 at 12:30 pm to gar90
quote:
the good news is we didnt win the first game. we just scored more points.
Posted on 12/21/11 at 12:30 pm to gar90
quote:
the good news is we didnt win the first game. we just scored more points.
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