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LSU Basketball Tourney Resume - Ranking and Metrics
Posted on 1/12/18 at 1:53 pm
Posted on 1/12/18 at 1:53 pm
2/5/18 Update.....
LSU is still in contention for a tourney spot and Florida is not a "must-win" on Wednesday. The bubble is always soft and there is plenty of time for teams to play themselves on or off. LSU's schedule sets up relatively well to finish strong.
As many now know, the NCAA adjusted the selection criteria and the "team sheets" that the committee members will use this year.
Big change is more credit for road/neutral wins (which benefits LSU at this point), a change in tiering and I think most importantly they are finally de-emphasizing RPI and formally including KenPom, KPI, BPI and Sagarin rankings (all viewed as definitely more representative than RPI)on the team sheets. This link will take to you to the NCAA website and current team sheets (LSU sheet will be on page 75 of the PDF).
NCAA Basketball Team Sheets as of 2/4/18
As of this morning, LSU is ranked as follows:
Result-Based Metrics:
RPI (per NCAA site): 75
KPI: 47
SOR (strength of record): 65
Average: 62
Predictive Metrics:
BPI (ESPN): 71
KenPom: 68
Sagarin: 70
Average: 70
Overall Average: 66
For the sake of argument, Lunardi's 2/5 bracket has NC State, Kansas State, Va Tech and Boise as the last 4 in. The "numbers" aren't everything by any stretch but those 4 teams average ranking ranges from 45 to 53.
As many have pointed out, LSU has 6 top 50 RPI wins and 4 "quadrant 1" wins which is incredibly good.
There are a ton of variables but LSU likely needs to win at least one more road game and hold serve at home to get to 9-9 in conference and 18-12 overall heading into the SECT. That type of finish will easily move them up in the relevant rankings (RPI, BPI, KenPom, KPI, etc) into the high 40's or low 50's and very much in the mix.
LSU has to play well and grind out some close wins (no small task) but still a lot to play for.
LSU is still in contention for a tourney spot and Florida is not a "must-win" on Wednesday. The bubble is always soft and there is plenty of time for teams to play themselves on or off. LSU's schedule sets up relatively well to finish strong.
As many now know, the NCAA adjusted the selection criteria and the "team sheets" that the committee members will use this year.
Big change is more credit for road/neutral wins (which benefits LSU at this point), a change in tiering and I think most importantly they are finally de-emphasizing RPI and formally including KenPom, KPI, BPI and Sagarin rankings (all viewed as definitely more representative than RPI)on the team sheets. This link will take to you to the NCAA website and current team sheets (LSU sheet will be on page 75 of the PDF).
NCAA Basketball Team Sheets as of 2/4/18
As of this morning, LSU is ranked as follows:
Result-Based Metrics:
RPI (per NCAA site): 75
KPI: 47
SOR (strength of record): 65
Average: 62
Predictive Metrics:
BPI (ESPN): 71
KenPom: 68
Sagarin: 70
Average: 70
Overall Average: 66
For the sake of argument, Lunardi's 2/5 bracket has NC State, Kansas State, Va Tech and Boise as the last 4 in. The "numbers" aren't everything by any stretch but those 4 teams average ranking ranges from 45 to 53.
As many have pointed out, LSU has 6 top 50 RPI wins and 4 "quadrant 1" wins which is incredibly good.
There are a ton of variables but LSU likely needs to win at least one more road game and hold serve at home to get to 9-9 in conference and 18-12 overall heading into the SECT. That type of finish will easily move them up in the relevant rankings (RPI, BPI, KenPom, KPI, etc) into the high 40's or low 50's and very much in the mix.
LSU has to play well and grind out some close wins (no small task) but still a lot to play for.
This post was edited on 2/5/18 at 10:55 am
3
Posted on 1/12/18 at 1:54 pm to BayouWolf
As follow up and this is probably data overload for some but NCAA also changed the tiering to give more credit for road/neutral wins. They did so by bucketing the Tiers as follows:
Tier 1 - Results against opponents with RPI rankings 1-30 (home games), 1-50 (neutral) and 1-75 (road)
Tier 2 - Results against opponents with RPI rankings 31-75 (home), 51-100 (neutral), 76-135 (away)
Tier 3 - Results against opponents with RPI rankings 76-160 (home), 101-200 (neutral), 136-240 (away)
Tier 4 - Results against opponents with RPI rankings 161+ (home), 201+ (neutral), 241+ (away)
Based on those tiers, LSU as of today would be:
Tier 1 - 3-3.....3 wins (@ Arky, @ A&M, Mich (N)) and 3 losses (Kentucky, Marquette, ND)
Tier 2 - 2-0 (Houston and @ Memphis)
Tier 3 - 0-1 (SFA)
Tier 4 - 6-0 (rest of non-conference home schedule)
Tier 1 - Results against opponents with RPI rankings 1-30 (home games), 1-50 (neutral) and 1-75 (road)
Tier 2 - Results against opponents with RPI rankings 31-75 (home), 51-100 (neutral), 76-135 (away)
Tier 3 - Results against opponents with RPI rankings 76-160 (home), 101-200 (neutral), 136-240 (away)
Tier 4 - Results against opponents with RPI rankings 161+ (home), 201+ (neutral), 241+ (away)
Based on those tiers, LSU as of today would be:
Tier 1 - 3-3.....3 wins (@ Arky, @ A&M, Mich (N)) and 3 losses (Kentucky, Marquette, ND)
Tier 2 - 2-0 (Houston and @ Memphis)
Tier 3 - 0-1 (SFA)
Tier 4 - 6-0 (rest of non-conference home schedule)
Posted on 1/12/18 at 2:14 pm to BayouWolf
Posted on 1/12/18 at 2:18 pm to BayouWolf
If Epps makes that layup vs SFA, we are really sitting a lot better.
