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Message
Is LSU’s best case scenario to NOT make the SECCG?
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:33 am
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:33 am
Running the table from here on out and finishing at 10-2 with wins over Bama and Ole Miss is likely going to be more than enough for a top 12 finish
2nd half meltdown notwithstanding, we are better than A&M and I’d feel comfortable against them in Atlanta. I always will want to play for hardware and be the best on the field, but I’m not so sure risking a third loss against a team that can defensively give us fits like Georgia or Texas is really in our best interest if the goal is playoffs
2nd half meltdown notwithstanding, we are better than A&M and I’d feel comfortable against them in Atlanta. I always will want to play for hardware and be the best on the field, but I’m not so sure risking a third loss against a team that can defensively give us fits like Georgia or Texas is really in our best interest if the goal is playoffs
7
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:34 am to MrWalkingMan
Yes. Rest up for the playoff, assuming they don't shite the bed any more this season. 
Putting the death sentence on Alabama's season is our prize.
Putting the death sentence on Alabama's season is our prize.
This post was edited on 10/28/24 at 9:36 am
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:37 am to MrWalkingMan
Maybe. Depending on how things shake out, with two losses, we might still be on the bubble. I’d rather be in control of our own destiny and a berth in the SECCG would allow us to do that.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:39 am to MrWalkingMan
I want revenge on aggie if it comes to that. They are not a good team.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:49 am to MrWalkingMan
quote:
Running the table from here on out and finishing at 10-2 with wins over Bama and Ole Miss is likely going to be more than enough for a top 12 finish
If we do this then we are in the SEC championship game. We would only have 1 SEC loss with the tiebreaker over Georgia (common opponent Alabama). We would play either 1 SEC loss A&M or 1 SEC loss Texas (whoever wins their end of the year matchup).
This post was edited on 10/28/24 at 9:51 am
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:50 am to MrWalkingMan
I think both SEC championship teams should make the playoffs, even if it is a third loss...
Posted on 10/28/24 at 9:51 am to BigBinBR
quote:
If we do this then we are in the SEC championship game. We would only have 1 SEC loss with the tiebreaker over Georgia (common opponent Alabama). We would play either 1 SEC loss A&M or 1 SEC loss Texas.
What if it was a three or four way tie with Georgia/Texas/Texas A&M? I would think LSU is third/fourth in that scenario with 0 wins over any of the others.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:00 am to SEC Doctor
Vandy beat Bama. Bama beat UGA. UGA beat Texas, LSU dominated Arkansas, Ark beat Tennessee, Tennessee beat Bama.
So much more can happen in the next few weeks. No telling how this will end up.
So much more can happen in the next few weeks. No telling how this will end up.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 10:06 am to MrWalkingMan
TBH we could lose another SEC game and still make the SEC championship game theoretically the way this season has been. IF we win out, we are almost guaranteed a spot in the SEC championship game. However, I would no mind just missing the game with a 10-2 record and getting a 5/6 seed in the playoffs with a home playoff game.
The key is to keep winning and put A&M behind us. If we played them again, we would beat them especially on a neutral field. I just don't think we get the chance.
The key is to keep winning and put A&M behind us. If we played them again, we would beat them especially on a neutral field. I just don't think we get the chance.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 11:06 am to BigBinBR
quote:
Running the table from here on out and finishing at 10-2 with wins over Bama and Ole Miss is likely going to be more than enough for a top 12 finish
quote:
If we do this then we are in the SEC championship game. We would only have 1 SEC loss with the tiebreaker over Georgia (common opponent Alabama). We would play either 1 SEC loss A&M or 1 SEC loss Texas (whoever wins their end of the year matchup).
The Southeastern Conference (SEC) uses a series of tiebreaker procedures to determine the teams that will participate in the SEC Football Championship Game:
Head-to-head competition: The tied teams play each other
Record against common opponents: The tied teams' records against common conference opponents are compared
Record against the highest-ranked common opponent: The tied teams' records against the highest-ranked common opponent are compared
Cumulative conference winning percentage: The tied teams' cumulative conference winning percentages are compared
Capped relative scoring margin: The tied teams' capped relative scoring margins are compared
Random draw: The tied teams are randomly selected
Running the table from here on out and finishing at 10-2 with wins over Bama and Ole Miss is likely going to be more than enough for a top 12 finish
quote:
If we do this then we are in the SEC championship game. We would only have 1 SEC loss with the tiebreaker over Georgia (common opponent Alabama). We would play either 1 SEC loss A&M or 1 SEC loss Texas (whoever wins their end of the year matchup).
The Southeastern Conference (SEC) uses a series of tiebreaker procedures to determine the teams that will participate in the SEC Football Championship Game:
Head-to-head competition: The tied teams play each other
Record against common opponents: The tied teams' records against common conference opponents are compared
Record against the highest-ranked common opponent: The tied teams' records against the highest-ranked common opponent are compared
Cumulative conference winning percentage: The tied teams' cumulative conference winning percentages are compared
Capped relative scoring margin: The tied teams' capped relative scoring margins are compared
Random draw: The tied teams are randomly selected
Posted on 10/28/24 at 11:07 am to theliontamer
quote:
I want revenge on aggie if it comes to that. They are not a good team
This is what has been pissing me off the most about Saturday. Literally beat their arse until we folded our damn selves
Posted on 10/28/24 at 11:17 am to MrWalkingMan
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/2/25 at 6:44 pm
Posted on 10/28/24 at 11:54 am to SEC Doctor
quote:
What if it was a three or four way tie with Georgia/Texas/Texas A&M? I would think LSU is third/fourth in that scenario with 0 wins over any of the others.
Most 3 or 4 way tie scenarios lead to LSU playing in the SECCG.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, which only applies if one team either beat or lost to all of the tied teams at that tiebreak stage. So in a 2-way tiebreaker between LSU and aTm, aTm would have H2H. But a 2-way tiebreaker between LSU and aTm isn’t all that likely.
Second and third tiebreakers are record vs. common SEC opponents and record vs. best common SEC opponent. This would come into play if all remaining tied teams at a given stage had played aTm. Most likely to be a factor in a 2-way tiebreaker with Texas, if Texas wins out.
Fourth tiebreaker is SEC opponents’ conference win%. This is likely to be the tiebreaker that determines most 3+ way ties.
So a few scenarios:
- LSU wins out, Texas wins out, UGA wins out, and aTm loses to Texas. 4-way tie between Texas A&M, LSU, Texas, and UGA. Texas A&M and LSU play for SEC title.
- LSU wins out, Texas wins out, Tennessee wins out, and aTm loses to Texas. 4-way tie between Texas A&M, LSU, Texas, and Tennessee. If UGA beats Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Texas play for SEC title. If Ole Miss beats UGA, Texas A&M and LSU play for SEC title.
- LSU wins out, Texas wins out, aTm loses to Texas, UGA beats Tennessee but loses another game. 3-way tie between Texas A&M, LSU, and Texas. If UGA loses to Ole Miss, Texas A&M and LSU play for SEC title. If UGA loses to Florida, Texas A&M and Texas play for SEC title.
- LSU wins out, Texas A&M wins out, and UGA wins out. 2-way tie for 2nd between LSU and UGA. Texas A&M and LSU play for SEC title.
- LSU wins out, Texas A&M wins out, and Tennessee wins out. 2-way tie for 2nd between LSU and Tennessee. Texas A&M and LSU play for SEC title.
The point is that most tiebreak scenarios between LSU, UGA, Tennessee, and Texas favor LSU.
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