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Started By
Message
re: LSU on bubble, work to do per ESPN
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:31 am to JR Hamilsbach
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:31 am to JR Hamilsbach
quote:
Hypothetically, what do you think our seed would be if we beat A&M and UK and lose in the final? What would our seed be if we win the SEC tournament?
7
This post was edited on 3/10/15 at 10:32 am
0
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:43 am to LSU316
At the same time, teams like North Carolina State (19-12), Texas (19-12), Oklahoma State (18-12), Xavier (19-12) Indiana (19-12), Illinois (19-12), UCLA (19-12) and Stanford (18-12)are all given higher consideration than LSU because of their conference affiliations. [Frankly, the SEC gets this same benefit in football and in baseball.]
There are quite a few teams that have records as good as if not better than LSU, all of whom could claim being screwed if not selected - even though many of them play in "mid major" and "minor" conferences.
There are quite a few teams that have records as good as if not better than LSU, all of whom could claim being screwed if not selected - even though many of them play in "mid major" and "minor" conferences.
This post was edited on 3/10/15 at 10:44 am
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:46 am to Snakebucket
I would bet $20 we're in, but I wouldn't bet $500.
I still feel like we need to win against A&M before it's a "lock," and if we lose on Friday, we are on a bubble that hopefully doesn't burst.
I still feel like we need to win against A&M before it's a "lock," and if we lose on Friday, we are on a bubble that hopefully doesn't burst.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 10:58 am to El Campo Tiger
quote:
I still feel like we need to win against A&M before it's a "lock," and if we lose on Friday, we are on a bubble that hopefully doesn't burst.
by friday, we will know if bubbles will be bursting. all of the mid major tourneys will be complete by then
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:11 am to Eternally Undefeated
quote:
At the same time, teams like North Carolina State (19-12), Texas (19-12), Oklahoma State (18-12), Xavier (19-12) Indiana (19-12), Illinois (19-12), UCLA (19-12) and Stanford (18-12)are all given higher consideration than LSU because of their conference affiliations. [Frankly, the SEC gets this same benefit in football and in baseball.]
Not true at all. Every one of those teams has a better strength of schedule than LSU. THAT is LSU's biggest negative. For the last 5-6 years the NCAA has been emphasizing that teams go out and schedule tough games in the non-conf. Comparatively speaking LSU did not do so this year. In fact, LSU had the 3rd worst SOS and non-conf. SOS of ANY SEC team.
Anyone who followed this team from the preseason on knew that the non-conf. scheduled was going to leave LSU will little room for error. That's the biggest reason why you have a 22-9 team with 5 top 50 wins still ranked behind two 12 loss teams (NC State and Texas) who have fewer top 50 wins. It's why Georgia is considered more of a "lock" than LSU even though A) LSU beat UGA and B) UGA has 0 top 25 wins
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:30 am to Eternally Undefeated
quote:
At the same time, teams like North Carolina State (19-12), Texas (19-12), Oklahoma State (18-12), Xavier (19-12) Indiana (19-12), Illinois (19-12), UCLA (19-12) and Stanford (18-12)are all given higher consideration than LSU because of their conference affiliations
We're ahead of all those teams but NC State and Xavier.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:32 am to Snakebucket
In today's Bubble Watch column, a couple things of note:
Ole Miss is dropped back to "work left to do". That is big if true: it reduces SEC locks back to 3, indicating the SEC might not be considered as strong as we were thinking a couple weeks ago. Also, our sweep of Ole Miss gets lessened a bit.
Regarding LSU directly, the point is stated directly that LSU has plenty of good wins, but a lot of bad losses.
A&M is a pretty scary contrast to us- they have only a couple good wins (us, to be specific) but no bad losses. What makes it bad is that it's clearly suggested they need to win games in the tournament... and if they win games, that means they will beat us again.
My opinion is we should be good, but to remove any doubt, we NEED to win against A&M at the very least, and it would certainly help if Ole Miss can win a game too.
Ole Miss is dropped back to "work left to do". That is big if true: it reduces SEC locks back to 3, indicating the SEC might not be considered as strong as we were thinking a couple weeks ago. Also, our sweep of Ole Miss gets lessened a bit.
Regarding LSU directly, the point is stated directly that LSU has plenty of good wins, but a lot of bad losses.
A&M is a pretty scary contrast to us- they have only a couple good wins (us, to be specific) but no bad losses. What makes it bad is that it's clearly suggested they need to win games in the tournament... and if they win games, that means they will beat us again.
My opinion is we should be good, but to remove any doubt, we NEED to win against A&M at the very least, and it would certainly help if Ole Miss can win a game too.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 9:14 pm to El Campo Tiger
I'll bet $500 LSU is in regardless of how the SECT plays out.
Any takers?
Any takers?
Posted on 3/10/15 at 9:19 pm to Scoob
quote:It's because of their late season slide. If they lose round 2 of SECT v. Mizz/USCe, they are bubble-ish. But it would have to come with TAMU getting past LSU and more than likely having to beat UK. I said (yesterday?) there is a scenario in my head that TAMU gets SEC 5th spot over UM.
Ole Miss is dropped back to "work left to do".
But in all reality - besides outlier possibilities - SEC has 5 teams in and TAMU is looking to be 6th. They won't knock LSU out with a win.
UK
ARK
UGA
LSU
are safe.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 9:23 pm to Snakebucket
Wins in tourny = lets make it clear we deserve to be in
Posted on 3/10/15 at 9:30 pm to Geaux Team Geaux
quote:LSU is only playing for seeding now.
