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Message
re: Question about the bias of SEC refs
Posted on 10/19/10 at 9:45 pm to josh336
Posted on 10/19/10 at 9:45 pm to josh336
quote:
Why just Florida Tennesse and LSU included? Why not all SEC teams?
Because it's too damned much work to come up with numbers...you have to get the numbers for each game for a team and add them up for the year. So I picked LSU, FL, and Tenn because I thought those three teams were comparable in strength to AUB and AL.
1
Posted on 10/19/10 at 9:48 pm to WikiTiger
I found these stats a couple years ago but haven't looked at them over last couple of years.
2008 PENALTIES G No. Yards Avg/G
1. Alabama 5 18 127 25.4
2. Vanderbilt 4 11 115 28.8
3. Arkansas 4 23 137 34.2
4. Kentucky 4 23 153 38.2
5. S. Carolina 5 31 259 51.8
6. LSU 4 24 214 53.5
7. Auburn 5 36 271 54.2
8. Florida 4 32 217 54.2
9. Miss. State 5 35 273 54.6
10. Ole Miss 5 32 306 61.2
11. Tennessee 4 29 250 62.5
12. Georgia 5 53 437 87.4
2007 PENALTIES G No Yds Avg/G
1. Alabama 13 59 453 34.8
2. Vanderbilt 12 59 479 39.9
3. South Carolina 12 69 532 44.3
4. Tennessee 14 74 641 45.8
5. Ole Miss 12 77 571 47.6
6. Auburn 13 80 619 47.6
7. Mississippi State 13 77 680 52.3
8. Arkansas 13 82 707 54.4
9. Kentucky 13 83 717 55.2
10. Georgia 13 91 760 58.5
11. Florida 13 107 805 61.9
12. LSU 14 117 880 62.9
2007 OPPONENT PENALTIES G No Yds Avg/G
1. Alabama 13 99 863 66.4
2. Ole Miss 12 86 700 58.3
3. Kentucky 13 84 737 56.7
4. South Carolina 12 78 667 55.6
5. Auburn 13 90 715 55.0
6. Mississippi State 13 84 695 53.5
7. Georgia 13 89 692 53.2
8. Vanderbilt 12 83 631 52.6
9. Florida 13 83 600 46.2
10. Tennessee 14 91 641 45.8
11. Arkansas 13 70 566 43.5
12. LSU 14 67 566 40.4
2006 OPPONENT PENALTIES G No Yds Avg/G
------------------------------------------
1. Alabama............. 13 90 732 56.3
2. Mississippi St...... 12 75 657 54.8
3. South Carolina...... 13 83 671 51.6
4. LSU................. 13 82 666 51.2
5. Kentucky............ 13 83 658 50.6
6. Vanderbilt.......... 12 69 598 49.8
7. Arkansas............ 14 81 618 44.1
8. Florida............. 14 81 595 42.5
9. Ole Miss............ 12 59 495 41.2
10.Georgia............. 13 70 529 40.7
11.Tennessee........... 13 66 481 37.0
12.Auburn.............. 13 59 472 36.3
2008 PENALTIES G No. Yards Avg/G
1. Alabama 5 18 127 25.4
2. Vanderbilt 4 11 115 28.8
3. Arkansas 4 23 137 34.2
4. Kentucky 4 23 153 38.2
5. S. Carolina 5 31 259 51.8
6. LSU 4 24 214 53.5
7. Auburn 5 36 271 54.2
8. Florida 4 32 217 54.2
9. Miss. State 5 35 273 54.6
10. Ole Miss 5 32 306 61.2
11. Tennessee 4 29 250 62.5
12. Georgia 5 53 437 87.4
2007 PENALTIES G No Yds Avg/G
1. Alabama 13 59 453 34.8
2. Vanderbilt 12 59 479 39.9
3. South Carolina 12 69 532 44.3
4. Tennessee 14 74 641 45.8
5. Ole Miss 12 77 571 47.6
6. Auburn 13 80 619 47.6
7. Mississippi State 13 77 680 52.3
8. Arkansas 13 82 707 54.4
9. Kentucky 13 83 717 55.2
10. Georgia 13 91 760 58.5
11. Florida 13 107 805 61.9
12. LSU 14 117 880 62.9
2007 OPPONENT PENALTIES G No Yds Avg/G
1. Alabama 13 99 863 66.4
2. Ole Miss 12 86 700 58.3
3. Kentucky 13 84 737 56.7
4. South Carolina 12 78 667 55.6
5. Auburn 13 90 715 55.0
6. Mississippi State 13 84 695 53.5
7. Georgia 13 89 692 53.2
8. Vanderbilt 12 83 631 52.6
9. Florida 13 83 600 46.2
10. Tennessee 14 91 641 45.8
11. Arkansas 13 70 566 43.5
12. LSU 14 67 566 40.4
2006 OPPONENT PENALTIES G No Yds Avg/G
------------------------------------------
1. Alabama............. 13 90 732 56.3
2. Mississippi St...... 12 75 657 54.8
3. South Carolina...... 13 83 671 51.6
4. LSU................. 13 82 666 51.2
