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LSU @ Tennessee MBB Preview; Sat. 1/4; 11:00 CST | SECN

Posted on 1/3/20 at 9:34 am
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
68289 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 9:34 am
The NET rankings were released this week, so the below rankings reflect what's in the NET as of today (12/17/19). NET rankings early on change drastically week over week as we get into conference play, so expect things to look really different a few weeks from now overall.

(#37) (8-4) LSU
Quad 1 = 0-2
Quad 2 = 2-3
Quad 3 = 1-0
Quad 4 = 5-0

W 74-57 (#38) Liberty
W 96-83 (#90) Rhode Island (Neutral)
W 73-58 (#130) Missouri St.
W 88-79 (#161) Bowling Green
W 76-65 (#206) Nicholls St.
W 77-50 (#267) UMBC
W 109-59 (#327) Northwestern St.
W 90-54 (#342) New Orleans
L 82-84 (#43) @ VCU
L 68-70 (#57) USCw (Neutral)
L 63-74 (#61) ETSU
L 78-80 (#73) Utah State (Neutral)

(#71) (8-4) Tennessee
Quad 1 = 2-3
Quad 2 = 0-1
Quad 3 = 1-0
Quad 4 = 5-0

W 72-69 (#43) VCU (Neutral)
W 75-62 (#74) Washington (Neutral)
W 82-63 (#182) Murray St.
W 58-46 (#187) Chattanooga
W 78-63 (#190) UNC-Asheville
W 75-53 (#239) Jacksonville St.
W 72-43 (#245) Florida A&M
W 76-41 (#341) Alabama St.
L 47-51 (#13) Memphis
L 57-60 (#25) Florida St. (Neutral)
L 48-68 (#29) Wisconsin
L 66-78 (#80) @ Cincinnati


LSU as of recent
LSU is coming into this contest picking up a poor 2 game stretch OOC against ETSU and USC with a win over a previously undefeated Liberty team in what was a pretty dominating win. LSU finished up most of the OOC play (Texas still to come end of month) a little disappointing 8-4 with 3 2 point losses all away from home (@ USC, @ VCU, Utah St neutral) then the very disappointing home loss to ETSU in which we never were really in it in 2nd half. Marlon Taylor is finally back, but really hasn't been a factor since coming back against ETSU. He will provide much better depth than we've been used to seeing this year though.

Tennessee as of recent
Tennessee started off the year well at 5-0 then slipped a bit as struggling offense has been their theme the latter part of OOC play scoring less than 60 points 4 of their last 8 games. What's devastating for them is Lamonte Turner just got hurt and is out for their season and was arguably one of their best players and only true PG. With him out, they also only have 8 scholarship players available to play now on the season. Kenpom ranks Tennessee's offense 9th in the SEC but 6th in defense. They play a glacially slow pace which ranks last in the conference and 312th in the country...that wont get any quicker probably with Turner out for the season now either.

Tennessee projected starters
C (6'9, 212) rJR. John Fulkerson
PF (6'6, 215) JR. Yves Pons
SF (6'7, 178) FR. Davonte Gaines
SG (6'5, 193) SR. Jordan Bowdon
PG (6'6, 208) FR. Josiah-Jordan James

John Fulkerson was a bit of a journeyman at Tennessee who finally his 4th year is starting and is doing a solid job. He's averaging 11.6 points and 5 boards a game. He's put on a ton of weight this year as previously he was listed under 200 pounds as Tennessee wants him being the pseudo-center for the team really. Fulkerson leads Tennessee with a 23.5 PER on the season. Efficient player and a massively improved one from a year ago. He is no 3 point thread, so he is easier to guard on defense in that respect.

Yves Pons they list as a guard/forward but he's basically play a stretch 4 type at Tennessee this year and Barnes calls him a forward although he will shoot a decent bit of 2's. He's another massively improved player at Tennessee from last year averaging 11 points and 5 boards game with an amazing 2.3 blocks for a guy only 6'6. He's a tough matchup on defense. Pons' PER on the season is 17.5.