Wins in tourny = lets make it clear we deserve to be in
Clearly I want LSU to beat TAMU if TAMU makes it to round 3 and would love LSU to beat UK in round 4 and go on to win the SECT. But in all reality, it doesn't matter. LSU can make a run in the NCAAT, and that's all that matters.
This post was edited on 3/10/15 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 3/10/15 at 9:54 pm to El Campo Tiger
Agree. Winner vs aTm goes to the tourney - loser likely to the NIT. It's too easy to find either a scapegoat for the committee as both have stumbled their final week of regular season.
There are other big names [UCLA] that no one would cough at should they slip into the tourney over us if we are one-and-out in the SECC. Another to slip in could be BYU. They beat Gonzaga when they were #3 and are playing them tough in the WCC final. Their RPI is 37, but I'm not finding them in one of the proposed brackets and another has them in a play-in game. They've won every game they've had since February 5th and the committee loves teams that play consistently well in February and March. Their worst non-conference loss was to Purdue.
There are other big names [UCLA] that no one would cough at should they slip into the tourney over us if we are one-and-out in the SECC. Another to slip in could be BYU. They beat Gonzaga when they were #3 and are playing them tough in the WCC final. Their RPI is 37, but I'm not finding them in one of the proposed brackets and another has them in a play-in game. They've won every game they've had since February 5th and the committee loves teams that play consistently well in February and March. Their worst non-conference loss was to Purdue.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 9:58 pm to Snakebucket
the tigers are going dancing. the arkansas win on the road without mickey locked it up.
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:24 pm to drizztiger
quote:I appreciate your optimism, I wish I could feel that way myself. I just don't think LSU is that solid yet. There are lots of things that could be used to justify excluding us- a stack of terrible losses, a weak strength of schedule, and a not-too-impressive record down the stretch.
drizztiger
Posted on 3/11/15 at 7:24 am to Alt26
quote:
For the last 5-6 years the NCAA has been emphasizing that teams go out and schedule tough games in the non-conf.
This needs to be addressed. The Barclay's tournament is a start, and certainly better than the lineup in the one we played this year, need to upgrade the rest of the OOC schedule.
Posted on 3/11/15 at 8:20 am to Tiger Ugly
NC State
Marquette
Arizona State
one of those teams is decent this year...
we need to play the likes of Duke, Kansas, Michigan State, Villanova, UNC...the teams that are ALWAYS decent to great. We need to play 6 of that caliber every year...going 2-4 against teams like that would be a great thing. SOS would be top 30, and going 12-6 in conference would be plenty.
Marquette
Arizona State
one of those teams is decent this year...
we need to play the likes of Duke, Kansas, Michigan State, Villanova, UNC...the teams that are ALWAYS decent to great. We need to play 6 of that caliber every year...going 2-4 against teams like that would be a great thing. SOS would be top 30, and going 12-6 in conference would be plenty.
Posted on 3/11/15 at 8:51 am to Scoob
Finally found someone that broke down the actual size of the bubble right now. This is from the comment section:
quote:
Posting this again.
According to this there are 33 locks on this page. Let's assume they all make the tourney.
68-33=35
There are 32 conferences which receive automatic bids to the tournament. Let's assume a team that is locked up on this page wins each of their conference tourneys. There are 9 conferences listed ahead so take 9 away from the 32 automatic bids.
32-9=23
So we take those 23 automatic bids away from the total after entering the locks.
35-23=12
This basically tells us there are 12 spots available for teams not locked in/on the bubble to make the tourney. If we wanted to narrow it down even more we could also include the teams who are listed as "Should be in" (Ok State, Xavier, Purdue, Ole Miss, and BYU)
12-5=7
So in conclusion there are roughly 7 spots available for all the teams who haven't quite done enough yet ASSUMING A LOCK FROM EACH OF THE CONFERENCES ABOVE WINS THEIR RESPECTIVE CONFERENCE TOURNEY.
So who do you think the last 7 in should be?
If it was me picking I say: Boise State, Colorado State, LSU, Old Dominion, Richmond Temple, and Tulsa
That being said teams like Indiana, Illinois, UCLA, Miami or Texas could easily slide in with upset wins in their conference tourneys.
I'll post this more to update roughly how many spots are available during championship week
Posted on 3/11/15 at 9:47 am to CubsFanBudMan
It really all depends on what is important to each committee member. The SEC was a good but not great conference this year and LSU did not challenge themselves in the non-conf. Compared to many of the "bubble" teams, LSU did not play a tough schedule.
That said, LSU beat (home and away) most of the good teams they played this year: 5-2 vs top 50; 7-3 vs 51-100. If who you beat matters more than who you lost to, then LSU should be in good shape.
I don't know how old this post is, but in looking at the "should be in" teams listed (IMO) only Oklahoma St. has a prohibitively better resume than LSU.
That said, LSU beat (home and away) most of the good teams they played this year: 5-2 vs top 50; 7-3 vs 51-100. If who you beat matters more than who you lost to, then LSU should be in good shape.
quote:
This basically tells us there are 12 spots available for teams not locked in/on the bubble to make the tourney. If we wanted to narrow it down even more we could also include the teams who are listed as "Should be in" (Ok State, Xavier, Purdue, Ole Miss, and BYU)
I don't know how old this post is, but in looking at the "should be in" teams listed (IMO) only Oklahoma St. has a prohibitively better resume than LSU.
Posted on 3/11/15 at 9:50 am to ipodking
quote:
Can't choke in the SEC tourney
There is no way to "choke" in the SEC tourney with a double bye.
Posted on 3/11/15 at 9:52 am to LSU Patrick
quote:
There is no way to "choke" in the SEC tourney with a double bye.
Exactly. We made it to the quarterfinals even with a loss....
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