5. Kentucky............ 13 83 658 50.6
6. Vanderbilt.......... 12 69 598 49.8
7. Arkansas............ 14 81 618 44.1
8. Florida............. 14 81 595 42.5
9. Ole Miss............ 12 59 495 41.2
10.Georgia............. 13 70 529 40.7
11.Tennessee........... 13 66 481 37.0
12.Auburn.............. 13 59 472 36.3
Posted on 10/19/10 at 9:49 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
I'm not sure what you were trying to accomplish here.
I was provided with a set of data. I proved that there is no statistically significant difference to make us reject the null hypothesis. (The null hypothesis being that teams are penalized at an even rate.)
quote:
There are not nearly enough samples for any meaningful analysis of this type.
Yes there are. The data that "Tiger1964" provided was enough.
I would appreciate it if someone could link me to more current data, and data for all teams in the SEC.
Posted on 10/19/10 at 9:52 pm to tigerskin
quote:
tigerskin
Thanks for posting that data. Unfortunately, I don't think it would be useful. It doesn't have an even amount of games for each team, and it includes non-SEC games as well, which means that it could have been officiated by refs from another conference, and that the concept of internal SEC bias is irrelevant in a non-conference game.
Posted on 10/19/10 at 9:53 pm to lsuexpert57
just have the calls reviewable.
pass interference, Blocks in the back, personal fouls, facemask could all be reviewable.
holding would be impossible to review all the time and offsides, false starts probably wouldn't matter that much.
But mainly, pass interference SHOULD be reviewable. Alot of possession, pre snap penalties, fumbles etc are already reviewed so why not PI?
maybe include it with a challenge/timeout and only to overturn a call not "get" a call.
basically anything that could directly affect the outcome of a game.
pass interference, Blocks in the back, personal fouls, facemask could all be reviewable.
holding would be impossible to review all the time and offsides, false starts probably wouldn't matter that much.
But mainly, pass interference SHOULD be reviewable. Alot of possession, pre snap penalties, fumbles etc are already reviewed so why not PI?
maybe include it with a challenge/timeout and only to overturn a call not "get" a call.
basically anything that could directly affect the outcome of a game.
This post was edited on 10/19/10 at 9:57 pm
Posted on 10/19/10 at 9:55 pm to Tiger 1964
quote:
Because it's too damned much work to come up with numbers
Yea, it is a lot of work. But this thread is starting to influence me to at least go and compile the data for the 2009 season for all SEC teams. I will sleep on it tonight and see if I still feel like doing it tomorrow. If so, then I'll run the statistical analysis and post the results tomorrow.
This post was edited on 10/19/10 at 9:56 pm
Posted on 10/19/10 at 9:59 pm to WikiTiger
quote:
I was provided with a set of data. I proved that there is no statistically significant difference to make us reject the null hypothesis. (The null hypothesis being that teams are penalized at an even rate.)
I may be a bit rusty, but from what I remember from my stats class, I would say the null hypothesis you are testing is that the samples are correlated. The .16 p-value allows you to say that the samples are not correlated.
This is not the same as saying they are penalized at an even rate, just that they are not correlated.
quote:
Yes there are. The data that "Tiger1964" provided was enough.
I still believe 6 samples are not enough to perform this type of analysis considering the variance of the samples.
