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Posted on 3/25/15 at 5:33 pm to bbap
Read Ye olde green wave forum and I laughed!
Posted on 3/26/15 at 6:46 am to Penrod
quote:
Taking an ordinary HR out is not counterintuitive. BABIP is meant to spot luck, bad or good
Eh. Not really.
Posted on 3/26/15 at 6:49 am to bbap
I always sorta took it as a way to determine if a player was due to either break out or go into a slump
Posted on 3/26/15 at 12:27 pm to bbap
quote:
Eh. Not really.
Maybe luck isn't the right word exactly, but that's basically it.
This post was edited on 3/26/15 at 12:27 pm
Posted on 3/26/15 at 12:32 pm to MOT
Is it tomorrow night yet?
Posted on 3/26/15 at 12:39 pm to ell_13
It is cloudy and dark outside and I haven't seen a weather thread so....no.
Posted on 3/26/15 at 5:06 pm to MOT
No luck is pretty marginal in BABIP. Because luck usually evens out over the course of time. It measures how well players are squaring up balls. Like line drive rates.
Posted on 3/26/15 at 6:22 pm to bbap
quote:Exactly, that is the entire basis of the metric. It is predictive in nature in that it identifies players that may be due for regression one way or the other. That's why homeruns and strikeouts aren't included, none of the player's homeruns to whatever point in time have resulted in outs and none of the strikeouts in hits.
No luck is pretty marginal in BABIP. Because luck usually evens out over the course of time.
quote:Not really, otherwise we're saying someone like Chinea is squaring up more than Bregman.
It measures how well players are squaring up balls. Like line drive rates.
Of course it is true that better hitters with higher line drive rates will sustain a higher babip over time. But that basic logic is used to better predict what is likely to happen going forward, not measure who is better at any point in time.
Posted on 3/26/15 at 6:26 pm to MOT
quote:
Not really, otherwise we're saying someone like Chinea is squaring up more than Bregman.
No we aren't because bregman has had bad luck. BABIP doesn't really work over 25 games. I like looking at it anyway. Bregs luck just hasn't evened out yet.
Posted on 3/26/15 at 7:15 pm to bbap
quote:
No we aren't because bregman has had bad luck. BABIP doesn't really work over 25 games. I like looking at it anyway. Bregs luck just hasn't evened out yet.
That's exactly what it's for.
You're using it in an indicative way, or using it as a confirmation, when it is meant to be used in a predictive way by identifying the bad luck you just mentioned Bregman has had.
It was like predicting Rhymes' drop at the end of 2012. At one point when he was still flirting with .500 well into the season his babip was something absurd, like over .550. While he made good contact and had a great season you knew luck was playing a part and there was no way it would be sustained.
Posted on 3/26/15 at 7:20 pm to MOT
Naw like I said luck evens out in BABIP. Over time it's not much of a factor. But excluding home runs is silly. Why I prefer BACON.
Posted on 3/26/15 at 9:10 pm to bbap
quote:
But excluding home runs is silly.
Not if you're using it for the intended purpose, which is all the other poster was originally saying. It makes perfect sense to exclude both HRs and Ks. I think the only slight issue is it doesn't account for situational hitting...hitting behind runners, RBI groundouts, and sac flies (though that one could easily be fixed).
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