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LSU OVER/ UNDER 7 wins -110 WTF?

Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:34 am
Posted by boxcar willie
kenner
Member since Mar 2011
16049 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:34 am
Seems like a petty safe bet. So at 7 games its a wash, you get your money back? At 6 or less you lose. 8 or more is a win.

Why so you think the line is this low? Not a lot of faith in Coach O even in vegas apparently.
Posted by seawolf06
NH
Member since Oct 2007
8159 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:35 am to
Take off your purple and gold glasses. 6 wins is about what should be expected this year given the current situation.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
132615 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:36 am to
Currently I believe LSU is better than 7. I might have to put money on this.
Posted by redneck
Los Suenos, Costa Rica
Member since Dec 2003
53987 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:39 am to
guaranteed losses: at auburn, vs georgia, vs bama

toss ups but most likely losses: miami, at UF, at a&m

toss ups: ole miss, miss st, at arkansas


odds are we lose 6 or more
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
132615 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:39 am to
quote:

Take off your purple and gold glasses. 6 wins is about what should be expected this year given the current situation.




With the addition of Burrow, solid o-line and elite WRs the offense will produce. Burrow will keep the turnovers down. Aranda's defense will be grande.

LSU +8 wins this season even with one of the most difficult schedules in college football.
Posted by CelticDog
Member since Apr 2015
42867 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:40 am to
7-5 Ain't about the coach

No returning qb.

Dline is not deep enough to suit me.

Oline good but no great tackles.

Miami
Bama
Aubie

Win one, save season
Win two, head held high
Win Aubie and Bama , play Georgia for sec champ.


This post was edited on 7/16/18 at 10:42 am
Posted by Solo Cam
Member since Sep 2015
33897 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:41 am to
I was the thinking about driving over to Mississippi and laying down 500 in the over but if LSU losses 5 games and I lose 500 bucks on it then I’m going to lose my shite.

This post was edited on 7/16/18 at 11:10 am
Posted by GeauxTigerTM
Member since Sep 2006
30596 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:41 am to
quote:

Seems like a petty safe bet. So at 7 games its a wash, you get your money back? At 6 or less you lose. 8 or more is a win.

Why so you think the line is this low? Not a lot of faith in Coach O even in vegas apparently.



Even as hard as I've been on Orgeron and his hiring/handling of the program thus far, over 7 seems like a given. LSU hasn't had less than 8 wins total on the season since 1999. My issue has never been that I think he'll bring us back to 5-7 type seasons but that he'll be no better than the tail end of the miles era or worse.

That being said, there's a reason Vegas does what they do...they don;t tend to be that off most of the time or otherwise they couldn't keep the lights on.

A fun exercise would be to go back over the past 20 season and see if you can find what the preseason over/under was and if LSU exceeded it or not.
Posted by Goldrush25
San Diego, CA
Member since Oct 2012
33833 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:42 am to
I think most people see 8 or 9 wins if everything goes right. And everything going right is rare. Players get injured, suspended, or just plain underperform. When I see 7 wins as a real possibility, I'm taking into account the unknown factors that will no doubt take effect.
This post was edited on 7/16/18 at 10:43 am
Posted by Solo Cam
Member since Sep 2015
33897 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:43 am to
quote:

7-5 Ain't about the coach
Horse. shite.

If you put Jimbo, Saban, Meyer, Herman, Smart or Gary Patterson on this team then the line would move to 8.5/9

7-5 line is because O is a trash HC and no one knows what Einsmingers offense will look like.
Posted by Lafourche Connection
On The Bayou
Member since Jun 2018
221 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:43 am to
quote:

Take off your purple and gold glasses. 6 wins is about what should be expected this year given the current situation.




Please for the love of God tell me what is our current situation? We are the deepest we have ever been at QB, OL, WR, DL, LB. RB unknown and the lack of depth at CB if we sustain injuries. QB is unproven but nothing we haven't seen in years here. Now add in Burrow and I'm liking it.

I for one love how we are flying so far under everyone's radar


quote:

Dline is not deep enough to suit me.


Holy shite dude? What are you wanting at Dline to make you think it's not deep? Let me help you here in case you don't know.

Travez Moore(new)
Jarell Cherry(new)
Rashard Lawrence
Breiden Fehoko(new)
Neil Farrell
Justin Thomas
Glen Logan
Nelson Jenkins(new)
Dare Rosenthal(new)
Chasen Hines(new)
Dominic Livingston(new)
Tyler Shelvin(new)
Ed Alexander

That's 8 players that weren't on this team last year!




This post was edited on 7/16/18 at 10:52 am
Posted by ctiger69
Member since May 2005
30858 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:44 am to
7 wins will be tough this year
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
132615 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:45 am to
quote:

That being said, there's a reason Vegas does what they do...they don;t tend to be that off most of the time or otherwise they couldn't keep the lights on.


Vegas initially takes an educated guess. That guess is where 50% will bet on one side and the other 50% will bet on the other side. Vegas will move the line if too much money gets on one side to get back to the 50/50 balance. Vegas is making money off the juice not the bet. That's the sure money.
Posted by Solo Cam
Member since Sep 2015
33897 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:45 am to
quote:

6 wins is about what should be expected this year given the current situation.
Onyl way ill ever be ok with 6 losses is if we’re coming off a playoff appearance.

If O goes 6-6 he should be fired before making it to the locker room.
Posted by LSUFanMizeWay
Picayune MS
Member since Sep 2014
6143 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:46 am to
10 Wins, if he doesn't make it, send him to the Shrimp Boats.
Posted by GeauxTigerTM
Member since Sep 2006
30596 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:47 am to
quote:



Vegas initially takes an educated guess. That guess is where 50% will bet on one side and the other 50% will bet on the other side. Vegas will move the line if too much money gets on one side to get back to the 50/50 balance. Vegas is making money off the juice not the bet. That's the sure money.


Right...but there's a reason they started at 7 and not 9 though, right? That's more my point.
If 7 was a terrible first line, meaning everyone would jump on the over right out of the gate, it would have been a bad starting point, right?
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
75273 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:50 am to
I dont Think Auburn is guaranteed.

They still can’t pas block. They play well like half the time.

quote:

toss ups but most likely losses: miami, at UF, at a&m


I like Jimbo but that team isn’t all of a sudden be good. Jimbos has shown he can win with talent and I dont Thin A&M has the talent you need to win in the SEC yet.

I also Think we beat Florida. You is their QB? People act like Mullen was beating our arse with a Chris Relf. He had an NFL QB and went like 1-2 vs LSU.

Also frick you’re toss up losses. Ole Miss is trash. People will have film on the backup his season. Also Arkansas won’t be able to keep that tall statue up long enough to do anything.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
132615 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:52 am to
quote:

Right...but there's a reason they started at 7 and not 9 though, right? That's more my point.
If 7 was a terrible first line, meaning everyone would jump on the over right out of the gate, it would have been a bad starting point, right?




Right. It's not a terrible first line. 7 is more of a national perception IMO. Vegas is just a reflection of that perception and Vegas does create that perception. They have narrative makers and most of the time the narratives are based on solid analysis. They are wrong at times too. And they can afford to be wrong as long as the money is 50/50.
Posted by Lebowski
Dallas
Member since Oct 2013
3544 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 10:59 am to
So true!
Posted by LSUShock
Kansas
Member since Jun 2014
5286 posts
Posted on 7/16/18 at 11:03 am to
I put $100 on it, but got it at -130. LSU hasn't won less than 8 games in a long time. I feel pretty comfortable that they get to at least 7.
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