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Standings, SECT, and NCAAT outlook
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:33 am
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:33 am
Here is the data I have compiled, what the standings mean for LSU, and my thoughts on the NCAAT outlook.
First, the SECT participants are now set, all that is left is seeding. I have not looked at the tiebreaker for Alabama and Vanderbilt. I know Florida owns the tiebreaker with LSU and right now LSU owns the tiebreaker with Ole Miss after 1 game. With that, here is the overall standings for the SECT
LSU is poised to jump Florida and maybe Vanderbilt in RPI if both teams lose and LSU wins today.
With 2 games left, here are the matchups.
Missouri(8-20) plays @Mississippi State(16-12)
LSU Leads Missouri by 3 games, Mizzou is out of the SECT, it probably benefits LSU for Moo State to win out and bump up their RPI though I am not sure how much they would go up or how much benefit LSU gets from that.
Ole Miss(11-17) plays @LSU(11-17)
LSU is Tied with Ole Miss, LSU needs to sweep to give it the best shot at the NCAAT. Win today and LSU sets themselves to be at least the 11th seed in the SECT with the tiebreaker over Ole Miss. There is also a chance that Ole Miss ends up with an overall losing record which would eliminate them from NCAAT consideration.
Alabama(12-16) plays @Auburn(7-21)
LSU Trails Alabama by 1 game, If Auburn Sweeps Alabama (unlikely) and LSU Sweeps Ole Miss then LSU would be the 10th seed in the SECT.
Florida(11-17) plays @Georgia(17-11)
LSU is Tied with Florida, If LSU can win one more game than Florida the rest of this weekend they will end ahead of Florida in the SECT seeding assuring at least the 10th seed. There is also a chance that Florida ends up with an overall losing record which would eliminate them from NCAAT consideration.
Vanderbilt(12-16) plays @Kentucky(21-7)
LSU Trails Vanderbilt by 1 game, As with Alabama, it requires both series to be a sweep for LSU to overtake Vanderbilt and LSU to get a 10th seed minimum
South Carolina(13-15) plays @Tennessee(20-8)
LSU Trails South Carolina by 2 games, LSU ends up tied with them at best and I suspect the tiebreaker would work in their favor so LSU is best served with Tennessee winning out to help their RPI thereby helping LSU.
To summarize, LSU can theoretically end up as an 8th seed in the SECT, though I think that is unlikely. For that to happen, LSU needs to sweep Ole Miss, Kentucky needs to sweep Vandy, Auburn needs to sweep Alabama, and Florida needs to lose one more game to Georgia. That is a lot to expect. There is a reasonable chance LSU could end up 10th, however.
The NCAA Tournament Is a bit more of a pickle. But I think if LSU sweeps, some dominoes fall into place for an at-large bid. If LSU wins this series and wins 2 games in the SECT I think they will almost certainly get an at-large bid. If they sweep and win 1, I'm even more certain.
Other than the data, these are just my opinions and If I have any of the data wrong, please tell me, I frequently make mistakes. Sorry for all the words
First, the SECT participants are now set, all that is left is seeding. I have not looked at the tiebreaker for Alabama and Vanderbilt. I know Florida owns the tiebreaker with LSU and right now LSU owns the tiebreaker with Ole Miss after 1 game. With that, here is the overall standings for the SECT
LSU is poised to jump Florida and maybe Vanderbilt in RPI if both teams lose and LSU wins today.
With 2 games left, here are the matchups.
Missouri(8-20) plays @Mississippi State(16-12)
LSU Leads Missouri by 3 games, Mizzou is out of the SECT, it probably benefits LSU for Moo State to win out and bump up their RPI though I am not sure how much they would go up or how much benefit LSU gets from that.
Ole Miss(11-17) plays @LSU(11-17)
LSU is Tied with Ole Miss, LSU needs to sweep to give it the best shot at the NCAAT. Win today and LSU sets themselves to be at least the 11th seed in the SECT with the tiebreaker over Ole Miss. There is also a chance that Ole Miss ends up with an overall losing record which would eliminate them from NCAAT consideration.
Alabama(12-16) plays @Auburn(7-21)
LSU Trails Alabama by 1 game, If Auburn Sweeps Alabama (unlikely) and LSU Sweeps Ole Miss then LSU would be the 10th seed in the SECT.
