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Started By
Message
RPI - How bad does the Stephen F. Austin loss hurt us?
Posted on 2/20/18 at 2:25 pm
Posted on 2/20/18 at 2:25 pm
Looking at their body of work and for a small school, it's damn impressive.
Overall 22-5 undefeated at home
SEC Opponents
Won LSU
Loss Missouri by 1
Loss Miss State by 5
Bad
Lost to
Southeastern
Lamar
Central Arkansas
Overall 22-5 undefeated at home
SEC Opponents
Won LSU
Loss Missouri by 1
Loss Miss State by 5
Bad
Lost to
Southeastern
Lamar
Central Arkansas
This post was edited on 2/20/18 at 2:27 pm
4
Posted on 2/20/18 at 2:26 pm to SmackDaniels
Vandy and GA hurt more.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 2:28 pm to SmackDaniels
Their RPI is in the 140 range, so the loss hurts, but it is not a sub-150 loss that be devastating. Best case scenario is SFA gets in as an automatic qualifier, so LSU's worst RPI loss was to a tournament team.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 2:33 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
Vandy and GA hurt more.
How? Vandy beat Fl and State last week
Posted on 2/20/18 at 2:37 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
Vandy and GA hurt more.
This is 100% not true. lol
Vandy was on road, doesn't hurt that bad. Georgia has a better RPI than SFA so this is also not true.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 2:38 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
Vandy and GA hurt more.
This is just completely false.
RPI
SFA = 140
Vandy = 104
UGA = 66
SFA was a loss at home, so was UGA. But Vandy was on the road. The SFA loss counts as a group of 3 loss which is really bad. The UGA and @ Vandy losses are Group 2.
We are 6-0 vs. Group of 4 teams, and 1-1 vs. Group of 3 teams. Only bad loss we have is SFA, technically speaking.
This post was edited on 2/20/18 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 2/20/18 at 2:40 pm to thunderbird1100
What RPI does the committee use when judging wins? Is there a definitive one? It seems like there are a few out there.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 2:48 pm to ellessuuuu
Not really that bad
They still could have made it with higher SEC finish
That one game is not the reason they will fall short
They still could have made it with higher SEC finish
That one game is not the reason they will fall short
Posted on 2/20/18 at 2:54 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
SFA = 140
How in the hell is their RPI that bad?
Posted on 2/20/18 at 3:00 pm to SmackDaniels
quote:
How in the hell is their RPI that bad?
I don't know the ins and outs of RPI calculation but from looking at their schedule, they've played 4 non D1 schools. They've played 6 games against 340+ RPI (not really their fault that NW State & Incarnate Word are 2 of the worst teams in the country and are in their conference, plus Florida A&M & Longwood).
All of that probably plays a big part.
ETA: plus a game against Houston Baptist who is 330+ in RPI
This post was edited on 2/20/18 at 3:05 pm
Posted on 2/20/18 at 3:09 pm to Tigerpaul1969
quote:
What RPI does the committee use when judging wins? Is there a definitive one? It seems like there are a few out there.
There are RPI groupings now that the committee will consider:
LINK
RPI Group 1: Home (1-30) Neutral (1-50) Away (1-75)
RPI Group 2: Home (31-75) Neutral (51-100) Away (76-135)
RPI Group 3: Home (76-160) Neutral (101-200) Away (136-240)
RPI Group 4: Home (161-351) Neutral (201-351) Away (241-351)
We are:
Group Record
(1) 7 - 5
(2) 1 - 5
(3) 1 - 1
(4) 6 - 0
Those 7 wins are incredibly good.
This post was edited on 2/20/18 at 3:10 pm
Posted on 2/20/18 at 3:11 pm to SmackDaniels
quote:
How in the hell is their RPI that bad?
They play a bad schedule. they played a bad non-conf and the Southland is very weak.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 3:20 pm to SmackDaniels
RPI is actually pretty simple.
