re: LSU -125 moneyline favorites vs Kentucky tom

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Vegas is really bad with college baseball to be fair

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Vegas does not set the line based upon who they think has the best chance of winning. They set the line at the spot where they think it will get an even flow of money in on both sides of the bet. Thats how vegas wins, it cant lose so long as the bets are even, Vegas always wins the juice.

LSU is a brand name in baseball. Even though Kentucky has played better this year than LSU, the betting public knows little about Kentucky baseball.

If it was the SEC basketball tnmt and LSU had won the regular season but was facing a hot Kentucky basketball team, Vegas would have to set the line to take into account that most people think Kentucky generally has a better basketball team than LSU.

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Vegas does not set the line based upon who they think has the best chance of winning. They set the line at the spot where they think it will get an even flow of money in on both sides of the bet.

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This lie gets repeated so much. Most games are far from even, and many casinos hedge with their own bets to cover larger discrepancies in money bet on each team.......but this keeps getting repeated.

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LSU is hot.
Holman is pitching
And the biggest…. Is Kentucky for real in a big ballpark?

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So bet the Under 10.5

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This lie gets repeated so much. Most games are far from even, and many casinos hedge with their own bets to cover larger discrepancies in money bet on each team.......but this keeps getting repeated.

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Yeah I think a better way to look at it is that casinos usually want the betting public on one side, and the sharps on the other. They might have way more money on the side being bet by the public, but feel good about it as long as the sharps are taking the other side.

But even that is an oversimplification as volume (and, consequently, the casino’s exposure) can be all over the place. So their approach with the line is going to be different on a game by game basis depending on projected volume.

There’s a lot that goes into it and I think it’s generally a little naive to think it’s all about getting even money on both sides.