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LSU Chances of Playoffs 2024 (Never Forget 2007 and lsumatt)
Posted on 11/1/24 at 3:25 pm
Posted on 11/1/24 at 3:25 pm
quote:Greg McElroy Talks LSU's Playoff Chances As 'Bubble Team' That Needs Help To Get In
“They’re a slight dog at home against Alabama, they’re a slight favorite on the road at Florida at about six, six and a half, and they’re a double-digit favorite at home against Vandy and Oklahoma. Win out would mean they’re 10-2 with head-to-head over Alabama and Ole Miss. So, they need to win out,” said McElroy. “Alabama? That would give them their third loss. But they need Ole Miss to beat Georgia so that Ole Miss win looks a little bit better and LSU is being measured against Ole Miss. They also probably need to hope that A&M wins out. They also need to hope that USC beats Notre Dame in the season finale.”
“So LSU needs quite a bit of help. I’m not saying that it’s completely out of the realm of possibility. But I do think, at this point, it’s probably out of their control as to whether or not they can get in,” McElroy said. “They just need help. They need other teams to lose.”
According to McElroy, LSU needs to win out:
Alabama (-2.5) vs. LSU = 45.5%
LSU (-4.5) vs. Florida = 67.3%
Vanderbilt vs. LSU (-7.5) = 78.1%
Oklahoma vs. LSU (-7) = 75.2%
It appears that LSU has a 18% chance of winning out.
According to McElroy, LSU also needs these four games to go this way::
Georgia (-5) vs. Ole MIss = 31.9%
Texas A&M (-3.5) vs. USCe = 64.3%
Texas (-6) vs. Texas A&M = 29.4%
Notre Dame (-3.5) vs. USC = 35.7%
For these four games, it appears there is only a 2% chance of the games going LSU's way.
If McElroy is right and we combine these percentages, it appears that LSU has about a 0.4% chance of making the playoffs considering these eight games at this time.
11
Posted on 11/1/24 at 3:34 pm to Salviati
quote:
If McElroy is right
NOBODY in the national media is looking at the tiebreakers.
LSU doesn't need much help at all outside of winning out.
we are in a GREAT spot as far as tie breakers to get into the SEC CG.
win that and we're in.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 3:35 pm to Salviati
So dumb. We win out and we are in ATL playing to be in OR 10-2 sitting at home and getting in 100%
Posted on 11/1/24 at 3:36 pm to Salviati
quote:
LSU has about a 0.4% chance of making the playoffs considering these eight games at this time.
That's too much math for something irrelevant. LSU simply must win the rest of its games. From there they should have a pretty decent shot. So are so many other things that can happen that would help LSU's chances of getting in.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 3:46 pm to Salviati
Fake news
10-2 and we are hosting if not playing in SECCG
10-2 and we are hosting if not playing in SECCG
Posted on 11/1/24 at 4:04 pm to Salviati
It’s a good stab at it OP but this analysis is too naive and has errors in various spots.
The big issue is that win odds are correlated once you start projecting multiple results out.
Let’s take your 45.5% chance to beat Bama as a given for example. In the world where LSU does beat Bama, I promise you their odds of winning the remaining games are much better than what’s listed. The 67% odds against Florida are a projection of all possible LSU teams including the 54.5% that lose to Bama. LSU’s odds of beating Florida will go up if they beat Bama. And if they win both the odds of beating Vandy go up, and so on. This is because each win, particularly the win in an underdog situation, shows LSU is better than oddsmakers currently think.
The other issue is that I think it’s just not correct to assume that Ole Miss needs to beat Georgia. It’s generally true that LSU will need to see some losses spread out among the teams currently ahead of them. But you don’t need any specific result right now.
The big issue is that win odds are correlated once you start projecting multiple results out.
Let’s take your 45.5% chance to beat Bama as a given for example. In the world where LSU does beat Bama, I promise you their odds of winning the remaining games are much better than what’s listed. The 67% odds against Florida are a projection of all possible LSU teams including the 54.5% that lose to Bama. LSU’s odds of beating Florida will go up if they beat Bama. And if they win both the odds of beating Vandy go up, and so on. This is because each win, particularly the win in an underdog situation, shows LSU is better than oddsmakers currently think.
The other issue is that I think it’s just not correct to assume that Ole Miss needs to beat Georgia. It’s generally true that LSU will need to see some losses spread out among the teams currently ahead of them. But you don’t need any specific result right now.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 4:20 pm to Dupont3
I do not think there is a scenario where LSU wins the last 4 games, finishes 10-2, and does not make the SEC Championship Game. If LSU wins the SEC, it is a top 4 national seed with a first-round bye in the playoffs. While it may be a long shot, saying LSU does not control its own destiny is simply wrong.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 4:21 pm to Salviati
quote:
Texas A&M
Will never root for these figs to win. They could be playing serial killers and I'd root for the serial killers
Posted on 11/1/24 at 4:22 pm to Salviati
We don’t need OM to beat UGA and certainly not USC over ND
If this Calculator is correct by winning out we get to Atlanta in most of the likely scenarios.
If this Calculator is correct by winning out we get to Atlanta in most of the likely scenarios.
This post was edited on 11/1/24 at 4:23 pm
Posted on 11/1/24 at 4:29 pm to cvb0709
quote:
I do not think there is a scenario where LSU wins the last 4 games, finishes 10-2, and does not make the SEC Championship Game. If LSU wins the SEC, it is a top 4 national seed with a first-round bye in the playoffs. While it may be a long shot, saying LSU does not control its own destiny is simply wrong.
there are scenarios out there where LSU would not be in the SEC CG even if they finish at 10-2.
in most of the "most likely to happen" scenarios, we would get in on tie breakers. but this is the SEC, so anything can happen between now and then.
so we do not control our own destiny at this time.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 5:06 pm to Salviati
Apparently, many posters disagree with McElroy's analysis concerning games not involving LSU. I like the optimism; no problem here. LSU just needs to win out.
If LSU just needs to win out to make the playoffs:
Alabama (-2.5) vs. LSU = 45.5%
LSU (-4.5) vs. Florida = 67.3%
Vanderbilt vs. LSU (-7.5) = 78.1%
Oklahoma vs. LSU (-7) = 75.2%
It appears that LSU has a 18% chance of winning out to make the playoffs.
If LSU just needs to win out to make the playoffs:
Alabama (-2.5) vs. LSU = 45.5%
LSU (-4.5) vs. Florida = 67.3%
Vanderbilt vs. LSU (-7.5) = 78.1%
Oklahoma vs. LSU (-7) = 75.2%
It appears that LSU has a 18% chance of winning out to make the playoffs.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 5:08 pm to Salviati
BK blew it in another big game. ATM punked him in the 2nd half big time. Team has no business in playoffs with 3 losses. None.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 6:40 pm to Salviati
The only way LSU makes the playoff field win is by winning out.
Thus we're going to know very soon if we will make the playoff. We lose to Bama our season is over.
Thus we're going to know very soon if we will make the playoff. We lose to Bama our season is over.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 10:03 am to Salviati
For which he has no clue!
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