Florida(11-17) plays @Georgia(17-11)
LSU is Tied with Florida, If LSU can win one more game than Florida the rest of this weekend they will end ahead of Florida in the SECT seeding assuring at least the 10th seed. There is also a chance that Florida ends up with an overall losing record which would eliminate them from NCAAT consideration.
Vanderbilt(12-16) plays @Kentucky(21-7)
LSU Trails Vanderbilt by 1 game, As with Alabama, it requires both series to be a sweep for LSU to overtake Vanderbilt and LSU to get a 10th seed minimum
South Carolina(13-15) plays @Tennessee(20-8)
LSU Trails South Carolina by 2 games, LSU ends up tied with them at best and I suspect the tiebreaker would work in their favor so LSU is best served with Tennessee winning out to help their RPI thereby helping LSU.
To summarize, LSU can theoretically end up as an 8th seed in the SECT, though I think that is unlikely. For that to happen, LSU needs to sweep Ole Miss, Kentucky needs to sweep Vandy, Auburn needs to sweep Alabama, and Florida needs to lose one more game to Georgia. That is a lot to expect. There is a reasonable chance LSU could end up 10th, however.
The NCAA Tournament Is a bit more of a pickle. But I think if LSU sweeps, some dominoes fall into place for an at-large bid. If LSU wins this series and wins 2 games in the SECT I think they will almost certainly get an at-large bid. If they sweep and win 1, I'm even more certain.
Other than the data, these are just my opinions and If I have any of the data wrong, please tell me, I frequently make mistakes. Sorry for all the words
5
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:34 am to mdomingue
In other words. WE COMIN
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:46 am to mdomingue
Correct me if I am wrong, but it's not just a losing record that keeps you out of being an at-large bid, you have to be AT LEAST one game over .500. Or that is what I heard last night on SEC now
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:52 am to tigerbait1.6
quote:
Correct me if I am wrong, but it's not just a losing record that keeps you out of being an at-large bid, you have to be AT LEAST one game over .500. Or that is what I heard last night on SEC now
If you're referring to SEC record, then you're wrong. Many 13-15 win SEC teams have gotten an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:54 am to PTLSU
quote:
If you're referring to SEC record, then you're wrong. Many 13-15 win SEC teams have gotten an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
He’s referring to overall record requirement to qualify as an at large
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:55 am to PTLSU
He's referring to overall record. And I don't know the answer.
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:55 am to tigerbait1.6
I believe as long as a team is .500 they can qualify
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:55 am to Mats86
quote:
He’s referring to overall record requirement to qualify as an at large
Got it. My mistake. The only below .500 teams I've ever seen in the NCAA Tournament were automatic qualifiers by winning their conference tourney,
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 10:56 am
Posted on 5/17/24 at 11:02 am to mdomingue
All I care about is LSU making the NCAA tournament. I simply look at it as we need to sweep Ole Miss and Georgia needs to win one more over Florida. I think the SEC gets at least 10 teams in this year and that would make LSU one of the top 10.
Posted on 5/17/24 at 11:03 am to mdomingue
We lose a game against Ole Miss and end up 12-18, I think we are a lock to be left out, unless of course we win Hoover.
Sweep and end up 13-17, I think we end up on the good side of that 38 percent chance. Somebody has got to say “They’re the defending national champs. We have to sneak them in.”
Still, even at 13-17, I think we need to approach Hoover with the mindset that we need to win at least a couple.
Sweep and end up 13-17, I think we end up on the good side of that 38 percent chance. Somebody has got to say “They’re the defending national champs. We have to sneak them in.”
Still, even at 13-17, I think we need to approach Hoover with the mindset that we need to win at least a couple.
Posted on 5/17/24 at 11:23 am to tigerbait1.6
quote:
Correct me if I am wrong, but it's not just a losing record that keeps you out of being an at-large bid, you have to be AT LEAST one game over .500. Or that is what I heard last night on SEC now
I think that is right, they have to have a winning record. But the games in the SECT can count toward that.
Posted on 5/17/24 at 11:37 am to timlan2057
Honestly, I wouldn’t consider it sneaking in. The other bubble teams are terrible. At some point the selection should include most if not all of the SEC like softball this season. ACC and SEC are the best teams.
Posted on 5/17/24 at 11:39 am to mdomingue
Selection committees are lazy. They’ll take the top 10 seeds in the SECT and not look at any factor outside of that.
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