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re: Is LSU ready to be a playoff contender yet?

Posted on 1/19/19 at 9:53 am to
Posted by Lonnie4LSU
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2008
9525 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 9:53 am to
“ couple of bounces”

We have to analyze what happened as opposed to fantasizing over what didn’t happen.

2016 Florida L. 2017 Troy L as well as 3 others. 2018 Florida L and A&M L. 3 years of embarrassing losses to Bama. What is there in those which would lead anyone to assume we are play off material? Other than wishful thinking.
Posted by cj2002
louisiana
Member since Nov 2007
2027 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 10:00 am to
quote:

If we aren't a legit playoff contender next year I'm not sure when we will be. Senior QB, stout defense, two stud freshmen RBs. Time to go get it.



All this is great, but without a quality Oline, we won't beat the really good teams.
Posted by Hook Em Horns
350000 posts
Member since Sep 2010
15087 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 10:46 am to
Well hate to break it to you but your first lost is in Austin.
Posted by TigerLunatik
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Jan 2005
93685 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 10:48 am to
quote:

Well hate to break it to you but your first lost is in Austin.

Nah, I don't think Opposite Man is a Texas fan. He is a Tigers fan, so a loss in Austin won't be a concern.
Posted by Fishhead
Elmendorf, TX
Member since Jan 2008
12172 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 10:53 am to
quote:

Ask me around November 5th.
FIFY
Posted by TigerJeff
the Emerald Coast
Member since Oct 2006
16356 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 11:58 am to
Big 12. “Weak”
Posted by OppositeMan
Member since Apr 2018
1853 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 12:30 pm to
quote:

Well hate to break it to you but your first lost is in Austin.


Yeah, I get saying that now...you want your team to win.

Objectively, you're probably going to lose. I say this, because you'll need to score a lot of points to win, and you simply don't match up well at all to be able to do this.

The bottom line is that you lose too much on defense, and this game is early in the year. You're up against a team with a very, very heavy experience edge over you, and we do still have better players than you, in general.

But you could win. I hope you don't. I give you around a 30% chance...it'd be less if the game wasn't in Austin.

I think you'll have a great shot to win in 2020, though...but then there's that Tiger Stadium factor...I give you about a 50% chance in that game, as of right now.
This post was edited on 1/19/19 at 12:31 pm
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
202868 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

If we dont win the west next year, i dont think O ever will



Why you say this???? Are you saying he can't improve??????
Posted by PetroBabich
Donetsk Oblast
Member since Apr 2017
4615 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 1:17 pm to
quote:

Burrow ends up in the running for the Heisman.


He should have a good year, but no way he is a Heisman contender.
Posted by OppositeMan
Member since Apr 2018
1853 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 1:28 pm to
quote:

If we dont win the west next year, i dont think O ever will


quote:

Why you say this???? Are you saying he can't improve??????


Look how much we lose and where, position-wise, after next season. Obviously Burrow and both DE's are the really big ones.

While 2020 doesn't look like your classic "rebuild season", it also doesn't appear, as of right now, to look like a season in which we'll all be sitting here talking about making a huge run and possibly winning it all.

And I don't think Ed has another 3-4 years in him here without at least making it to Atlanta or the playoffs.
Posted by tarzana
TX Hwy 6--Brazos River Backwater
Member since Sep 2015
26147 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 2:55 pm to
It's waaaaay too early to make any such projection. We can't have rash of injurys, like this past season, and there's always the ominous spectre of Bama in game 9. Another blowout loss to them won't cut it.

Even though I think LSU has a favourable schedule this year, we're not yet in the elite fleet like Clemson or Bama...the chosen few who EXPECT to be playoff bound each year.
Posted by TrevRollings29
Orlando
Member since Dec 2018
969 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

Well hate to break it to you but your first lost is in Austin.


Wanna bet?
Posted by OppositeMan
Member since Apr 2018
1853 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 3:19 pm to
quote:

It's waaaaay too early to make any such projection.


meh...no it isn't. Let's pretend we're healthy and project what will happen. If we have injuries, the projections change.

Posted by ecb
Member since Jul 2010
9338 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 4:18 pm to
Win the west and they will be
Posted by geauxjo
Gonzales, LA
Member since Sep 2004
14708 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 4:58 pm to
quote:

We improved over the year


Did we?

4-3 in the Oct Nov schedule. Included in that is a shut-out loss vs Bama, a one-score win vs an absolutely awful Arky team and a loss to an A&M team that was rebuilding with a new head coach after an abysmal season in 2017. I’d say the Ga win looked good. Out d played well most of the season and our O, except for a few bright moments looked fairly mediocre all season.

That said, we have to contend next season. If we don’t make a run next season, and the offense continues to struggle, E needs to be replaced and Orgeron needs to be held to his promise to hire a great offensive mind.

I think a 10 win regular season should be the floor. 11 would be great and show that this staff can get it done.
Posted by The Blue Stuff
Member since Oct 2015
1105 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 5:06 pm to
It depends on the qb
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 7:12 pm to
quote:

You could've stopped your drivel right here


Dude, just stop.

I just slaughtered y'all with facts and destroyed your narrative.

Have the fricking dignity and the balls to admit you've been beaten and bow out gracefully.
This post was edited on 1/19/19 at 7:13 pm
Posted by SEC Grapevine
SEC
Member since Sep 2014
502 posts
Posted on 1/19/19 at 8:10 pm to


Rant Myths are started by Dereck & Ben who both are paid to support Coach O and OC, defend the indefensible Offense, etc. One of their favorite refrains is the O-Line not giving the QB 3 or more seconds to throw. Two things here fall into the Myth category 1) O-Line is only a problem for LSU and if we had 'better players' that would fix things (players don't determine Scheme), 2) QBs should have 3-4 seconds to set, go through progressions and throw.


quote:

The scheme was severely limited by Oline play. I don't understand why people couldn't see that. It's my belief as of now that the anti O crowd actually saw it but would rather ignore the lack of depth and slam the coaches.


Max Protect limits the number of receivers to longer isolation routes in double coverage so it is a self-defeating Scheme that puts extra stress on the OL because of the lack of Spread, Receivers, & Time to throw -Phone Booth football exactly like what has plagued QBs for over 10 yrs.



The OLine: LSU vs ALA = no contest in the trenches - spread the field, you are never going to win vs ALA in the trenches, no one has.

If the OLine could just give Burrow 3 more seconds to survey the field, go through progessions, blah, blah, trenches.

The average time a QB has to throw the ball is 2.5 seconds. Anything more than that and Completion % drops off, sack rate goes up, as does % QB hurries. It is a constant with the variable becoming faster, not slower. "Build a wall" will not work.



This Trend information was through 2015 and things have gotten faster across the FBS & NFL and resulted in the benchmark of 2 secs or less being needed for a successful passing game, not to mention, RPO, spread, Tempo all things that LSU Offense is lacking due to Scheme/Coaching and Player Development. These are not quick fixes and as you mentioned teams with Innovative Offensive Coaches & Coordinators dominate from HS, FBS, to the NFL. For these and other reasons I will mention in a separate thread LSU should not be expected to ever make out of the SECW by beating ALA, much less contend for any sort of title without a complete Offensive Makeover. All of these basic Scheme characteristics can be found in every CFPNC contender:









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