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re: Percentage chance that you give LSU to win in the Regular Season?
Posted on 6/26/10 at 10:37 pm to Nuts4LSU
Posted on 6/26/10 at 10:37 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
So would I. In fact, each time he went to bat, if I were asked to predict whether he'd get a hit on that at-bat, I'd predict he wouldn't.
And I'd be wrong 35% of the time. That's why, if I were asked to predict how many hits he'll get in the next 100 at-bats, I'd predict about 35.
This is the problem. It is not possible to be right or wrong 35 percent of the time. You are either right 100 percent or wrong 100 percent. You either win or lose. And if you want to put a number to the wins that we should expect on the season, anything .50 or up means that the event happened, in this case, a win.
So like I said, by your math, 8 wins on the season. By mine, it's more like 10-11.
2
Posted on 6/26/10 at 10:47 pm to south bama tiger
quote:You do realize that La Tech was starting their backup QB against LSU last year don't you?
For one, they have no QB. Don't say that "neither do we" because we have Jefferson, who has proven to be a servicable SEC QB.
Posted on 6/26/10 at 10:48 pm to Springlake Tiger
North Carolina 75%
@ Vanderbilt 90%
Miss. State 90%
West Virginia 80%
Tennessee 90%
@ Florida 50%
McNeese St. 100%
@ Auburn 50%
Alabama 50%
UL-Monroe 100%
Ole Miss 75%
@ Arkansas 50%
@ Vanderbilt 90%
Miss. State 90%
West Virginia 80%
Tennessee 90%
@ Florida 50%
McNeese St. 100%
@ Auburn 50%
Alabama 50%
UL-Monroe 100%
Ole Miss 75%
@ Arkansas 50%
Posted on 6/26/10 at 10:55 pm to Cabby
If we are fans of a given team (LSU) then shouldn't we support the team in the same mannor they feel they will play against every team during the year? There is no team playing athletics goes into a game thinking they are going to lose, likewise there is no team going into a season think they are going lose any games. So in other words, we as fans owe it to our team to think that we are going to win every game until the final whistle has blown before we finally say we lost that game. Why play the games if we are going to loose them before they are played?
So, after saying all that LSU is going to win every game:
North Carolina 100%
@ Vanderbilt 100%
Miss. State 100%
West Virginia 100%
Tennessee 100%
@ Florida 100%
McNeese St. 100%
@ Auburn 100%
Alabama 100%
UL-Monroe 100%
Ole Miss 100%
@ Arkansas 100%
If this happens then I believe LSU will win the Conference and also will have a chance of playing for the NC!
I say
So, after saying all that LSU is going to win every game:
North Carolina 100%
@ Vanderbilt 100%
Miss. State 100%
West Virginia 100%
Tennessee 100%
@ Florida 100%
McNeese St. 100%
@ Auburn 100%
Alabama 100%
UL-Monroe 100%
Ole Miss 100%
@ Arkansas 100%
If this happens then I believe LSU will win the Conference and also will have a chance of playing for the NC!
I say
Posted on 6/27/10 at 3:52 am to chilge1
quote:No, it's not.
That's exactly what it means.
quote:No, it applies anytime. Any sequence of 10 events with the same two possible outcomes (win or loss) and an 80% chance of one of those outcomes (in this case a win) would -- statistically speaking -- be most likely to result in that outcome occurring in 8 out of the 10 events.
This only applies if we play the same team ten times.
Whether you roll the same die 6 times or 6 different dice once each, odds are that 2 of the results will be a 5 or 6.
Adding probabilities is a fairly common tool for predicting the cumulative outcome of a series of events, and its accuracy usually correlates very strongly to the accuracy of the individual probabilities applied. In other words, if you can accurately assess our chances of winning each game, adding all those chances as Nuts did will very likely give you a strong approximation of the cumulative result.
ETA: I meant adding probabilities, not multiplying; changed to reflect that.
This post was edited on 6/27/10 at 3:54 am
Posted on 6/27/10 at 4:00 am to Springlake Tiger
quote:
@ Florida 30%
No Tebow and the entire UF defense bugging out should give us at least a 45%.
Posted on 6/27/10 at 4:02 am to chilge1
quote:So the only valid predictions for a team's chances to win a particular game are 100% or 0%? That's a really weird approach.
It is not possible to be right or wrong 35 percent of the time. You are either right 100 percent or wrong 100 percent.
quote:No, it doesn't. If you have to roll a 3 or higher on a single die to win a bet, that means you have a 66.7% chance of winning that bet. If you were going to make that bet 100 times in a row, your logic would dictate that your prediction would be 100 wins. Clearly (I hope) you realize that even though your chances of winning each individual bet are greater than 50%, that does not mean you have a very good chance of winning all 100. When calculating cumulative probabilities, some probabilities above 50% must be counted as not occurring; only probabilities of 100% are counted as occurring every time.
And if you want to put a number to the wins that we should expect on the season, anything .50 or up means that the event happened, in this case, a win.
Posted on 6/27/10 at 4:13 am to King Joey
quote:
Any sequence of 10 events with the same two possible outcomes and an 80% chance of one of those outcomes would be most likely to result in that outcome occurring in 8 out of the 10 events.
