re: Sporting News: Edward Jim Orgeron Jr. is the 15th best coach in America

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It is clearly stated on the website

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No, it doesn't.

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No, it doesn't.

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The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.) Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.

S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.

Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.

Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).

Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)

Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

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It also provides links to full articles explaining each 5 components.

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It also provides links to full articles explaining each 5 components.

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This is correct, but there's no specific information on how adjusted ratings are reached. Only general information.

There is so much weighting going on that it's impossible to determine accuracy, except for predictive results which aren't that great.

Keep in mind, the S&P is meant to be predictive.

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posting til 3 am again tonight

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I get up at 3 am.

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What are they predicting about historical data?

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They're constantly revising it.

Just like their latest formula change which is weighted toward certain programs.

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VOX MEDIA

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Garbage clickbait.

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Oh well then you’ll be furious to find out who the parent company of SBNation is.

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Clickbait

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The 8 people you’ll meet at a Cowboys-Bills Thanksgiving

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With Les Miles, Kansas will now lose in wackier fashion!

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The 5 best undrafted free agents from the 2019 class

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The Warriors hid a Serbian teenager in Santa Cruz for a year, and then drafted him

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There is so much weighting going on that it's impossible to determine accuracy, except for predictive results which aren't that great.

Keep in mind, the S&P is meant to be predictive.

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It’s meant to be a detailed, objective measurement of team strength. Using it as a predictive tool is an application.

The Vegas hit rate is based on every single FBS game per season. Meaning he will count a win or loss even when the S&P projection and the spread are essentially in line. He will take it all the way down to a fraction of a point to show which side S&P would select. Meaning if the line is 6 and the S&P projection is a difference of 6.18, he would note the favorite as the S&P pick for record keeping purposes.

However, most logical handicappers would know there is no value if their line is that close to the actual spread, and would avoid the game altogether. Objective, analytical bettors may take that info and begin to measure at what point the variance returns much higher hit rates and value. One or two point differences may not really matter one way or the other, but what’s the percentage when the variance hits larger numbers?

By the way, what’s the hit rate when using stat rankings to make selections?

Team : Alabama Conference : SEC Recruiting impact : 1 Returning production : 1 Weighted 5-year : 1 Proj. S&P+ : 35.4
Rk : 2 Team : Georgia Conference : SEC Recruiting impact : 2 Returning production : 2 Weighted 5-year : 7 Proj. S&P+ : 30.7
Rk : 3 Team : Clemson Conference : ACC Recruiting impact : 10 Returning production : 3 Weighted 5-year : 3 Proj. S&P+ : 29.9
Rk : 4 Team : LSU Conference : SEC Recruiting impact : 3 Returning production : 4 Weighted 5-year : 6 Proj. S&P+ : 25.8
Rk : 5 Team : Oklahoma Conference : Big 12 Recruiting impact : 4 Returning production : 6 Weighted 5-year : 5 Proj. S&P+ : 25.0
Rk : 6 Team : Florida Conference : SEC Recruiting impact : 6 Returning production : 5 Weighted 5-year : 23 Proj. S&P+ : 24.6
Rk : 7 Team : Ohio State Conference : Big Ten Recruiting impact : 5 Returning production : 7 Weighted 5-year : 2 Proj. S&P+ : 24.3
Rk : 8 Team : Auburn Conference : SEC Recruiting impact : 7 Returning production : 9 Weighted 5-year : 9 Proj. S&P+ : 22.6
Rk : 9 Team : Michigan Conference : Big Ten Recruiting impact : 12 Returning production : 11 Weighted 5-year : 12 Proj. S&P+ : 21.6
Rk : 10 Team : Mississippi State Conference : SEC Recruiting impact : 22 Returning production : 8 Weighted 5-year : 20 Proj. S&P+ : 21.4


Alabama
Georgia
Clemson
LSU
OU
UF
OSU
Auburn
Michigan
Mississippi State

This is the preseason S&P+ top ten.

A couple of those are hilarious.