Posted on 1/12/18 at 2:26 pm to BayouWolf
Good job of outlining what the selection committee has been saying for a while now...who you play, who you beat and where you beat them matters more than "bad losses" or conference standings.
The great news for LSU is that even though they had a pretty weak OOC schedule, they got through it without any really ugly losses and went 2-2 vs. the good teams in that group. The SEC (right now) doesn't appear to present any real opportunities for bad losses. In fact, just about every game is a chance for a good win.
I like looking at the CBS Sports "Nitty Gritty" report. It breaks the schedule/results down well (though it does only use RPI). Right now both Alabama AND Georgia (LSU's next two opponents are ranked ahead of LSU in the RPI) Vandy is way down in the rankings, but that game is still very important because it's a great opportunity to add another road win to the resume.
The great news for LSU is that even though they had a pretty weak OOC schedule, they got through it without any really ugly losses and went 2-2 vs. the good teams in that group. The SEC (right now) doesn't appear to present any real opportunities for bad losses. In fact, just about every game is a chance for a good win.
I like looking at the CBS Sports "Nitty Gritty" report. It breaks the schedule/results down well (though it does only use RPI). Right now both Alabama AND Georgia (LSU's next two opponents are ranked ahead of LSU in the RPI) Vandy is way down in the rankings, but that game is still very important because it's a great opportunity to add another road win to the resume.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 3:38 pm to BayouWolf
LSU has a long way to go to get into the NCAA tourney but here is an updated snapshot as of today, following lasts nights impressive victory.
Results-based metrics
RPI: 81
KPI: 47
SoR: 71
Average: 66
Predictive metrics
BPI: 58
KenPom: 56
Sagarin: 61
Average: 58
LSU lost ~20 spots (on average) in the results metrics and stayed relatively flat on the predictive metrics compared to after the Arkansas game.
Good news is that LSU has 4 quadrant 1 wins which is very good for a team trying to get on the right side of the bubble.
Given the very tough schedule over the next 5-6 games, LSU will have every opportunity to rack up impressive wins (and need a couple on the road). Unlike recent years, 9-9 or 10-8 in the SEC will put LSU squarely in the mix. That’s very difficult and fairly unlikely but not a pipe dream either.
Results-based metrics
RPI: 81
KPI: 47
SoR: 71
Average: 66
Predictive metrics
BPI: 58
KenPom: 56
Sagarin: 61
Average: 58
LSU lost ~20 spots (on average) in the results metrics and stayed relatively flat on the predictive metrics compared to after the Arkansas game.
Good news is that LSU has 4 quadrant 1 wins which is very good for a team trying to get on the right side of the bubble.
Given the very tough schedule over the next 5-6 games, LSU will have every opportunity to rack up impressive wins (and need a couple on the road). Unlike recent years, 9-9 or 10-8 in the SEC will put LSU squarely in the mix. That’s very difficult and fairly unlikely but not a pipe dream either.
This post was edited on 1/24/18 at 3:40 pm
Posted on 1/24/18 at 3:43 pm to BayouWolf
we HAVE to steal one of the next two road games.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 3:58 pm to The Truth 34
It's doable considering our success on the road so far this year, and we may just catch Auburn or Tennessee looking past us.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 4:10 pm to The Truth 34
quote:
we HAVE to steal one of the next two road games.
These next 4 games will determine if LSU hasn't anything signficant to potentially play for in March
@ Auburn
@ Tenn.
Arkansas
@ Florida
That's a brutal 4 game stretch, but one that provides great opportunity. If they can go 2-2, then they'll still have much to play for in the final 7 games. From a personnel stand point Auburn may be the best matchup
Posted on 1/24/18 at 4:55 pm to Alt26
quote:
From a personnel stand point Auburn may be the best matchup
yep, no bigs to destroy us inside. i'd love to stun bruce pearl on his home floor saturday afternoon.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 5:07 pm to The Truth 34
Not sure how stunning it will be... not sure if line is out but it’s probably in the +7 - +9 range???
Posted on 1/24/18 at 5:12 pm to AZTiger7072
well, they're 17-2 (5-1) and play really well at home, so i'd be shocked if we beat them.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 7:58 pm to The Truth 34
A win at Auburn would put our RPI back at around 60. Honestly our RPI will probably not even go down if we lose.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 8:12 pm to The Truth 34
Its not stealing to win on road. That's nonsense.
Go on the road and play well and win.
Otherwise Lsu is a nice nit team. Home games too...50/50 to get to NYC.
Win 3 out of 4 of next 4.
Go on the road and play well and win.
Otherwise Lsu is a nice nit team. Home games too...50/50 to get to NYC.
Win 3 out of 4 of next 4.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 8:22 pm to CelticDog
Winning on the road is the hardest thing to do in college athletics.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 9:43 pm to The Truth 34
Agreed. We haven’t held serve at home so will need to figure out a couple tough road wins to keep in the discussion. Reality is, I anticipate 90% of the rest of the games to be going down to the last under 4 media timeout with both teams having a real shot to win. Makes for very exciting and nerve wracking watching. Hopefully the guys continue to gain confidence in closing.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 9:49 pm to BayouWolf
Update the OP. You're going to confuse the jizz brains here with the old info.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 9:53 pm to Alt26
If we want in the tourney, we need to steal 2 games on the road out of UF, Auburn, Tennessee and not drop anymore bad games. Those two losses to bad teams are backbreakers. 2x wins against Arky and A&M would go a long way too.
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