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Message
re: Interesting Philosophy Mainieri uses
Posted on 3/30/09 at 8:40 pm to Coon
Posted on 3/30/09 at 8:40 pm to Coon
quote:
it better be a 100% sure thing.
I can understand that. But, that's a lot different than saying we predetermine our decision to let the runner advance.
I didn't see the play, but the way Hawthorne called it (Hannagriff confirmed his opinion), he clearly had time to get him at 2nd. Let's not pretend like it's a tough throw. What would be the error rate on a throw like that assuming it isn't rushed (the premise)? I would say it is a lot less than the difference between a runner scoring from 2nd with 1 out and a runner scoring from first with 1 out. That's why it's a bad decision.
0
Posted on 3/30/09 at 8:46 pm to moneyg
quote:Never make your first out at home.
Really? I can't agree with that either. Very strange.
Posted on 3/30/09 at 8:48 pm to moneyg
quote:
I think Mainieri is a very good coach, but I can't agree with that philosphy in a 1 run game in the 9th.
Runner at 2nd with an added out vs. runners at 3rd and 1st (possibly 2nd) without the added out?
You are nutz.
Any contact ties the game or a base hit wins it vs. any contact gets an out and the runner stays at second or a base hit only ties the game.
Posted on 3/30/09 at 8:49 pm to Geauxtiga
quote:
Never make your first out at home.
I agree with that. But, with the infield playing in, with a ball that doesn't get through, I'm not going home there either. That's a pretty easy out most of the time.
I can't imagine the odds of scoring on a ball that doesn't get through, with the infield playing in, is higher than the odds of getting a base hit with the next at bat.
Posted on 3/30/09 at 8:51 pm to DEANintheYAY
Now the double play comes into play to get you out of the inning--good strategy!
Posted on 3/30/09 at 8:51 pm to moneyg
actually, he said most of the time, they don't even make a throw home unless its a hot shot right at somebody, and if they keep him on the bag at 3rd, you pretty much need a hit to score the run
Posted on 3/30/09 at 8:53 pm to Meauxjeaux
quote:
Runner at 2nd with an added out vs. runners at 3rd and 1st (possibly 2nd) without the added out?
You are nutz.
Any contact ties the game or a base hit wins it vs. any contact gets an out and the runner stays at second or a base hit only ties the game.
No, you are missing my point.
If the play is there at 2nd, I think you have to take it. Answer this question:
Assuming it's not a close play (the premise of this argument), what are the odds that the pitcher is going to fail to make the play? 5% at the most?
That is less than the percentage difference between a runner scoring from first with 1 out (which you would have if you make the play at 2nd) and a runner at 2nd with 1 out (ignoring the runner and taking the "easier" out at first.
I think it's poor baseball. But, it's just my opinion.
Posted on 3/30/09 at 8:57 pm to josh336
quote:
actually, he said most of the time, they don't even make a throw home unless its a hot shot right at somebody, and if they keep him on the bag at 3rd, you pretty much need a hit to score the run
I don't have any stats on that so I can't argue intelligently, but that seems counterintuitive to me.
Posted on 3/30/09 at 8:58 pm to AstroTiger
quote:+1
also, if it doesn't go perfect, you've got a man at 1st and 2nd (or worse) with no outs.
get the out...
quote:
it's actually the catcher's job
On the coverages, we were always told third baseman calls who fields it with no runners/runner on first; the catcher/first baseman make the call when it's a play at home. Obviously, better angle/view of runner.
Posted on 3/30/09 at 8:58 pm to moneyg
i think it's more about not making the pitcher have to make a decision or a judgment call on the field. If it's predetermined then all he has to do is execute. Kind of like less moving parts, less can go wrong.
Posted on 3/30/09 at 9:00 pm to moneyg
quote:I agree with you. The throw to first should not be predetermined. If it is obvious that you can get the runner at 2nd (i.e. he's fallen between 1st and 2nd), then the pitcher (or the catcher telling the pitcher) should be able to decide to throw to second.
No, you are missing my point.
If the play is there at 2nd, I think you have to take it. Answer this question:
Assuming it's not a close play (the premise of this argument), what are the odds that the pitcher is going to fail to make the play? 5% at the most?
Posted on 3/30/09 at 9:01 pm to Kim Jong Ir
quote:Or bunted back at the pitcher real hard.
