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Message
re: Les Miles continually defies the odds and it pisses me off
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:17 pm to LuckyLee
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:17 pm to LuckyLee
quote:
It doesn't. Throwing it on 1st down there is beyond retarded. I just don't understand how this guy can make bad decisions and continually defy the odds. I have a degree in finance and I understand statistics on a basic level at least, this shite is supposed to even out eventually.
The fallacy in this reasoning is that you misunderstand the probabilities. It was a short, conservative, easy pass against a defense that was certain we would run it, to a great receiver who was having a big night and was matched up against a safety who could not cover him, with a quarterback who had a hot hand. The probability of an interception (the only really bad result possible) was very remote. The probability of missing a FG was at least as great, maybe greater. Also, Auburn had all its timeouts left, so they could have (and presumably would have) stopped the clock immediately after each running play, so we wouldn't have even run much time off the clock.
Bottom line: Play conservatively, run three times and kick a FG, and we're up by two with just under a minute left, kicking off to Auburn. Go for the score against a defense not geared to stop it, and and we're either up by five, or possibly seven, with about the same amount of time left, or we fail to score the TD and just kick a FG anyway. If the truly horrible and unlikely disaster happens, then we lose in either situation, either by missing a FG or getting intercepted.
This is where most people who think Miles makes stupid decisions miss the boat. They just don't think the situation through and understand it as well as he does. He takes CALCULATED risks that increase our chances of winning the games. He doesn't DEFY the odds, he RELIES on them....because they are in his favor.
0
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:26 pm to LuckyLee
quote:
Tuberville
1-3 vs. Les Miles. Won-Lost record inferior to Miles at LSU.
quote:
Meyer
1-2 vs. Les Miles. Won-Lost record inferior to Miles at LSU.
quote:
Richt
1-0 vs. Les Miles. Won-Lost record inferior to Miles at LSU.
quote:
Saban
0-1 vs. Les Miles. Won-Lost record inferior to Miles at LSU...with the SAME PLAYERS (at least according to you gumps).
quote:
Spurrier
0-1 vs. Les Miles. Won-Lost record inferior to Miles at LSU.
quote:
There's 5.
Yep, there's 5, alright. 5 coaches who are a combined 3-7 against Les Miles, have records that are inferior to Miles' during the time he's been at LSU, and have fewer total championships (national, SEC, divisional) than Les Miles over that time frame.
You might want to revisit your original post in this thread and concentrate on that last sentence. It was your most recent brush with lucidity.
Fear the HAT!
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:30 pm to LuckyLee
quote:
There's 1 minute left on the clock...You've been running it on them to get it to their 20.
Maybe Miles is a genius and I'm a retard.
So, doing the completely unexpected is wrong? Maybe they should have asked Tubby what defense he was prepared for and ran a play that it was designed for.
Also, if there is only 1 minute left, why do you have a problem with throwing the ball?
Man, this is a pretty uneducated post.
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:30 pm to Nuts4LSU
Both Tuberville and Richt's best seasons are better than Miles'. You were the first 2 loss champ ever. The title is legit, but don't act like Tubs and Richt haven't had great teams also.
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:31 pm to ShreveportBama
quote:
I would take Meyer and Richt over Miles
Strange. Both have just as much talent as Miles, according to every recruiting publication in the country's last five years of recruiting rankings, yet both have fewer total championships (national, SEC, divisional) and inferior records. Meyer also has a losing record head to head, with LSU's win last year being almost entirely attributable to Miles' coaching decisions.
But would I expect anything less of a Bama fan, given the expertise the Bammers have shown at hiring coaches over the past 12 years or so?
This post was edited on 9/21/08 at 7:32 pm
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:37 pm to Nuts4LSU
Playing not to lose Tenn 05. Playing to win Auburn 08.
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:44 pm to LuckyLee
Uh oh, Now that Sabans recruits are all gone Miles goes and wins a game at Auburn with brand new QB's - This wasn't supposed to happen according to most Bama fans. This was supposed to be the year that LSU fell apart. Now we can see their panic as they try to come up with a new explanation as they illustrate more frustration with Miles continuing to win - dramatically, creatively, etc. 
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:45 pm to EST
anyone who has an avatar of john parker wilson shouldn't be allowed to post
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:47 pm to Hollywood7 Tiger
quote:
anyone who has an avatar of john parker wilson shouldn't be allowed to post
Be jealous
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:52 pm to LuckyLee
quote:
Both Tuberville and Richt's best seasons are better than Miles'.
A national championship is the best a season can get. Richt's and Tuberville's best weren't as good, regardless of record. If it was a crazy enough year for a 2-loss national champion, then EVERYONE had to deal with that craziness, including LSU...you know, the NATIONAL CHAMPIONS.
Now compare their worst seasons to Miles'. You can even limit it to just the three-plus years that Miles has been at LSU, allowing you to exclude their early years of "rebuilding" at Georgia (with talent that was ranked in the top 5-7 in the country according to all the recruiting rankings) and Auburn.