This post was edited on 10/19/10 at 10:00 pm
Posted on 10/19/10 at 10:05 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
I may be a bit rusty, but from what I remember from my stats class, I would say the null hypothesis you are testing is that the samples are correlated. The .16 p-value allows you to say that the samples are not correlated.
This is not the same as saying they are penalized at an even rate, just that they are not correlated.
I ran an ANOVA:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ANOVA
quote:
In statistics, analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a collection of statistical models, and their associated procedures, in which the observed variance in a particular variable is partitioned into components due to different sources of variation. In its simplest form ANOVA provides a statistical test of whether or not the means of several groups are all equal, and therefore generalizes t-test to more than two groups. ANOVAs are helpful because they possess an advantage over a two-sample t-test. Doing multiple two-sample t-tests would result in an increased chance of committing a type I error. For this reason, ANOVAs are useful in comparing three or more means.
Posted on 10/19/10 at 10:06 pm to WikiTiger
quote:
So I ran an ANOVA on these numbers, and if I did everything correct, then this mathematically proves that there is no statistically significant difference in those numbers at all. In other words, there is no bias.
I thought that is what I stated. My point was that starting in 2003 Auburn and Alabama penalties averages dropped by 36 and 50 respectively from their 2002 numbers, and stayed that way for 5 years. If you plot it yearwise it is obvious. I would have made a graph of this but didn't know how to get into the RANT. Try analyzing each team's numbers from 2003 - 2007 and I bet you will see a much smaller variance for Auburn and Alabama than for the other three.
Posted on 10/19/10 at 10:07 pm to WikiTiger
The easiest fix of all would be to rotate the refs between conferences, so SEC refs were not calling SEC games. Rotating basis, changing conference by conference every week. This week our refs go the Pac-10, Big-10 comes here, B-12 goes to the Big East, etc....
As for the SEC refs calling games in the state of Alabama, have you not ever noticed the # of game altering calls that always seem to go against the road team??
LSU/Bama last year- PP no INT call
LSU at Auburn several times this decade
Arkansas/Auburn from last week
The list questionable SEC calls is long. Last year SEC officials were regularly criticized on the major sports networks.
Eventually you would think the odds would even out if all things were equal. This is what proves that all things are not equal.
As for the SEC refs calling games in the state of Alabama, have you not ever noticed the # of game altering calls that always seem to go against the road team??
LSU/Bama last year- PP no INT call
LSU at Auburn several times this decade
Arkansas/Auburn from last week
The list questionable SEC calls is long. Last year SEC officials were regularly criticized on the major sports networks.
Eventually you would think the odds would even out if all things were equal. This is what proves that all things are not equal.
Posted on 10/19/10 at 10:10 pm to WikiTiger
Yes!!! No question. Look were the ref's live. Theonly fair game called in Ala is when neither AU or UA don't play in it. Beating Auburn will be tough, but beating the ref's also is virtually impossible. I hope LSU does it and the ref's call a fair game.
Posted on 10/19/10 at 10:36 pm to Mike Honcho
Especially if you go back to an earlier play where LSU intercepted a pass and interfernce was called 5 yeards behind the interception and the call stood. So, I guess tipping negates interference but intercepting the ball doesn't equal tipping. B.S. Obvious bias by ref. In las 5 played at Aurburn so weird calls and no calls all went Auburn's way and IMO not by accident. Get the sec offices the hell out of alabama and go back to rotating for 4 years in each state. Two teams doens't equal 8 years in the state. 
Posted on 10/19/10 at 10:38 pm to OldSarge38
Wiki, I'm happy for you that you're excited about your stats class and are now trying to use quantitative analysis to answer this question, but here's the problem, not all answers can be obtained by quantitative analysis.
In order to make any real determinations, you need to know what penalties were called and just as important, what penalties weren't called, at what point in the game they were called, against what competition were they called, etc..
If you're really interested in the truth, You'd actually have a much better chance of arriving at it by studying white papers regarding human behavior.
But on the up side if you wish to pursue a career in quants, I see a bright future for you as a climate change researcher.
In order to make any real determinations, you need to know what penalties were called and just as important, what penalties weren't called, at what point in the game they were called, against what competition were they called, etc..