I agree with you. The throw to first should not be predetermined. If it is obvious that you can get the runner at 2nd (i.e. he's fallen between 1st and 2nd), then the pitcher (or the catcher telling the pitcher) should be able to decide to throw to second.
Posted on 3/30/09 at 9:02 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
Kind of like less moving parts, less can go wrong.
But there is a cost to that. A base hit scores a run with a runner at 2nd where it doesn't with a runner at first.
So, in the 9th with the tying run on base, I think you need to make the play if it's there. Personally, I'd make the play at 2nd at any point (assuming it's an obvious play)...but I can at least understand the philosophy of trying to prevent a big inning earlier in the game.
Posted on 3/30/09 at 9:04 pm to Kim Jong Ir
quote:
If it is obvious that you can get the runner at 2nd
That's the premise of this discussion. I wouldn't suggest taking unnecessary risk on a close play at 2nd. The assumption is that it is a situation where a decent throw gets the runner every time.
Posted on 3/30/09 at 9:08 pm to moneyg
quote:We are on the same page. Let the pitcher make the decision, but tell him that he must be SURE that he can get the out at second before he goes to second. To have the throw to first predetermined in all cases is not smart IMO.
quote:
If it is obvious that you can get the runner at 2nd
That's the premise of this discussion. I wouldn't suggest taking unnecessary risk on a close play at 2nd. The assumption is that it is a situation where a decent throw gets the runner every time.
Posted on 3/30/09 at 9:14 pm to Kim Jong Ir
quote:
To have the throw to first predetermined in all cases is not smart IMO.
I agree.
Posted on 3/30/09 at 10:58 pm to Coon
maybe ott didnt think he had much a chance as he did.after the play was over everyone seen that going to second would have gotten the out at second but in a split second he must of thought that first was a sure out.id bet he was thinking in his on mind.damn.i had the out at second. 
Posted on 3/30/09 at 11:34 pm to josh336
quote:
You know what makes college baseball awesome? Things like this where there isn't a correct answer, just opinions. But I knew someone would come in here and try to make it right and wrong. But I guess the evidence is in your favor, LSU is giving up tons of runs and losing ballgames
I never said that it would make you lose every game. I said
quote:
Also, I think your assumption regarding the # of runs that can be scored in college baseball is false. If you run up against the "wrong" team, that philosophy will eat you alive. Just my $.02.
I still think that you have to empower your players to make plays. Its actually quite basic baseball. Sac bunt hit hard at the pitcher the catcher (or 3rd baseman) has to tell the pitcher "2 2 2", then he wheels and turns and throws to 2nd. IF there is ANY doubt, then the players yell "1 1 1" and the pitcher takes the easy out at 1st. To have it predetermined, if that is the case and he wasn't just trying to protect his player, then that is BAD strategy in my book. NOT saying its wrong...but just BAD strategy.
Posted on 3/30/09 at 11:57 pm to DEANintheYAY
Nothing wrong with the play whatsoever. If anything, it shows Ott has confidence. Instead of trying to make a big play, just take an out and have confidence you're gonna shut down the next two.
Posted on 3/31/09 at 12:20 am to TigerGold4
If you're arguing against the strategy, then you don't fully understand baseball. It's always about the percentages with everything in the game. By taking away the possibility to throw to second, he's playing the odds. This works out because he has taken away the one "unknown" by making the decision already. The "unknown" is the liklihood of getting a sure out at second. On most bunts, it will be bang bang. And having played, I can tell you it is pure gut and feel. It's not as easy of a decision for the kid as it is for the fans in the stands. So again, take that element out, and play the percentages. Smart baseball.
As for the man on third, if you don't get that, well, forget about it. It's a little lengthy to explain, but the bottom line is, if you don't run on contact with one out, you need a 2 out hit. You force the action by making the infielder make a perfect play i.e. field it cleanly, on a ball hit basicly right at him, and most importantly, make him make a perfect rushed throw. Not exactly rocket science.
As for the man on third, if you don't get that, well, forget about it. It's a little lengthy to explain, but the bottom line is, if you don't run on contact with one out, you need a 2 out hit. You force the action by making the infielder make a perfect play i.e. field it cleanly, on a ball hit basicly right at him, and most importantly, make him make a perfect rushed throw. Not exactly rocket science.
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