re: NCAA Regional Host Candidate Comparison

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They will definitely get a bump win or lose, but if they lose two straight at this point, they’ll probably land back around #20. That may still be enough, but I think a lot depends on what everyone else does. A win today would be massive.

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Not using Georgia Southern RPI metrics

In looking at these numbers and based on whose done in the conference tournaments, I would argue that Virginia, Louisville, TCU, Auburn and Oregon should be eliminated from host contention. Due to RPI, Auburn and Louisville are probably still in contention while Arkansas is probably out and UCLA never was. UNC has added their name to the discussion as well. Along with USM, E Carolina and Texas St/Ga Southern, that means the candidate pool probably numbers around 19.

Florida added to the mix. I think that makes 20 contenders for 16 host spots. It’ll be interesting to see how the committee handles USM getting bounced from the CUSA tournament. ULL beating Ga Southern tomorrow would help. Texas beating Oklahoma to drop them below LSU in RPI would also help. Florida probably can’t win the SECT either.

LSU is currently #26 in the RPI. It’s unlikely anyone behind them gets a host spot, unless it’s Arkansas. Arkansas actually has a better record vs the SEC and a better overall season (including the sweep of LSU), but they aren’t playing well of late and the committee probably won’t move past their RPI.

Of the teams ahead of them, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Georgia, Georgia Tech, DBU, Texas St and Virginia are definitely not hosting. That leaves 19. Tennessee, Oregon St, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Miami, A&M, Texas, Oklahoma St. and Notre Dame are definitely in ahead of LSU. That leaves 9 teams for the last 6 spots.

UNC- They are currently #4 in the RPI. The only thing that might keep them out was their 15-15 regular season conference mark. Series wins over E Carolina and Coastal Carolina along with their run to the ACC title game make them almost certain to host.

East Carolina- They are currently #15 in the RPI. If they win tomorrow, they are likely to host. Even with a loss they probably host ahead of LSU.

Oklahoma- Currently right ahead of LSU in RPI. If they win the Big 12 tournament, they will host. If they lose, they are out.

Georgia Southern- They are #7 in the RPI, but the committee must know that’s hollow. They didn’t even win the Sun Belt. If ULL beats them tomorrow denying them the tournament title too, I don’t think they host. If they win, then I just don’t know what the committee will do.

USM- They are out of the CUSA tournament and outside the Top 16 in RPI. That may be enough to keep them for hosting, but I don’t know if the committee will still go with their better RPI.

That leaves 4 teams for anywhere from 1-4 spots: LSU, Auburn, Florida and Louisville. If Florida loses tomorrow I can’t see them getting a spot. If they win, I think they host. LSU deserves a spot ahead of Auburn based on better SEC record and better play down the stretch, but I don’t know if the committee will look past the RPI difference. Louisville would be a 5th host spot for the ACC. I think the SEC gets 4 spots before Louisville gets one. The question comes back to where the committee puts LSU relative to Auburn and Florida if they would be the odd man out.

As it sits right now, my guess is that LSU is #19. A Florida loss probably moves them ahead of both Florida and Louisville (to give the SEC 4 spots). Then they would need either an Oklahoma loss or a Ga Southern loss to get one of the last two host spots.

Best writeup I've seen on this.

Way more thought and substance put into it than I would have, whereas mine would be something like:

I can see LSU getting a Regional, on the basis of having a solid conference record in the SEC, and playing a competitive game against Tennessee in the tourney. Definitely not a Top 8 seed, but right on the bubble to be one of the last hosts.

I think your post quantifies what my gut feeling tells me.

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Good writeup. Alot of data there im sure wont even be considered by the committee. I think of your list of 4 potential hosts, i think louisville is hosting over lsu. Louisville went 18-11 in conference, has a higher rpi, and better quad 1 record.

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Yes, I agree that a lot of my data points won’t be considered by the committee. I was trying to balance between things I thought should be used to determine hosts and what the committee would actually do.

As to Louisville, I agree that based on the criteria the committee typically considers, they would be ahead of LSU for a host spot. The one factor I believe that would work in LSU’s favor is if the committee judges LSU to be 3rd or 4th in line for a host spot amongst SEC teams and the committee decides the SEC should get 3 or 4 spots before the ACC gets 5. That’s why I think Florida has to lose today for LSU to have any shot at hosting.

Here's a dumb question (please answer honestly, not tear the question apart):

Does the NCAA still show any emphasis on putting a regional somewhere that would draw a big crowd?

I know the top seeds will host. I'm wondering about, if you put ten teams in a hat for the bottom 4 regional seeds (13-16), would they put any weight on the fact that one of those teams (LSU, for example) would have 8k+ at each game, and another might have 2k?
I'm talking about teams that otherwise are closely grouped.

I felt like they USED to do that, if they could. Even though the money is all now TV money, it still looks better on TV to play at a big packed house. You want your product to have an atmosphere.
I'm looking at this, measuring LSU vs Fla as a host.

That used to be the main focus of regional bids. But now, it’s more about the true seeding process. The biggest factors being regular season, RPI and some basis on tournament results. So, I think we truly will be a 2 seed somewhere because of a couple of hiccups during the season. And the tourney really didn’t give us any advantage.

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Even though the money is all now TV money,

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Does baseball draw that much TV money now? I get it it’s not 1996 anymore but it’s not like it’s football either

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Tennessee, Oregon St, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Miami, A&M, Texas, Oklahoma St. and Notre Dame are definitely in ahead of LSU. That leaves 9 teams for the last 6 spots.

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UNC and E Carolina likely already had spots wrapped up, but they are locked in with wins today. I just don’t see how Ga Southern hosts when they didn’t win either the regular season or conference tournament. That leaves 6 teams for 4 spots with Oklahoma vs Texas still outstanding. I’m not sure how the committee handles that since they are announcing hosts before that game ends. I’m also not sure how they are going to look at USM. They are outside the Top 16 in RPI, but obviously there are teams ahead of them not hosting. I believe LSU deserves a host spot before either of the other SEC teams remaining (Auburn and Florida), but I suspect the committee is going to give precedence to RPI over conference standing. Since at least one of those teams is getting a spot, I think Louisville is safely in as a host. I just don’t have a good feel for who gets the final 3 spots out of Auburn, Florida, LSU, USM and Oklahoma. I really could see any 2 of those 5 being left out. It’s definitely a toss up.

I think texas and oklahoma are hosting…and georgia southern.

Feels like a 16 seed ga southern is the perfect sacrificial lamb to hand to tennessee, as a gift for running train on the league all year.

I think we finish about 18th