This is only true if the result of one event has an influence on the subsequent event. As each game is an individual event, and a win against North Carolina has no bearing on whether we beat Vanderbilt, this does not apply.
quote:
So the only valid predictions for a team's chances to win a particular game are 100% or 0%? That's a really weird approach.
I didn't say prediction. I said this was the only possible outcome. Therefore it's stupid to add percentages and/or decimals.
quote:
f you were going to make that bet 100 times in a row
But we're not playing the same game more than one time this season, so this line of thinking is unimportant.
Posted on 6/27/10 at 4:45 am to StatMaster
quote:
You do realize that La Tech was starting their backup QB against LSU last year don't you?
Huh? You mean LSU's J Lee @ 7 for 22 105yds, was actually an undercover QB for Tech?
I think Jenkins started every game for Tech in '09.
Posted on 6/27/10 at 5:05 am to Springlake Tiger
With vuvuzelas, 100%.
Posted on 6/27/10 at 5:16 am to chilge1
quote:
Percentage chance that you give LSU to win
50% every game. There are only 1 of 2 outcomes to each game, not 6 as a die. All else is speculation.
Posted on 6/27/10 at 7:22 am to Springlake Tiger
quote:
so you have us starting 5-0 and finishing 6-6 or 7-5? wow, that would be a collapse.
Yeah, a Les Miles team losing in November? How could that be possible?
Posted on 6/27/10 at 8:18 am to Nuts4LSU
quote:
Since our season will likely be in bad shape by this time
holy shite!
Posted on 6/27/10 at 9:04 am to Mayhawman
quote:
50% every game. There are only 1 of 2 outcomes to each game, not 6 as a die. All else is speculation.
Garbage. Home field advantage is statistically true. We also have much bigger recruiting "markets" than a La Tech, which is statistically important. Nice try though, almost made you sound smart for a second.
Posted on 6/27/10 at 10:09 am to ottothewise
North Carolina 55%
@ Vanderbilt 75%
Miss. State 70%
West Virginia 65%
Tennessee 65%
@ Florida 40%
McNeese St. 99%
@ Auburn 45%
Alabama 50%
UL-Monroe 98%
Ole Miss 80%
@ Arkansas 40%
@ Vanderbilt 75%
Miss. State 70%
West Virginia 65%
Tennessee 65%
@ Florida 40%
McNeese St. 99%
@ Auburn 45%
Alabama 50%
UL-Monroe 98%
Ole Miss 80%
@ Arkansas 40%
Posted on 6/27/10 at 10:16 am to chilge1
quote:
This is the problem. It is not possible to be right or wrong 35 percent of the time. You are either right 100 percent or wrong 100 percent.
That's ridiculous. If you make 100 predictions it's possible to be wrong on 35 of them. I hope I'm misunderstanding you here, because that is just stupid.
quote:
You either win or lose. And if you want to put a number to the wins that we should expect on the season, anything .50 or up means that the event happened, in this case, a win.
OK, you obviously can't grasp the concept of probabilities, so it's useless to continue discussing them with you. You go right ahead predicting that every batter in baseball will go 0-for-the-season every year, since in every at bat for every one of them, they will be less than 50% likely to get a hit. Likewise, you go ahead and predict a 12-0 season for any team that is 51% likely to win in each game they play.
One piece of advice, though...never go to Las Vegas. Or to any casino anywhere, actually.
Posted on 6/27/10 at 10:19 am to Dalosaqy
quote:
This is poor statistical logic. You are applying percentages to a formula used to determine a mean.
No, I'm considering each game to be a fraction of a win equal to the percentage chance we have of winning it, then adding them all up to see how many wins we will likely have after all 12 games.
It's best not to get into a debate when you don't understand the concept being debated.
Posted on 6/27/10 at 10:21 am to chilge1
quote:
Any sequence of 10 events with the same two possible outcomes and an 80% chance of one of those outcomes would be most likely to result in that outcome occurring in 8 out of the 10 events.
This is only true if the result of one event has an influence on the subsequent event. As each game is an individual event, and a win against North Carolina has no bearing on whether we beat Vanderbilt, this does not apply.
Wrong again, but no surprise here.
quote:
I didn't say prediction. I said this was the only possible outcome. Therefore it's stupid to add percentages and/or decimals.
Sure, it's stupid to use probabilities to predict future events. Like I said, Vegas is not for you. Trust me on this.
This post was edited on 6/27/10 at 10:22 am
Posted on 6/27/10 at 11:25 am to Nuts4LSU
This thread certainly took a turn for the funny.
Posted on 6/27/10 at 11:30 am to Springlake Tiger
North Carolina 72.8%
@ Vanderbilt 97%
Miss. State 81%
West Virginia 79%
Tennessee 84%
@ Florida 50%
McNeese St. 99.9%
@ Auburn 44%
Alabama 51.1%
UL-Monroe 99.9%
Ole Miss 88%
@ Arkansas 50%
When my boys get off the bus in 2010, there will be HELL to pay.
@ Vanderbilt 97%
Miss. State 81%
West Virginia 79%
Tennessee 84%
@ Florida 50%
McNeese St. 99.9%
@ Auburn 44%
Alabama 51.1%
UL-Monroe 99.9%
Ole Miss 88%
@ Arkansas 50%
When my boys get off the bus in 2010, there will be HELL to pay.
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