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LSU Pitching Setup vs Georgia
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:07 pm
TLDR summary at the end. LSU’s back to playing well and sits 9-15 in SEC play. It’s been hashed out already that 13 wins, with LSU’s low RPI (because of Q4 losses), will likely require at least 2 wins in Hoover. This is doable, but sweeping Florida at home is a tough ask. Assuming LSU goes 2-1 against UF would require 2 wins in Athens this weekend.
Georgia has 2 Aces, Joey Volchko (3.63 ERA) and Dylan Vigue (2.35). They don’t have a Sunday starter and give up 8.6 runs per Sunday game. They’re only 4-4 in Friday SEC games, but 8-0 on Saturday only allowing 2.5 runs on Saturdays.
If I’m Jay, I stick with Schmidt on Friday and if you can manage a lead, bring in Evans to secure the W. You throw Paz Saturday, and try to hold Cowan, Fontenot, and Sheerin for Sunday where you’ll have the pitching advantage.
If you lose Friday, you have to start Evans Saturday and hope to do something no other SEC teams has done, beat UGA on Saturday and try to hold Cowan for Sunday. Thoughts?
TLDR: LSU needs 2 at UGA. UGA has 2 aces, and their Saturday starter is 8-0 in SEC play. Would you throw Schmidt and Evans Friday, almost concede Saturday to save your few good bullpen arms for Sunday?
Georgia has 2 Aces, Joey Volchko (3.63 ERA) and Dylan Vigue (2.35). They don’t have a Sunday starter and give up 8.6 runs per Sunday game. They’re only 4-4 in Friday SEC games, but 8-0 on Saturday only allowing 2.5 runs on Saturdays.
If I’m Jay, I stick with Schmidt on Friday and if you can manage a lead, bring in Evans to secure the W. You throw Paz Saturday, and try to hold Cowan, Fontenot, and Sheerin for Sunday where you’ll have the pitching advantage.
If you lose Friday, you have to start Evans Saturday and hope to do something no other SEC teams has done, beat UGA on Saturday and try to hold Cowan for Sunday. Thoughts?
TLDR: LSU needs 2 at UGA. UGA has 2 aces, and their Saturday starter is 8-0 in SEC play. Would you throw Schmidt and Evans Friday, almost concede Saturday to save your few good bullpen arms for Sunday?
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:09 pm to Tifway419
We are gonna win this series. Book it.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:10 pm to Tifway419
You sure Evans is pitching this weekend?
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:13 pm to LSBoosie
No, but Jay’s pressers have alluded to him returning this weekend. I haven’t watched yesterday’s presser so I could be missing the most up to date information.
Jay has also been extremely misleading (not saying he’s lying, injuries are tricky) with pitching injuries in the past, so who knows.
Jay has also been extremely misleading (not saying he’s lying, injuries are tricky) with pitching injuries in the past, so who knows.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:14 pm to Tifway419
quote:
Would you throw Schmidt and Evans Friday, almost concede Saturday to save your few good bullpen arms for Sunday?
Are we getting Evans back for sure? Whatever the case, I would play both games by ear. If you are winning in the 5th or 6th, whenever Schmidt is done, bring in whomever you think can close it out. Same philosophy Saturday.
How you approach Sunday will be colored by what you do Friday & Saturday,
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:14 pm to Tifway419
He hasn't thrown a bullpen yet. Only flat ground.
To me that implies Florida at the absolute earliest. And that's if he actually throws a bullpen this week.
Safe bet is still 2027.
To me that implies Florida at the absolute earliest. And that's if he actually throws a bullpen this week.
Safe bet is still 2027.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:16 pm to mdomingue
Under normal circumstances, yes. But Saturdays against UGA has been the most difficult SEC game this season. Do you ignore this and go for it, or would it be smart to hold your bullets for Sunday?
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:18 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:Does he need 2-3 bullpen sessions from the mound to get back to his normal starter routine? What if he throws 1 bullpen session this week, would that allow him to come in as a reliever for 3-4 innings?