Davonte Gaines is the new starter in place of Turner as Tennessee will move their previous wing James to PG. Gaines is a freshman and just isnt quite ready for this increased role he will now be getting. In his first start against Wisconsin last week he 6 points, 4 boards on 2 of 8 shooting in 26 minutes. He is only shooting 33% from the floor this season but still has a PER of 19.8.

Jordan Bowdown now has a monumentally tough role with Turner out for the season as he will probably have to be jacking up even more 3's than he ever has before to keep Tennessee's offense from going archaic. About half of Bowdon's shot come from 3 and he's 34% shooter from there. The senior's PER is at 14.1 on the season.

Josiah-Jordan James got moved to PG with Turner being out for the season now. He is Tennessee's 5-star freshman and has had an ok season. He did not have a great start at PG for Tennessee against Wisconsin with Turner out scoring 4 on 1 of 6 shooting with 5 assists and 3 turnovers. His PEr on the season is just 9.4 and he's only a 36% guy from the floor. The PG role will be really tough for James to assume this season, and probably wont bring out his best qualities.

Tennessee top bench players
PF (6'8,224) FR. Oliver Nkamhoua
SG (6'6, 196) rJR. Jalen Johnson
PF (6'9, 207) FR. Drew Pember

This is not a strong bench by any shape of the imagination for Tennessee with 2 freshmen being 2 primary guys on it now with a struggling junior. Nkamhoua has done a decent job rotating in as a big for Fulkerson mostly as he's averaging 5 points and 5 boards in 16 minutes a game. Johnson just hasnt been much of a factor in 11 minutes a game this year with 2.6 points and 31.6% from 3 as a SG. Pember isn't a guy they want to play much, but he will have to play more now as an 8th guy. He had 9 minutes against Wisconsin and had just 1 made shot with no rebounds, so not particularly effective.

Tennessee presents a couple challenges for us, but 1 is definitely not their offense with Turner out now. We can really frustrate them offensively especially if we press them without a PG, although they are built to break a press overall with the height they play. We probably want to try it early to see what results we get, and if they get a few easy buckets, it's not worth it. Definitely want to speed them up with a wing play PG right now though. The Williams on Fulkerson matchup will be interesting down low. Kenpom is predicting a close win for TN right now, but that also might be taking Turner's stats into account this year. I think this is one we SHOULD win on the road, but we have just not been able to squeak out games away from home often this year, so I expect it will be a battle.

Projected LSU Starting 5
PF (6'6, 230) SO. Emmitt Williams - #5
PF (6'6, 240) SO. Darius Days - #0
SF (6'9, 235) FR. Trendon Watford - #2
SG (6'4, 205) SR. Skylar Mays - #4
PG (6'4, 205) SO. Javonte Smart - #1

Main rotational players
SF (6'5, 200) JR. Charles Manning Jr. - #11
SF (6'5, 210) SR. Marlon Taylor - #14
PG (6'2, 190) FR. James Bishop - #10
SF (6'5, 225) rFR. Aundre Hyatt - #15

Kenpom's Prediction: LSU 68 Tennessee 71
This post was edited on 1/3/20 at 10:43 am
Posted by SouthOfSouth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2008
43456 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 9:37 am to
Kenpom prediction is Tenn to win by 3.

44 Tennessee L, 71-68


I'm excited for this game.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
68289 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 9:38 am to
Yeah switched that, was on Tennessee's page when I posted that
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 9:40 am to
How are we 27 with that quad 1 and 2 record
This post was edited on 1/3/20 at 9:41 am
Posted by SouthOfSouth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2008
43456 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 9:41 am to
Posted by Rb52224
Member since Dec 2019
424 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 9:42 am to
Would be a big win to start conference play before two winnable games against Arkansas and Miss st at home
Posted by PiscesTiger
Concrete, WA
Member since Feb 2004
53696 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 9:44 am to
We can steal this one. Tennessee is badly missing firepower from last year. Tough to rebound when you lose your 2 all SEC guys.

