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LSU should be close to being in the Tourney conversation
Posted on 2/4/18 at 12:12 pm
Posted on 2/4/18 at 12:12 pm
The only place I have seen LSU making the tourney be discussed is on here, none of the bracketologists want to even bring us into the conversation. We don't look the part of a tournament team but we're also not too far off. Georgia has been considered in first four out by Lunardi and is very close in most predictions. So I'm gonna compare our resumes:
Georgia: 56 in RPI,69 in KenPom, 61 in Sagarin. Their best wins are vs St Mary, @Marquette, vs Bama, and vs UF. Bad losses are @Sd St, @UMASS, vs USC.
LSU: 75 in RPI, 68 in KenPom, 70 in Sagarin. Our best wins: Michigan on neutral, vs Houston, @Ark, and then the other Arkansas and both A&M games. Our bad losses are vs SFA, vs Georgia, @Vandy.
Losing to them head to head at home will kill us if there's ever a decision to be made between the two of us. The NCAA adjusted the criteria where road wins gets a multiplier of 1.3, Neutral is 1.0, and home wins are .7. We do play @UGA and @USC, both of which are close to us on the bubble and would be solid wins. We are significantly behind UGA in RPI but that's it. If we could pull off the improbable and win @UF we should enter the conversation immediately. The loss vs SFA is gonna haunt us some, but I believe our wins are better than theirs.
Georgia: 56 in RPI,69 in KenPom, 61 in Sagarin. Their best wins are vs St Mary, @Marquette, vs Bama, and vs UF. Bad losses are @Sd St, @UMASS, vs USC.
LSU: 75 in RPI, 68 in KenPom, 70 in Sagarin. Our best wins: Michigan on neutral, vs Houston, @Ark, and then the other Arkansas and both A&M games. Our bad losses are vs SFA, vs Georgia, @Vandy.
Losing to them head to head at home will kill us if there's ever a decision to be made between the two of us. The NCAA adjusted the criteria where road wins gets a multiplier of 1.3, Neutral is 1.0, and home wins are .7. We do play @UGA and @USC, both of which are close to us on the bubble and would be solid wins. We are significantly behind UGA in RPI but that's it. If we could pull off the improbable and win @UF we should enter the conversation immediately. The loss vs SFA is gonna haunt us some, but I believe our wins are better than theirs.
This post was edited on 2/4/18 at 1:34 pm
23
Posted on 2/4/18 at 12:14 pm to Corporal Beavis
Win out and they are in without question even if there is a first round bounce from the SEC tourney.
With that said, I’m predicting 18 wins.
With that said, I’m predicting 18 wins.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 12:17 pm to Corporal Beavis
Need several big wins against high RPI teams, including a couple on the road IMO.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 12:18 pm to Corporal Beavis
Beat Florida Wednesday and we are back in the conversation. But they gonna be pissed, I don't hold out much hope.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 12:23 pm to Corporal Beavis
Unless they win out, LSU is not making the tourney.
Should have beaten UGA, Bama and UK at home.
Should have beaten UGA, Bama and UK at home.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 12:27 pm to sunnydaze
I don't think we need to win out, we can afford losses like @florida. We need to win out at home though. I think if we finish of the season with 2 or 3 losses out of 8 games we will definitely be in the conversation. At that point we would need to go further than other SEC bubble teams(Gay&M, UGA, USC). We are not so far out that we need to win out though
Posted on 2/4/18 at 12:29 pm to Corporal Beavis
A year away
Posted on 2/4/18 at 12:29 pm to Corporal Beavis
How is Ga. considered a bad loss or the Vandy road loss a bad loss.
We aren't a tourney contender but only SFA is a bad loss
We aren't a tourney contender but only SFA is a bad loss
Posted on 2/4/18 at 12:31 pm to Corporal Beavis
Winning the SEC Tournament
Posted on 2/4/18 at 12:32 pm to Corporal Beavis
If we go 500 in the sec and do something in the sec tourny this year i think we would have to be on the bubble. Possibly getting in with a little luck. Sec is strong this year and winning the big 12 challenge helps even more. Not a usual year where only 2 to 4 sec teams get in. Jmo.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 12:34 pm to doubleb
I wanted to include at least 3 losses so I chose what I thought we're the worst 3. With the new criteria, home losses are very harmful to the resume. Also Vandy is easily the worst team in the SEC and we should've beat them. I agree SFA is far and away the worst loss, and the other 2 aren't completely terrible.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 12:41 pm to Corporal Beavis
We are quite a long shot.
4-6 means we are competitive so WW gets credit for that.
I’d love to make the Dance, but a couple home games in the NIT would be good for this program—definitely a worthy substitute.
4-6 means we are competitive so WW gets credit for that.
I’d love to make the Dance, but a couple home games in the NIT would be good for this program—definitely a worthy substitute.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 12:50 pm to Corporal Beavis
5-3 down the stretch and win a couple games in SEC tournament will put them on the bubble. But probably out.
6-2 with a couple tourney wins probably gets them in
6-2 with a couple tourney wins probably gets them in
Posted on 2/4/18 at 1:03 pm to Lgrnwd
Sunnydaze, I don't think LSU will make the tourney either, but I strongly disagree about them having to win out to get there. 5-3 finish and a couple of SECT wins might do it. 20 total wins should put us in the dance. 21 wins will. I don't see it myself, but it is certainly possible.
This post was edited on 2/4/18 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 2/4/18 at 1:05 pm to Corporal Beavis
quote:
How close is LSU to making the tourney conversation?
For in the conversation I would guess finish out 6 and 2. To actually get in probably in addition to a strong finish play in the SEC championship game.
I think I would look more toward the NIT this year but look out for next year.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 1:06 pm to Corporal Beavis
6 to 8 months
Posted on 2/4/18 at 1:10 pm to NotRight37
5-3 would put them at 18-12.
Doubt they are getting in with 12 losses.
They need to win at least 6 of the 8 imo.
Doubt they are getting in with 12 losses.
They need to win at least 6 of the 8 imo.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 1:11 pm to sunnydaze
quote:
Unless they win out, LSU is not making the tourney.
No
Posted on 2/4/18 at 1:12 pm to Corporal Beavis
You can't afford a loss at 15-8 Florida.
Af this point you need resume wins. Just beating teams who aren't going to the tourney won't help the case.
Af this point you need resume wins. Just beating teams who aren't going to the tourney won't help the case.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 1:48 pm to Corporal Beavis
LSU is 6-4 vs the RPI Top 50 and 2-3 vs the Top 25. Unfortunately they are 0-3 vs. teams ranked 51-100 and have two sub 100 losses. That stupid 1 point loss to SFA really stings. Missed a GD layup at the buzzer. Still makes me mad.
Pretty solid resume, but the overall performance and consistency hasn't been there. There's a lot to be proud of just to be on the fringes of the bubble, to be honest.
Pretty solid resume, but the overall performance and consistency hasn't been there. There's a lot to be proud of just to be on the fringes of the bubble, to be honest.
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