Miles has reached the pinnacle once so far. Neither Richt nor Tuberville ever has, although they have come close. But Miles has maintained consistency that neither of them have managed, even after having four (Richt) or six (Tuberville) years to get their programs built. Miles has a combined 3-2 head to head record against them (albeit 0-1 vs. Richt...for now) with talent that is comparable to theirs. He's never lost more than two games in a season; each of them has a four-loss season within the past two years. He's finished in the top 5 three times in three years, and is ranked there now; they have combined for ONE top 5 finish in those three years, and only one of them is ranked there now. During the time he's been at LSU, he's won as many SEC titles (1) and MORE divisional titles (2) and national titles (1) than both of them combined. Hell, in just three years, he's matched Tuberville's NINE YEAR totals in divisional and SEC titles, and exceeded his national championship total.
You want to make the argument that Richt and Tuberville are better than Miles? Fine. Go ahead. You will only relieve us of the duty to make you look stupid by doing the job yourself.
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:55 pm to EST
quote:
Uh oh, Now that Sabans recruits are all gone Miles goes and wins a game at Auburn with brand new QB's - This wasn't supposed to happen according to most Bama fans. This was supposed to be the year that LSU fell apart. Now we can see their panic as they try to come up with a new explanation as they illustrate more frustration with Miles continuing to win - dramatically, creatively, etc.
Yes, and it's been absolutely hilarious to watch for these past 21 months or so. But all good things must come to an end. If/when Saban does build Bama into a powerhouse, they'll no longer be so insecure and will be able to accept that both Saban AND Miles could be good coaches. If Saban fails, then even the Gumps won't be stupid and desperate enough to keep...oh, wait, never mind.
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:57 pm to LuckyLee
quote:
Be jealous
Yeah, because JPW is a superb fricking QB.
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:58 pm to Nuts4LSU
You corndogs are losing your touch. A Bammer comes on your board and runs a 12 page thread. That's like 500 yds rushing on the field. Where's the D.
Posted on 9/21/08 at 7:58 pm to LuckyLee
quote:
Both Tuberville and Richt's best seasons are better than Miles'.
Posted on 9/21/08 at 8:01 pm to ShreveportBama
quote:
I am more than happy running the ball between the tackles and making sure JPW doesn't frick up a game.
That's fine and dandy against the Western Kentuckys and Tulanes of the world, and can even work against a shitty overrated ACC team or possibly the worst team in the SEC. We used that approach against our crappy opponents, too. Try it on the road against a top 10 SEC team next week and see how it works out for you.
This post was edited on 9/21/08 at 8:02 pm
Posted on 9/21/08 at 8:09 pm to ShreveportBama
quote:
thats fine but why?
Record
Miles has a better record at LSU than Meyer has at Florida, with equal or lower-ranked talent.
quote:
Play-calling
Yeah, because running your Heisman Trophy quarterback 25 times a game so that he's hurt for your huge division showdown with Georgia is absolutely fricking brilliant.
quote:
Recruiting
Roughly a push.
I am beginning to understand the Gump approach to evaluating coaches. Probably a big reason why they've been so successful at doing that over the past several years.
Posted on 9/21/08 at 8:12 pm to Nuts4LSU
LuckyLes...you're a douche bag. Why do you even care?!?!
Miles has balls. He plays to win, not to lose. I love it. It was a great call and showed tons of confidence in his players. Greatest thing about the play/win is that it's killing you and the rest of the Auburn fans. If it wasn't, you wouldn't be here! HAHAH!!
Miles has balls. He plays to win, not to lose. I love it. It was a great call and showed tons of confidence in his players. Greatest thing about the play/win is that it's killing you and the rest of the Auburn fans. If it wasn't, you wouldn't be here! HAHAH!!
Posted on 9/21/08 at 8:18 pm to LuckyLee
Even though he really screwed up in the first half, I think that the way Lee played in the second half justified the LSU coaching staff having confidence in him to make the play at that point without turning the ball over.
Sure, there was some risk that he'd screw up. But he'd been playing really well and made some really nice plays in the second half.
Sure, there was some risk that he'd screw up. But he'd been playing really well and made some really nice plays in the second half.
This post was edited on 9/21/08 at 8:19 pm
Posted on 9/21/08 at 8:40 pm to LuckyLee
quote:
Both Tuberville and Richt's best seasons are better than Miles'. You were the first 2 loss champ ever. The title is legit, but don't act like Tubs and Richt haven't had great teams also.
Gee, thats great. I hope that the Auburn and UGA fans are very pleased knowing that. Because LSU fans are CERTAINLY pleased with Miles' best season.
Posted on 9/21/08 at 8:41 pm to JustSmokin
quote:
Then why don't we see too many college and pro coaches doing it in that situation? Are they just too stubborn to change?
Actually, we do, from the smart ones, at least. Bobby Bowden used to pull shite like that all the time back in his younger days when he was making his reputation. So did Tuberville. So did every coach who ever went for two after a TD (a 30-35% proposition) to win it instead of kicking the PAT (a 90-95% proposition) to tie it. They just aren't scrutinized for it to the extent that Miles is because they don't wear funny looking hats or have an opponent's entire fan base desperate to see them fail because they think it will confirm their desperate hopes that THEIR coach (predecessor of the coach in question) is the ONLY reason for the current coach's success.
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