It is calculated by 3 factors:
Teams win% - 25%
Opponents win% - 50%
Opponents Opponents win% - 25%
Now the tricky part comes in when it pertains to home/away.
College basketball basically counts road wins as 1.4 wins while home wins are 0.6 wins. Adversely Home losses count as 1.4 losses and and road losses count as 0.6 losses.
So winning games is important, but it's only 25% of the formula. 75% of the formula is basically strength of schedule.
It is calculated by 3 factors:
Teams win% - 25%
Opponents win% - 50%
Opponents Opponents win% - 25%
Now the tricky part comes in when it pertains to home/away.
College basketball basically counts road wins as 1.4 wins while home wins are 0.6 wins. Adversely Home losses count as 1.4 losses and and road losses count as 0.6 losses.
So winning games is important, but it's only 25% of the formula. 75% of the formula is basically strength of schedule.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 3:28 pm to SouthOfSouth
quote:
1. Teams win% - 25%
2. Opponents win% - 50%
3. Opponents Opponents win% - 25%
Let's try with LSU:
Factor 1:
Home
11-4 so Basically thats 11*.6 wins and 4*1.4 losses
6.6wins vs 5.6losses
Road
3-5 so basically thats 3*1.4wins and 5*.6 losses
4.2 wins vs 3 losses
Neutral
1-2
1 win vs 2 losses
so total LSU's RPI win % is 11.8 - 10.6 or .527
So LSU's portion of their RPI is only .132 (25% of their win%). The rest of their .5769 RPI is from strength of schedule and has nothing to do with how LSU performed. That's why a 25-5 team can have an awful RPI.
The other two factors are done the same way, however that gets very difficult to calculate without really impressive computers.
The numbers being different comes into play with some teams not counting such as D2 schools and stuff like that.
This post was edited on 2/20/18 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 2/20/18 at 3:32 pm to SmackDaniels
What hurts is the way we lost that game.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 3:34 pm to Madking
quote:
What hurts is the way we lost that game.
Not as it pertains to RPI seeing that RPI does not take score into account at all. One of the reasons I really hate RPI as a end all be all; but I respect it as a metric to be used with many others.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 3:52 pm to SouthOfSouth
Honestly when you compare LSU to other similar teams, everyone has a blemish or 2 on their resume'. The SFA loss certainly sucks, but isn't catastrophic. If the men go on a miracle run and reel off 5-6 more wins in a row then go on a deep run in the SECT, the SFA loss will be forgotten.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 4:02 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
SFA was a loss at home, so was UGA. But Vandy was on the road. The SFA loss counts as a group of 3 loss which is really bad. The UGA and @ Vandy losses are Group 2.
The point of people saying the UGA hurt more was b/c we should have won that game, and while we should have won against SFA, beating a better RPI UGA team is worth a whole lot more than beating a lower RPI SFA.
It's a hypothetical. UGA win with a SFA loss is worth more than a SFA win with a UGA loss in the RPI.
That's what is meant by the UGA and Vandy loss hurt more. They were winnable games that would positively affect the RPI. Beating SFA does nothing.
Posted on 2/20/18 at 4:06 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
beating a better RPI UGA team is worth a whole lot more than beating a lower RPI SFA.
This is not true.
They both mean the exact same. They each mean .6 wins; no more, no less. Win or lose they count toward our SOS but that has no bearing on their outcome with LSU.
This post was edited on 2/20/18 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 2/20/18 at 4:08 pm to TeddyPadillac
We scheduled too many crap teams as we usually do.
Alcorn State, Samford, UTMartin, Sam Houston, North Florida.
And UNW turned out to be bad. Memphis too.
I am hoping WW will schedule OOC better even if it means fewer home games.
Alcorn State, Samford, UTMartin, Sam Houston, North Florida.
And UNW turned out to be bad. Memphis too.
I am hoping WW will schedule OOC better even if it means fewer home games.
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