If you're really interested in the truth, You'd actually have a much better chance of arriving at it by studying white papers regarding human behavior.
But on the up side if you wish to pursue a career in quants, I see a bright future for you as a climate change researcher.
This post was edited on 10/19/10 at 10:45 pm
Posted on 10/19/10 at 10:41 pm to WikiTiger
Alabam went 48 quarters (14) games straight without a holding call. This seems impossible, but looke it up. Zero holding calls until this year when they played Penn State i believe, 14 games previous with no holding calls.....seem realistic?
Posted on 10/19/10 at 10:49 pm to OldSarge38
quote:
Look were the ref's live.
Where do they live?
Posted on 10/19/10 at 11:13 pm to Mike Honcho
quote:
That was the game where the Tiger was completely tackled before the ball got there and it was called pass interference (right at the end of the game). After review it was seen that the ball was tipped by another player 2 feet in front of the receiver well after the receiver had been tackled. Because of the tip it was deemed not pass interference. One of the biggest screw jobs I have ever seen.
I know this is going to send people on this board off the deep end, but that is absolutely the correct call.
The pass was tipped in the opposite direction of the receiver, several feet before it got to him. He had no chance to catch the pass because of the tip.
Pass interference had been called. When a ball is deemed uncatchable, pass interference CANNOT occur. Thus, the flag was correctly waved off.
What LSU fans SHOULD be arguing is that defensive holding was the correct call. That would not have been waved off because of the uncatchable ball. Since the Auburn defender did grab the receiver well before the ball arrived, I certainly think defensive holding could have been called. Whether it was not called because of the great Auburn-owns-all-SEC-officials conspiracy, I'll leave for you to debate.
Posted on 10/19/10 at 11:50 pm to wareaglewade
Best comparison would be to look at Bama and LSU penalties when looking at years Saban coached at each school.
For example, from evidence posted earlier, Sabans first year at Bama they were penalized approx. 30 times LESS than during any of Saban's LSU teams.
Saban adds another degree if control in the analysis IMO. His teams at LSU never went a year and a half without a holding call...that much I promise you.
For example, from evidence posted earlier, Sabans first year at Bama they were penalized approx. 30 times LESS than during any of Saban's LSU teams.
Saban adds another degree if control in the analysis IMO. His teams at LSU never went a year and a half without a holding call...that much I promise you.
Posted on 10/20/10 at 12:21 am to LSU Weirdo
quote:
If you don't think that the SEC refs protected Florida and Alabama last year, you are either incredibly naive or totally blind.
The SEC office was having wet dreams of a Florida/Bama SECCG. Those teams were the media darlings, and the SEC office wanted that SECCG... badly.
Right now, Auburn is ranked #4 and they have the Heisman front-runner. I would bet everything I own that the SEC office is having wet dreams of an undefeated Auburn and 1-loss Alabama playing the Iron Bowl of the century. A Bama win in that game would put them back in the NC game.
I fully expect the refs to do everything possible to keep Auburn in the game this weekend. If the LSU/Auburn game goes down to the wire, we will get ZERO close calls from the refs late in the game.
BOOK IT ! ! ! ! !
So you agree that LSU got the calls down the stretch in 2003 and 2007, right?
Or is it just Bama, Auburn, and UF that gets teh calls? Or is just ALL the SEC teams that are playing against LSU gets all the calls?
Posted on 10/20/10 at 12:23 am to icoczar
quote:
It's not just the number, it's the timing as well and you can't look at that statistically. 04 the leaping call at au, 06 the ball tipped mugging call at au, 07 the pp no int call at ua. all game changers
Or like the Corey Webster obvious PI when he got the INT in the endzone against Bama that completely turned the momentum of that game?
Posted on 10/20/10 at 12:35 am to WikiTiger
quote:Yea, the fact that they hire refs out of Birmingham, AL that live in and around Alabama which is a very polarized population for Alabama and Auburn makes no difference in how they call home games for those teams. They don't have family and neighbors in Alabama who are boosters of those teams and feel no pressure whatsoever to see things in a favorable light for the schools everyone in their daily life want to succeed. That's just crazy talk. After all, there is nothing subjective about calling a college football game.
However, the SEC offices in Alabama argument is stupid.
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