re: Official LSU vs Bama Thread. 7:30 PM Tip Off

Bad form and if you need help ask Chicken man.

LETS GEAUXXXX BAWS!

Posted this on SEC rant, but I figured I'd post it in here too. Just a quick preview I made that I don't think is biased

Key Matchup
These point guards going against each other is must see TV. Both true freshmen Tremont Waters and Collin Sexton are lightning quick, can change pace in an instant, and are good decision makers. Likely lottery pick Collin Sexton has traditionally, going back to his high school days, excelled against other quality point guards. Tremont Waters is not the type of player to back down though, and he will know that this game will have the most NBA scouts watching of any of his young career.

I give Sexton the slight edge in this matchup. However, I expect that edge to be nullified by the fact that Will Wade actually puts Waters in situations to succeed whereas Avery just has Sexton run high pick and roll every possession.

Questions for the Tide
Who will help Sexton?
In 10 wins, freshmen guard John Petty is averaging 14.4 ppg compared to only 8.16 in losses. These numbers are even more drastic in conference play- 16.5 ppg in wins vs 2.5 in losses.

Also of note, in 10 games against high major or power conference opponents, Sexton is averaging only 10.5 ppg in Bama's 4 wins vs 22 ppg in the 6 losses.

Can the Tide win on the road?
Alabama is 0-3 in true road games this year. In games away from Coleman, they are 0-5 against power conference opponents.

Questions for the Tigers
Is there a letdown effect for LSU?
LSU is 1-3 following wins against high major or power conference opponents this season. This stat is pretty common among teams that had developed a losing mentality. Obviously Wade has done a solid job trying to break that mentality, but it may still linger. Following a big win against Arkansas, it's possible the Tigers may have a letdown against a team they know has been awful on the road.

Will Duop Reath or Aaron Epps come up with a big game?
Both have performed admirably this season, but this could be a game where they could really breakout. Over the 5 Alabama losses against teams with real bigs (Vandy doesn't really use a big man), the opponent's star big is averaging 19.4 per game. Remove a 6 point outing from foul troubled Tacko Fall, and that number jumps to 22.75 ppg.

Prediction
I originally was thinking this would be a double digit win for LSU, but that spread has brought me down a bit. Until I see this Alabama squad perform well away from Tuscaloosa though, I'm not betting on them on the road.

Alabama 70
LSU 78

Nice write up

quote:

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Starters: Bama 10-6 2-2 SEC
F - Giddens 6'11 4 ppg 2.6 RPG
F - Key 6'8 3 ppg 5 RPG
F - Hall 6'9 11.5 ppg 7.2 RPG
G - Sexton 6'3 19.5 ppg 3.5 APG
G - Jonges 6'7 4.4 ppg 1.6 APG

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For a team whose recruiting class consisted of 2 ESPN Top 100 and 5-Star players in addition to a HC that head coached in the NBA, they've been underwhelming this season from a win-loss record perspective. As always, WhiteBoard Man!

My Brady Ball t-shirt is laundered and ready to go for tonight.

Unforunately I'll be watching from my apartment in single-digit temperature Chicago.

I'm looking for two! Msg me chase113005@yahoo.com

Just sent you an email

a sticky for basketball game this early?