He hasn't thrown a bullpen yet. Only flat ground. To me that implies Florida at the absolute earliest. And that's if he actually throws a bullpen this week. Safe bet is still 2027.
What makes you think he’ll be shut down for the season?
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:19 pm to Tifway419
Play the odds. Go for the Friday W and be in the drivers seat. Hope their Saturday ace is off his game but still set yourself up for Sunday.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:21 pm to Tifway419
quote:
What makes you think he’ll be shut down for the season?
CJJs track record when it comes to pitchers and managing their injuries. He isn’t going to risk a guy we need for next season for this season.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:21 pm to Tifway419
quote:
Does he need 2-3 bullpen sessions from the mound to get back to his normal starter routine?
My speculation is that he needs at least two before seeing the game mound. One to establish a baseline (and hopefully be pain free). And then a second pain free one before throwing in a game.
If he can pitch in a game, I think they'll take what they can get and not wait for him to be ready for a starters workload.
quote:
What makes you think he’ll be shut down for the season?
History.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:21 pm to Tifway419
quote:
No, but Jay’s pressers have alluded to him returning this weekend. I haven’t watched yesterday’s presser so I could be missing the most up to date information.
People thought that he would pitch in some capacity this past weekend then Jay basically came out and said that he was never going to pitch because he hadn’t even thrown a bullpen. He was pretty clear that they are taking it slow with him.
This post was edited on 5/4/26 at 12:23 pm
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:25 pm to Tifway419
quote:this isn’t factoring in LSU’s brand power
It’s been hashed out already that 13 wins, with LSU’s low RPI (because of Q4 losses), will likely require at least 2 wins in Hoover.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:28 pm to Tifway419
quote:
But Saturdays against UGA has been the most difficult SEC game this season. Do you ignore this and go for it, or would it be smart to hold your bullets for Sunday?
I get that, my point still stands as it relates to how the game is progressing. I would say much of the Saturday success is because of the starting pitcher. If he has a bad game and you run him out of the game with LSU leading, you try to win that game.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:30 pm to LSBoosie
I don’t think that Evans is pitching again this season. I think that Jay is publicly leaving the possibility open to leave some uncertainty/misdirection for the next few opponents in their scouting.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:31 pm to Tifway419
We just swept a series, so I'd be surprised if Jay didn't leave everything as is with Schmidt, Paz, Cowan rotation. This may be a magic formula for success. We shall see. If Evans is serviceable, he could always pitch in the relief role that he thrived in last year.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:36 pm to Jack Crevalle
quote:
We just swept a series, so I'd be surprised if Jay didn't leave everything as is with Schmidt, Paz, Cowan rotation.
I like it for this weekend with UGA being 8-0 on Saturday's in SEC play. I think we see him move Cowan to Saturday if Evans isn't back in the lineup. Moving up Cowan for the last series puts him in a better position to pitch in Hoover. We will need all of our horses to win as much as we can there.
If we make a regional, that would have him throwing game in a game against either a #1 seed or elimination game.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:37 pm to Tifway419
quote:
It’s been hashed out already that 13 wins, with LSU’s low RPI (because of Q4 losses), will likely require at least 2 wins in Hoover.
One might make it. At 13 wins, I would expect our RPI to be between 40-45, especially since that means sweeping Florida or winning 2 at Georgia.
Both would be a significant boost for LSU's RPI, which sits at 55 right now and projects at 52 with just 2 more SEC wins
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:39 pm to Tifway419
quote:
LSU’s back to playing well
Slow your roll my dude…don’t get me wrong, I’m glad our pitching was able to perform well against the worst offensive team in the SEC, but let’s temper expectations moving forward.
Posted on 5/4/26 at 12:43 pm to LigerFan
quote:
Moving up Cowan for the last series puts him in a better position to pitch in Hoover.
Thinking along these lines, this scenario could make sense.
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