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re: Prefer Skenes to Open the Super or Potentially Close it Out??
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:00 pm to STEVED00
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:00 pm to STEVED00
quote:
In Supers you have win 2 games against the same team. LSU would obviously be trying to win both games. In fact someone NOT NAMED SKENES will need to beat Kentucky to go to CWS.
Skenes gives us the highest probability to win any particular game. Winning game one gives us the highest probability to win the series.
Skenes also has the highest probability of getting deeper into the game, which means fewer bullpen decisions. Reducing the number of decisions reduces the number of chances to be wrong. It also preserves the bullpen for later in the series.
1
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:00 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
There is no rationalizing starting anyone but Skenes
I can make the rationalization that if you win game 1 with Floyd then that could demoralize UK since they know their chances have just been greatly reduced on wining game 2.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:00 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
Skenes starts game 1, without question.
Agreed. But the constant overthinking from the fanbase will happen because of a 2pm start time, and worried about a 3:30 rain delay essentially burning Skenes.
I still start Skenes because rain is not guaranteed to happen, so you don't overthink it. Just have Hurd mentally ready to go extensive innings if the weather forces you to pull Skenes early.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:01 pm to Indefatigable
quote:Is that to say by starting Floyd in Game 1 that they wouldn't playing to win?
In the Supers, you play to win every single game.
And no, I'm not suggesting they do that.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:02 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
Skenes also has the highest probability of getting deeper into the game, which means fewer bullpen decisions. Reducing the number of decisions reduces the number of chances to be wrong. It also preserves the bullpen for later in the series.
I could make the argument that throwing Skenes 2nd gives your 1in bullpen guys additional rest bc Skenes won’t need the help.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:02 pm to Tigers4Lyfe
quote:
Is that to say by starting Floyd in Game 1 that they wouldn't playing to win?
No, it’s to say that Skenes gives you the best chance to win. You take the best chance, every time.
Playing cute and trying to ensure a game 2 victory is a fantastic way to lose game one and burn half the bullpen while doing it.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:03 pm to STEVED00
No brainer. You go with your Ace in Game#1. Close it out? If you lose first game you have to win the next two. Winning first game is a must.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:04 pm to STEVED00
quote:
I can make the rationalization that if you win game 1 with Floyd then that could demoralize UK since they know their chances have just been greatly reduced on wining game 2.
Guess what is more likely: LSU winning a Skenes start or LSU winning a Ty Floyd start?
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:04 pm to Indefatigable
The only way we don't start Skenes game 1 is if we know ahead of time that rain will threaten all day.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:05 pm to STEVED00
quote:
Prefer Skenes to Open the Super or Potentially Close it Out?? b
Is our fanbase really this stupid or are these trolls?
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:05 pm to STEVED00
quote:
Ok so what is the difference if he pitches 1st game or second?
Because needing to win game 2 AND 3 is different than needing to win game 2 OR 3
This isn’t even debatable, you pitch your ace in game 1.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:05 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
Playing cute and trying to ensure a game 2 victory is a fantastic way to lose game one and burn half the bullpen while doing it.
How is this playing cute? You need 2 wins. I would almost be more interested in who Kentucky pitches 1st. Skenes v Uk’s ace and Floyd vs Uk’s #2 is ideal bc our stud is better than their stud and I feel confident that our #2 is better than their #2. Skenes v UK’s #2 in game one and Floyd v Uk’s ace is NOT ideal.
This post was edited on 6/6/23 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:06 pm to STEVED00
quote:
I could make the argument that throwing Skenes 2nd gives your 1in bullpen guys additional rest bc Skenes won’t need the help.
Then make a fricking argument. You haven't actually made one in this thread yet.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:07 pm to Indefatigable
quote:I think I understand what you're saying, it's just your wording is funky.
No, it’s to say that Skenes gives you the best chance to win. You take the best chance, every time.
What you are trying to say is you go with highest win probability each game as you go along. So Skenes Gm 1, Floyd Gm2 and so on.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:07 pm to STEVED00
I can only repeat the same information to you so many times. 
There’s a reason everyone in the thread is telling you the same thing. Winning game one is the goal in game one. Paul Skenes gives us the best chance to win game one. Ty Floyd is a good pitcher and our second best arm, but he does not give us a a better chance to win game one than Paul Skenes.
There’s a reason everyone in the thread is telling you the same thing. Winning game one is the goal in game one. Paul Skenes gives us the best chance to win game one. Ty Floyd is a good pitcher and our second best arm, but he does not give us a a better chance to win game one than Paul Skenes.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:10 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
Then make a fricking argument. You haven't actually made one in this thread yet.
Let’s say Floyd requires 3 bullpen guys to go 1in each and Skenes would only require 1 bullpen guy to go one inning.
If Floyd goes 1st then 2 of the pen guys could get an additional days rest to be used for game 3. If Skenes goes 1st then more guys will have pitched the day before.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:16 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
There’s a reason everyone in the thread is telling you the same thing. Winning game one is the goal in game one. Paul Skenes gives us the best chance to win game one. Ty Floyd is a good pitcher and our second best arm, but he does not give us a a better chance to win game one than Paul Skenes.
How good is Kentucky #1 and #2? Is their #1 significantly better than their #2? This info matters.
We all know our ace is better than everyone else in the country’s ace so whoever UK throws out there LSU will be favored with Skenes on the mound. The question is “IF” one of UK’s pitchers is better than Floyd. If so if I am UK then I WANT that pitcher to pitch againt Floyd vs Skenes.
If I am UK I like my chances A LOT more IF I can get this to a 3rd game. If I am LSU, I want this series to end in 2 so I want to make sure the matchups are in my favor.
This post was edited on 6/6/23 at 12:17 pm
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:24 pm to STEVED00
After what we just saw in the regionals with Jays management of the pitching staff I would say let Jay handle it. He obviously knows more than we do and takes everything including weather into making his decisions
Posted on 6/6/23 at 12:25 pm to STEVED00
quote:
How would Floyd be conceding a game?
I was speaking about UKs coach. Reread post.
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