The chips are stacked against us, but we win this and we are back in the conversation.
Posted by Adam4848
LA
Member since Apr 2006
18937 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 9:44 am to
What are Tennessee's quad 1 victories?
Posted by SouthOfSouth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2008
43456 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 9:46 am to
quote:

How are we 27 with that quad 1 and 2 record


Pretty sure the first paragraph was a copy paste error from the E Tenn St game before our last couple losses.
Posted by Roar 54
Member since Dec 2019
7 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 10:34 am to
Just get good point guard play we have at least two more wins maybe three. If Smart plays a good game we can win.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
68289 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 10:43 am to
quote:

Pretty sure the first paragraph was a copy paste error from the E Tenn St game before our last couple losses.



Fixed, forgot to delete all that
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
68289 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 10:45 am to
quote:

What are Tennessee's quad 1 victories?


VCU and Washington, althought Washington just dropped way down today to #74, so they are technically quad 2...I'm using warren nolan's net spreadsheet which hasn't updated for yesterday's games quite yet, so move that win down 1 to quad 2.
This post was edited on 1/3/20 at 10:45 am
Posted by Pnels08
Member since Jul 2014
9179 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 10:48 am to
This is a good chance to get a cheap road win. Tennessee will still probably be a solid team by the end of the year but right now they are adjusting to losing their best player.


Pick this win up and let them get progressively better throughout the year, looking good for the spreadsheets
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
40949 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 10:56 am to
quote:

Tennessee will still probably be a solid team by the end of the year


Absolutely not imo. This is Barnes’ worst team since he’s been here and I don’t think a sub-100 KenPom finish is out of the question.

I think this Tennessee team is playing on Wednesday in Nashville unless Vescovi can provide a huge spark

He’s not mentioned in the OP and still hasn’t been cleared but Barnes has indicated he will likely be a 25-30 MPG guy starting tomorrow if he’s cleared.

Team cannot even get in to their offense without Turner, especially not with JJJ playing point. Bowden has taken a huge step back and the rest of the team is role players masquerading as starters. Tennessee will be bringing in a 5 man HS recruiting class and 3 transfers (2 who are sitting out this season) next season to tell you what Barnes thinks of this roster.
Posted by Pnels08
Member since Jul 2014
9179 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 11:15 am to
quote:

Absolutely not imo.


by solid I meant around a 17 win team. But you'd know better than I would.
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
40949 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 11:22 am to
I think this team was probably a bubble team at best with Turner but without him they are unfathomably bad. Unless Vescovi is an All SEC player (highly, highly unlikely) I think they win 5-6 games in the league.

Barnes has done an awful job of roster management over the last 3 seasons. Has signed 1 decent player in the last 3 classes and lost 4 players to transfer and 2 to the draft.

He’s very lucky he has such a good class coming in next year or the heat would be starting to be turned up on him right now. He’s the 3rd highest paid coach in the nation and has left Tennessee with its worst roster in probably 25 years.
Posted by tiger81
Brentwood, TN.
Member since Jan 2008
18801 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 11:23 am to
We can, and absolutely should win this game. Tigers by 5.
Posted by basiletiger
lafayette, la.
Member since Aug 2007
2141 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 11:40 am to
as always solid pre-game break down Thunderbird.
Posted by tigerbait2010
PNW
Member since May 2006
29115 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 11:43 am to
Is it just laziness? Dude plucked top players all across the country at Texas, and Tennessee’s facilities are fantastic. I’m sure he has a nice recruiting budget too with the VOLS having to go nationwide in most sports
Posted by Darth Aranda
Naboo
Member since Dec 2016
2487 posts
Posted on 1/3/20 at 11:46 am to
KenPom projects us to go 19-12 (11-7) with a loss tomorrow. Would be huge to win this one and come back for the two game home stretch.

If that record projection holds true I think we dance
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